New Campaign

People are starting to digest the effects of alphabetisation on the STV Council Ballot Paper, including Grant, who now wishes to be known as Grant Aardvark-Thoms. If I were him, I'd change my first name to Abraham for maximum effect, but there you go.

Anyway, people are considering if maybe it's time to change this, and randomise the order of candidates on the ballot paper. I'm not so sure about this, I think it won't actually change anything, it'll just replace an alphabetical advantage with a completely random advantage. Others suggest having each ballot paper have the candidates in a different order. Again, I'm sceptical, as this could mean that the way someone casts a vote is determined by when they get to the polling station. But a term given for this second method is 'rotation', and that got me thinking...

What if the voters did the rotating? This blog is launching a new campaign:

The Campaign for A Circular Ballot Paper

I knocked this specimen up in a few minutes. With four years of work, and a very large research grant for me, we might just be on to something...

Committees drawn up by Committee

A glance at today's Business Bulletin suggests that the List of Committees will not be ready to be discussed by Parliament until Thursday 7 June. I sincerely hope that they have the composition of each of those Committees ready by then as well. Regardless of whether they do or not, they might not have proposed members ready by then, so that will have to be settled on either 13 or 14 June.

This will give the new Committees the following dates to hold their first meetings:

19 June
20 June (morning)
26 June
27 June (morning)

The Parliament goes into recess on 30 June. Well, officially anyway. In reality it will rise for the Summer on 28 June.

Remind me, who was it who said "Devolution is like evolution, only it takes longer"?

The Executive takes a holiday

This one comes from HW, who has picked up on today's Executive Press Release about what John Swinney got up to over the weekend.

Now, by not bothering to report on the Finance Secretary's work until a couple of days after the event, and with the First Minister briefing journalists himself over the Holiday period, you could argue that this is the first waves of the promised 'efficiency savings': by not calling the staff in to work extra hours, you avoid having to pay them overtime. By not calling them in to work over a holiday weekend, you avoid having to pay them extra for that.

Of course, seeing as the First Minister did without them, and we now have to wait days for a press release anyway, perhaps there's scope to make further efficiency savings. HW suggests "a bomb under the lazy sods". I think a P45 or two might suffice!

Readers with sharp eyes (that's all of you, you're an intelligent bunch) will notice that I've finally got around to re-doing my links. I've got some new blogs in the Unearthed section and put a handful of them straight into the main links, most notably agentmancuso who makes a welcome return to bloggery.

Oh, and I've axed a few blogs that have been left on the shelf. More links, updates and ruthlessness to come in the not-too-distant future.

The Sunday Whip

There was only one vote taken this week, and as it was Thursday's vote for the Corporate Body, on whihc four places were available for which there were only four candidates, the whole thing had an air of a foregone conclusion and passed 103 votes to 0 with no abstentions. Basically, Members were going through the motions of having a vote, probably because the Standing Orders demanded it.

So with the week's only vote (and so, this post) being basically pointless, here is a rundown of those members who had better things to do:

45 of the SNP's 47 members voted. Gil Paterson (West of Scotland) and Shona Robison (the Public Health Minister) did not cast a vote.

33 Labour MSP's were present. Wendy Alexander (the Shadow Finance Secretary) was busy preparing her Very Hungry Caterpillar Speech, Claire Baker (Mid Scotland & Fife) didn't cast a vote (though her husband Richard did - are they going to cast one vote between the pair of them for the length of their time at Holyrood?), and like Rhona Brankin (the Shadow Rural Affairs Secretary) was probably busy preparing her notes on ship-to-ship oil transfer, while Cathie Craigie (Cumbernauld & Kilsyth) did not cast a vote. Helen Eadie (Dunfermline East) did not cast a vote this week, so the only division so far in which she has registered a vote is the First Ministerial Election. The same applies to George Foulkes, who may or may not have been at Westminster again. Charlie Gordon (Glasgow Cathcart) wasn't involved. Iain Gray (East Lothian) didn't cast a vote and was, I assume, either preparing his question on ship-to-ship oil transfer or putting the finishing touches on his second(!) maiden speech, which he delivered in the afternoon. Ken Macintosh (Eastwood) and Frank McAveety (Glasgow Shettleston) cast no vote, and neither did Michael McMahon (Hamilton North & Bellshill), which is a bit naughty as he's Labour's Chief Whip. Richard Simpson (Mid Scotland & Fife) didn't cast a vote and David Whitton (Strathkelvin & Bearsden) was the last of Labour's absentees.

For the Tories, only Nanette Milne did not cast a vote, thus playing no part in getting her fellow North East Scotland Tory Alex Johnstone elected to the Corporate Body.

The LibDems had six absentees. Ross Finnie (Shadow Health Secretary) was one of them, as was Jim Hume (South of Scotland). His absence is particularly amusing as he's been accused of neglecting his duties as a Scottish Borders Councillor, and his dual mandate is being cited as a reason for this: turns out he's missing both Council and Holyrood meetings - tut tut, indeed. Anyway, John Farquhar Munro (Ross, Skye & Inverness West) didn't vote (was he absent. or just asleep at his desk?), and Nicol Stephen was the only one of the Big 4 Leaders not to take part. Jamie Stone (Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross) didn't vote, and neither did Jim Tolson (Dunfermline West).

Neither of the two Greens made it to the vote, though I don't suppose that they were enthralled with either supporting this vote or looking like they were shattering the consensus, and Robin Harper spoke on ship-to-ship oil transfers, while Patrick Harvie was involved in the afternoon's proceedings. Margo MacDonald gave the vote a miss but spoke in the afternoon.

Maybe next week will bring us some meat.

More appointments

Firstly, the Law Officers. Elish Angiolini QC stays on as Lord Advocate, and is joined by Frank Mulholland QC as Solitictor General, having been supported by the Parliament without dissent.

Next, the Corporate Body. Tricia Marwick, who was due some sort of position, will be the SNP's representative. As trailed, Tom McCabe will be Labour's. Contrary to my earlier prediction, Alex Johonstone will double up as Tory Shadow Minister for Transport AND their Corporate Body member. Margaret Mitchell would appear to be the sole Tory backbencher, which is always a sign of trouble ahead. Anyone in the Tory camp know what's going on? Oh, and Mike Pringle is the LibDem representative.

Speaking of the LibDems, Nicol Stephen has finally extracted the digit and named his team. It seems that there was a good deal of wrangling involved, so he remains the Leader, but for how much longer? Robert Brown will take up the Parliamentary Business post and seat on the Bureau (a surprise, I expected him to get Education), and there has been no direct counterpart to Linda Fabiani, but John Farquhar Munro has been made Shadow Minister for Gaelic and Highland Culture.

Tavish Scott, Nicol Stephen's campaign manager and potential usurper for the LibDem Leadership, and former Transport Minister, has gone to Finance and Sustainable Growth (no surprise there), with Jim Wallace's successor as MSP for Orkney Liam McArthur taking Enterprise, Energy & Tourism, and new MSP Alison McInnes taking Transport and Infrastructure.

Jeremy Purvis takes the Shadow Education Secretary brief, and will also be Shadow Minister for Children and the Early Years. Donald Gorrie's successor Hugh O'Donnell will support him as Shadow Schools Minister.

Former Rural Affairs Minister Ross Finnie moves to Health (another surprise, I just assumed he'd keep the Rural Affairs portfolio), with Jamie 'seven mates' Stone taking Public Health and new MSP for Dunfermline West Jim Tolson taking Communities.

Margaret Smith takes the Justice portfolio (I was never sure who was going to get this), and she'll have fellow Edinburgh colleague Mike Pringle taking over Public Safety, as well as his post on the Corporate Body.

Mike Rumbles is the final Shadow Cabinet Secretary, taking Rural Affairs, with new MSP for the South Jim Hume taking the Environment.

Iain Smith won't have a portfolio, but he has been elected Convener of the LibDem Parliamentary Party, and technically, Michael Moore MP is still the official Deputy Leader of the Scottish LibDems.

Welsh lessons

*braces self for angry reaction from Welsh speakers, furious at the butchery of their language*

Anyway, in the midst of the formation of the Executive in Scotland, it's been far too easy to overlook Wales. For those who haven't checked, Labour now have 26 AMs, Plaid have 15, the Tories have 12, the LibDems 6, and there is one Independent. Labour attempted negotiations with the LibDems. They have collapsed. They have been attempting negotiations with Plaid, and these are at death's door. Plaid, meanwhile, is negotiating with the Tories and the LibDems to form a 'Rainbow' Coalition, and this could lead to Ieuan Wyn Jones becoming First Minister.

Now, this has raised an interesting question. If Plaid and the Tories can negotiate in Wales, what's stopping the SNP and Tories from negotiating in Scotland. I'm not the first blogger to consider this question but never let it be said that I don't know a good bandwagon when I see one.

Anyway, the question is, "Interestingly, Plaid doesn’t appear to have a problem entering into a coalition with the Tories, eventhough PC didn’t embrace the business community in the way the SNP has. Has Wales woken up to a new dawn where the Tories aren’t the bogeymen and women they once were? After all that Bliar and Brown have put us through, is Scotland mature enough to have that debate?"

I'm going to start by considering the wording of the question. Why is it a question of Scotland being mature enough to debate the Tories' involvement in government? It's not like Scotland has frozen the Tories out altogether. The 1997 wipeout (as Duncan points out) was caused by the voting system, not hatred for the Tories (though that helped!). They got enough votes in 1999 for 18 MSPs, and managed to win the Ayr By-Election not long after the creastion of Holyrood. There are Tory MSPs, Scottish Tory MEPs and a Scottish Tory MP. So Scotland per se has no problem with the Tories.

The issue is the SNP's "No deal with the Tories" rule. Now, this hasn't stopped informal understandings being reached between the SNP and the Tories at Council level, and it's almost certain that the new Executive will talk to the Tories on some issues. So why no formal Coalition? (I'm aware that the boat is likely to have sailed on this for the short term, by the way) Why is the rule still in place?

As far as I understand (and I may be wide of the mark here), the rule was instituted as a response to the Poll Tax. This means that it was drafted at a time before Holyrood, when there was no prospect of the SNP forming a government of any sort unless there were about 300 Parties in the Commons and the SNP ended up being the largest of them.

So if that's the case, then the ban is equivalent to being anti-American because of Vietnam. It was a valid reason at the time, but it's a little passé. Not only that, but it was designed to prevent the SNP propping up a UK Tory Government. It would have been written when the Scottish Parliament was still an idea, and never imagined the circumstances that the Tories might ever be in a position to prop up a Scottish SNP Government. Rather than being a signpost, setting out the SNP's position in a Hung Westminster Parliament, it's become a shackle, limiting the SNP's options in a PR Holyrood Parliament.

There's a cliché that I rather like: "the past is a different country - they do things differently there". Things have changed: the SNP is more sympathetic to business than it was in those days, when Alex Salmond was elected National Convener for the first time, and had a vision of turning the SNP leftwards away from the old 'Tartan Tories' line. Jim Sillars is out, Jim Mather is in. Conversely, the Conservatives are more accepting of devolution now - the fact that devolution is here has surely helped - and are even sympathetic to calls for more powers to be transferred Northward. So where at the time, the two parties were essentially diametrically opposed on practically everything, there's been a convergence, and the two have both moved a little closer. There's room for discussion and certainly room for negotiation.

The question is: can everyone involved dare to think the hitherto unthinkable?

Godwin's Law

Angus Robertson has been chosen as the new Leader of the SNP Group at Westminster. Alex Salmond is still an MP, but he has bigger fish to fry being First Minister. And Robertson's first job was to deal with a few choice remarks by the MP for East Lothian, Ann Moffat, whose love of devolution and the Scottish Parliament is such that she once called for powers to be retracted from Holyrood.

Today she turned her attention on PR, and you can see why she's peeved: without the 56 Additional Members provided by the List, Labour would have 37 Constituencies in a Parliament of 73: a majority of one. The fact that Labour would have come second would be quite irrelevant.

But in her attack on the system, she's gone for the "Hitler was elected by PR" line. If she'd said this online, a discussion on Godwin's Law would be triggered. I don't want to trigger it, but I do want to focus this bit: "proportional representation gave Germany Adolf Hitler and in Scotland to a lesser degree we've had the member for Banff and Buchan".

No, really, she said that. I'm speechless. Is she really comparing Alex Salmond with a man whose decisions were responsible for so much pain, suffering and death? I mean, I know that Labour predicted dire consequences for Scotland if the SNP should get in, but a new Holocaust? A quest for Lebensraum?! Come on...

She might not like proportional representation, but that's no reason for her to lose her sense of proportion.

Hypotheticals

I was bored the other day, so I tried to project what would happen at the next Westminster Election if the parties got the same level of support that they picked up on the Constituency vote on May 3. Taking this ropey premise, and applying some equally ropey methodology, I reckon that Labour would be on 31 (30 if Michael Martin goes for re-election), the SNP would be on 18, the LibDems on 7 and the Tories on 3. This would represent a post-war low for Labour (though, to be fair, there are fewer Constituencies now), but they'd still have a majority of the Scottish seats in the Commons. It would represent the highest number of Westminster MPs ever for the SNP (though there are some odd results in the prediction: I appear to have Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross as an SNP gain, but like I said, the methodology is ropey), and the lowest LibDem total since 1983, when the Alliance picked up eight seats (five Liberal, three SDP, if you're wondering).

I then worked out the outcome of a European election based on the Regional Vote results (I was really bored), and got three SNP MEPs (a record, and a scenario predicted by Grant Thoms in my Comments section), Labour two, the Tories one and LibDems one.

A few things

Of which the biggest is that Elish Angiolini is to remain as Lord Advocate, but will no longer be a member fo the Cabinet. The SNP had been calling for this role to be depoliticised while in Opposition and it looks like that's what's going to happen. Angiolini herself was always apolitical, and the fact that she's survived a change of government highlights that. It's likely that she'll be invited to Cabinet to give legal advice but unless such advice is needed every week, she won't be going regularly. John Beckett, however, will not be continuing as Solicitor General. It's not totally clear who's in the frame to replace him, but we do know that the Parliament will be discussing this tomorrow.

Also, it looks like the new Executive's first move will be to get rid of the tolls on the Forth and Tay. Assuming that all the SNP Members turn up to support this, and the Tories make good on their stance, that makes 63 votes in the bag for the Executive. Margo MacDonald might well support the move as well, so that would be 64. The Greens will definitely oppose, so it's down to the LibDems and/or Labour to come on side. Tellingly, Helen Eadie (Lab, Dunfermline East) has proposed the Abolition of Forth and Tay Bridge Tolls Bill, so it looks as though Labour (or at least, Labour in Fife) might well support the move.

Oh, and memo to Nicol Stephen: you do realise that you haven't publicised your Shadow Cabinet yet? The only other Party not to have done so are the Greens, who only have two members so there's hardly any point...

And finally, is it just a co-incidence that less than three weeks after Tommy Sheridan loses his seat, Ken Macintosh (Lab, Eastwood) proposes the Sunbed Licensing (Scotland) Bill?

What now for the SNP?

This is the last of my looks at the parties, and now that we have an FM and a Cabinet, it's sensible to wrap it up and think about the SNP's performance.

In 2001, the SNP went into the Westminster Election defending six seats, and came out of the Election with only five. Having lost two MSPs in the second half of the First Scottish Parliament (Dorothy-Grace Elder and Margo MacDonald), the Party went into the 2003 Election with 33 MSPs. They came out with only 27, immediately lost another (George Reid) to the Presiding Officer's post, and then booted another out, leaving them with only 25. In 2004, the European Election result was enough to terminate John Swinney's leadership, and the Party turned back to Alex Salmond, but in 2005 the SNP came third in the Westminster Election, losing second place to the Liberal Democrats. So to come back from a severe case of the doldrums and actually come first in the Election with 47 MSPs is a big thing.

I suspect that people are beginning to tire of the word 'historic' being used. I've tried to steer clear of it myself, but the fact remains that this is a big deal, and for the SNP, this really is a special moment. The SNP's 32.93% of the Constituency vote is a record, surpassing the previous high of 32.57% in the 1994 European Election. The Party has won in a record number of Constituencies, 21, compared with the 'First Eleven' in the October 1974 General Election. They came first in four regions, compared with two in 1999 and 2003, and two European constituencies in 1994. They now have the largest number of Councillors (though STV helped that to happen), and one of the jibes levelled at the SNP before the election was the fact that the Party 'has never run anything bigger than Falkirk Council'. The SNP is now in Government, so, yes, this is a major event, at least for the Party.

And yet, this is also the major challenge. Not only is this the first time that the SNP have taken charge, but it's also the first time that Holyrood has been led by a minority government. Now, it's possible that in the minds of the public, the two could become linked, so if minority government succeeds, it's the SNP who will take the credit. If, on the other hand, it fails, it's the SNP who take the blame, unless they manage to get the LibDems on board for a time, as Labour did in Wales following 18 months of minority government which saw the end of Alun Michael as First Secretary. In short, it's a gamble. If this works, the SNP are set for a strong spell, with extra supporters in key positions (Councils and Holyrood) to launch a good tilt at the Westminster and European elections, and will go into the 2011 Election in a position of strength. If it doesn't, the consequences will be disastrous.

Basically, the SNP have to make it work. The first week has passed off without major incident, but we have four years to get through. It's not impossible, though.

This Party Will Self-Destruct in...?

How strange. There are mutterings that Wendy Alexander's Leadership Campaign is poised for action, awaiting only the announcement of a vacancy before it starts moving. Meanwhile, Malcolm Chisholm has suggested that there could be a contest even if there isn't a vacancy, and that McConnell could actually be an incumbent candidate.

Alexander's campaign hasn't started yet to avoid accusations of disloyalty: she remembers The Heseltine Precedent, in which he challenged Thatcher, managed to undermine her position enough to drive her out, but then lost a subsequent ballot to John Major. However, the fact that there is a campaign brings to mind an images of vultures not so much circling as preparing to swoop on the carcass, regardless of the fact that said carcass is still alive.

McConnell, on the other hand, ought to bear in mind that incumbency isn't necessarily a bonus. He was, after all, the incumbent First Minister, and look what happened there.

I said yesterday (and I stand by my comments) that Labour are in a stronger positon than I expected, but they're now in real danger of undermining themselves. If they turn their guns on each other, then that's it, goodnight. They will not be capable of fighting anyone but other Labour MPs and MSPs.

To be fair, this row has been brewing since the death of Dewar. McLeish did defeat McConnell, but only by a whisker, and only in an emergency panic contest to meet the 28-day deadline to appoint a new FM. It was only McConnell's good will that prevented a wider election. The fall of McLeish was a different story. John McAllion couldn't get seven signatures, nor could Malcolm Chisholm (who was initially a 'unity' candidate, then the challenger who would force a contest - that this represented a 180-degree turn didn't really get noticed at the time), and Wendy Alexander wussed out, despite emerging as the only credible challenger to McConnell. McConnell then walked in to the Leadership, and his first act was to purge the Cabinet, and stuff it with loyalists. The battle lines have been drawn since then and it's only office that has prevented the start of warfare.

And so here we are. A Labour opposition that could be mightily effective is about to implode. What state will it be in come 2009? Or 2011? We can only wait and watch, but a thought occurs. The main reason Labour have had such a vice-like grip on politics for a decade isn't that they were the primary opposition to the Conservatives, or the 1997 landslide. The main reason is that the Tories turned inward, and the enemies became each other rather than Labour. It took until Michael Howard for that to stop, and it took David Cameron to give the party a veneer of credibility, at least in England.

The SNP (narrowly) avoided a 1992 moment on May 3, but the 1997 moment was still just over the horizon. Thanks not to the election, but to the aftermath, it might, just might, be visible again.

The Sunday Whip

In which I go through the voting records at Holyrood. Let's see how long this feature lasts!

What the voting lacked in quantity this first week, it more than made up for in significance. The PO and DPO votes were, of course, secret, and the vote for FM was entirely predictable: all the SNP & Green MSPs voted for Alex Salmond, all the Labour MSPs voted for Jack McConnell, Margo MacDonald abstained, while all the Tories and LibDems voted for Annabel Goldie and Nicol Stephen respectively, then abstained on the second round of voting.

We now come to the Ministerial votes on Thursday morning. It looks like Helen Eadie (Lab, Dunfermline East) wasn't in the chamber then, and neither were Liam MacArthur (LibDem, Orkney) and Margaret Smith (LibDem, Edinburgh West). George Foulkes (Lab, Lothians) was at the House of Lords so he has an excuse.

The Tories proposed - then withdrew - an amendment to remove Richard Lochhead from the list of Ministers. The LibDems proposed an amendment to remove John Swinney, and would have withdrawn it until Margo MacDonald insisted on voting for it. She was the only one who did. The entire SNP and Green group opposed the amendment, while 44 Labour MSPs, 15 Tories and 14 LibDems abstained. Ted Brocklebank (Con, Mid Scotland and Fife) appeared to miss the amendment altogether.

For the final vote on the list of Ministers, and the vote on the list of Deputy Ministers, things were simpler. All the SNP and Green MSPs voted in favour, of course, while the remaining Members present (44 Lab, 15 Con, 14 LibDem, Margo MacDonald) all voted to abstain. No rebellions.

A strange time for Labour

I've been gathering my thoughts on Labour, and I've come to a surprising conclusion: they are in a stronger position that I anticipated.

Let's start with the bad news: they are, indeed, the second party, and they are in Opposition. They failed to regain Dennis Canavan's stronghold of Falkirk West. They now have no constituencies in the Highlands. They have lost Edinburgh East & Musselburgh. Not only have they lost Central Fife (once Henry McLeish country), but also Stirling and Dunfermline West, failing to exorcise the demons on the Dunfermline & West Fife By-Election. They lost Cunninghame North (albeit only just), despite the challenge to the SNP vote from Campbell Martin, and with STV, they've lost a massive swathe of Councillors, lost first place there to the SNP, and Councils where they had control are falling to all manner of alliances designed specifically to get Labour out. Plus which, the knives are out for Jack McConnell.

So where are the rays of sunshine? Well, Cumbernauld & Kilsyth is still Labour. The loss of Labour's last Highland constituency was offset by the gain of a third Regional seat. The Party held on in Edinburgh Central, and in Linlithgow, and now has a Regional presence in the Lothians. Each of Labour's constituency losses in Mid Scotland & Fife was offset with the election of a Regional MSP. The Party held on in Aberdeen Central. Dumfries is still Labour, Strathkelvin & Bearsden has gone back to Labour and all three Renfrewshire constituencies have been held. The Party is only one seat off the lead (and with the news that the new SNP MSP for Livingston Angela Constance is pregnant, they'll spend a good part of the Autumn level with the SNP), and with attention focused on the Westminster succession and the race to be Gordon Brown's deputy, the heat is temporarily off Jack McConnell.

But how does Brown react to the new world? If he applies a confrontational approach to the new Executive, there's a risk he might get punished by the electorate in Labour's heartlands. With fewer Labour members in elected positions, and more members of other parties in their place, Scottish MPs might be looking over their shoulders. On the other hand, Brown can't be seen as giving in to the Salmond administration, certainly not with the challenge the Tories now pose in England. Any suggestion that he favours Scotland over England is curtains for his Premiership.

And the big question is, how long does McConnell last? He's presented his Frontbench team, but it's not much different to his Cabinet. McCabe leaves (The Scotsman says that this is of his own accord), Jamieson and Curran switch places and Alexander returns. Iain Gray comes straight back in as a Shadow Minister, working under Alexander and with the portfolio that he took when Alexander resigned as Enterprise Minister, and a handful of ex-Backbenchers come in. But Charlie Gordon remains a threat to McConnell's authority from within the Group, and Wendy Alexander is probably favoured from the new UK Labour Leader-Designate.

But what of Labour's opposition tactics? McConnell sounded petty in the debate for the First Ministerial election, which backfired. They acquiesced to the SNP Cabinet selection, choosing to abstain rather than oppose, despite complaining about the new plans, and they're planning to publish an alternative legislative programme. That last point is the boldest step and the most impressive one... if they get support for it.

I still don't know what to think about Labour's fortunes. They're still standing, and they're trying to fight. Sometimes this will backfire, occasionally they may win a battle, but the big question is McConnell's leadership. Until he is gone, or his challengers lose any credibility, there is a risk that Labour will turn its guns on itself, and that, more than the election, will prove disastrous for the Party.

Opposition Spokespeople

We now know who will Shadow the new SNP Executive in the Parliament for Labour and the Tories.

Jack McConnell is Leader of the Opposition, at least for now. Cathy Jamieson will be the Shadow Minister for Parliament, and former Culture Minister Patricia Ferguson will be shadowing Linda Fabiani at Europe, External Affairs and Culture.

Andy Kerr retains his Health portfolio in shadowing Nicola Sturgeon, and Lewis Macdonald stays with Kerr and the Shadow Minister for Public Health. Joining them is Johann Lamont as Shadow Minister for Communities and Sport.

Wendy Alexander will go up against John Swinney as Shadow Finance Secretary. Prepare for a very dull four years. Iain Gray makes his return to the frontbench as as Shadow Minister for Enterprise, Energy and Tourism (Gray had been Enterprise Minister before the voters of Edinburgh Pentlands remembered that they were Tories, and voted for David McLetchie), and Des McNulty will be Shadow Minister for Transport, Infrastructure & Climate Change.

Hugh Henry stays at Education, with Ken McIntosh coming in as Shadow Schools Minister. Pauline McNeill comes in as Shadow Childrens' Minister.

Margaret Curran takes over the Justice brief, in a straight swap with Cathy Jamieson. Paul Martin will be Shadow Community Safety Minister.

Rhona Brankin moves to Rural Affairs and the Environment (she had Deputised for Ross Finnie under Henry McLeish, and under McConnell between June 2005 and January 2007), and her Number 2 will be Sarah Boyack, who retains her Deputy Environment post.

Eagle-eyed readers will notice I haven't mentioned Tom McCabe. previously the Finance Minister. I've heard McConnell is putting him forward for a place on the Corporate Body.

Meanwhile, the Tories have announced their team:

Annabel Goldie leads, with her predecessor now Shadow Parliament Minister. Ted Brocklebank is Shadow Europe Minister. On her return to Holyrood, Mary Scanlon is appointed Shadow Health Secretary, with newcomer Jackson Carlaw Shadow Public Health Minister and Jamie McGrigor keeping his Sport brief but having Communities added to it. Derek Brownlee is Shadow Finance Secretary, newcomer Gavin Brown shadows Jim Mather at Enterprise, and Alex Johnstone is Shadow Transport, Infrastructure and Climate Change Minister. Murdo Fraser is Shadow Education Secretary, with Liz Smith working as his Number 2. John Scott is Shadow Rural Affairs Minister, and Nanette Milne finds herself at Environment. Bill Aitken is the Shadow Justice Secretary, and newcomer John Lamont goes to Community Safety. Interestingly enough, Margaret Mitchell's profile tagline hasn't been updated and she is still 'Justice Spokesman', which seems odd. I suspect she's heading for the Corporate Body.

No word on LibDem Spokespeople yet.

Cabinet

Well, we now have a Cabinet as well. The Law Officers haven't been settled yet, but the Ministers (sorry, Cabinet Secretaries) and Deputy Ministers (sorry, Ministers) have now been settled.

Anyway, we know about Alex Salmond's ascension to First Minister-dom. This also means he has to carry the Queen's handbag. His Department (yes, the FM now has a department) will contain Bruce Crawford, who will have the joyous task of dealing with the new Bureau and trying to get the Executive's business passed, and Linda Fabiani, the new Minister for Europe, External Affairs and Culture. I must admit to being concerned that there's a perceived semantic link between 'External Affairs' and 'Culture' (suggesting that Culture is a foreign concept), but Jack McConnell was Henry McLeish's Minister for Education, Europe and External Affairs, so there's a precedent. Jack McConnell, however, was not in possession of an Italian knighthood, whereas Linda Fabiani is. By the way, if she requires a SpAd with a working knowledge of three European languages (plus how to say 'May you have a healthy sex life' in Estonian) to go on trips, then she only need e-mail me for my CV.

Nicola Sturgeon is the new Deputy First Minister, and is also Cabinet Secretary for Health & Wellbeing. Shona Robison will be the Minister for Public Health. Most people had tipped Shona Robison to be the Health Secretary, but someone had to make room for Sturgeon as she made room for Salmond, Robison has to content herself with the #2 post for now. Stewart Maxwell, he of the smoking ban, will join the department as Minister for Communities and Sport. This will tread on the toes of Tricia Marwick and Christine Grahame (previously spokespeople for Housing and Social Justice respectively), but such is life. Could Committee Convenerships be in the offing for them?

John Swinney takes over as Cabinet Secretary for Finance & Sustainable Growth. Jim Mather will be Minister for Enterprise, Energy and Tourism. Either Mather or Swinney would have made a good #1 here, so Mather is unlucky to lose out. Also in the Department will be Stewart Stevenson, the new Minister for Transport, Infrastructure & Climate Change. Does that mean he has to implement Climate Change? In any case, it's a fortunate position to be in for a man who was the Shadow Deputy Minister for Justice before the Election.

Fiona Hyslop is now Cabinet Secretary for Education, & Lifelong Learning. She can thank her lucky stars for this: it was previously thought that she would be the one to make way for Nicola Sturgeon, but Fate and Alex Salmond have clearly smiled on her. Maureen Watt will be the new Minister for Schools and Skills (she can also feel lucky, she's only been in the Parliament for just over a year), and completing the line-up will be Adam Ingram, now the Minister for Children & Early Years.

Kenny MacAskill is now Cabinet Secretary for Justice (no surprise there) and Fergus Ewing is now his Minister for Community Safety, and is lucky to get even that given the Greens' intense dislike of him.

Richard Lochhead is now Cabinet Secretary for Rural Affairs & the Environment, and his #2 is Mike Russell.

The Cabinet is missing the aforementioned Grahame and Marwick, and Michael Matheson who resigned from the Frontbench in March. Sandra White, Brian Adam and Rob Gibson are all backbenchers having been Deputy Spokespeople (this was probably a consolation prize though), and there is no mention of Roseanna Cunningham or Alex Neil, who are probably likely to reprise their role on Committees.

A Day of Firsts

It has happened: by 49 votes to 46, with 33 abstentions, Alex Salmond has been nominated by Holyrood to serve as Scotland's fourth First Minister.

Salmond is the first SNP First Minister - this we know.

Salmond is also the first First Minister to represent the North East: he is the MSP for Gordon; Donald Dewar was the MSP for Glasgow Anniesland, Henry McLeish was the MSP for Central Fife and Jack McConnell continues to be the MSP for Motherwell & Wishaw.

Jack McConnell was the first sitting First Minister to seek re-election in 2003, and is now the First Minister to fail to secure it.

This is the first time that a Liberal Democrat has stood for First Minister.

This is also the first time that a woman has been nominated for the post as a Party Leader. However, Annabel Goldie is not the first woman to be nominated for the post: that honour goes to Margo MacDonald in 2003. Margo got two votes: from Dennis Canavan and John Swinburne. She herself voted for Dennis Canavan.

This is the first time that only the major parties and all the major parties have nominated a candidate.

Also, this is the first time that a second round of voting was required.

And tomorrow will be the first time that SNP MSPs have been nominated to serve in a Cabinet.

That's the last time I quote from a Eurovision song in a post - two people reached my blog after Googling "something to suck before landing". They were using Polish Google, as well...

Deputy Presiding Officer - Liveblog

Four MSPs are in for the posts: Trish Godman is up for re-election; Alasdair Morgan (as tipped last week) is in there; as are Margaret Smith and Jamie Stone. This is the first time that two candidates from the same Party have gone head-to-head. In 1999, the SNP's George Reid and Labour's Patricia Ferguson beat the Tories' John Young. In 2001, Conservative Murray Tosh beat Labour's Cathy Peattie, while in 2003, Murray Tosh won re-election and Trish Godman was elected, the pair of them defeating Robin Harper of the Greens.

The results from the first round of voting for the First DPO are as follows:

Alasdair Morgan 55
Trish Godman 47
Margaret Smith 12
Jamie Stone 8

So Jamie Stone is eliminated until the election for the Second DPO. [15.05.07 - Turns out there were four spoiled ballot papers: some Members had decided to vote for more than one candidate, have they learned nothing?]

UPDATE: Margaret Smith has now been eliminated. I would give you the numbers but the webcast decided to break down at the key moment. [15.05.07: A check of the Official Report puts the vote at Morgan 61, Godman 49, Smith 16]

UPDATE II: Alasdair Morgan has been elected First DPO, by 77 votes to 49 for Godman. Smith and Stone re-join Godman on the ballot paper for Second DPO.

UPDATE III: Trish Godman has been re-elected with 69 votes - a majority - to Margaret Smith's 48 and Jamie Stone's eight. I wonder who Jamie Stone's seven friends are?

Things are moving...

We have our Presiding Officer, and yes, it's Alex Fergusson, who has, in fact, suspended his Party affiliation, albeit reluctantly.

He beat Margo MacDonald by a thumping 108 votes to 20.

Now let's see who his deputies are...

The Strange Case of the Conservatives

The Conservatives had an odd election: on the one hand, I predicted that they would lose seats, and they return to Holyrood with 17 MSPs compared with 18 in 2003. On the other hand, I predicted that they'd have hardly any influence, and instead they're needed. So needed, in fact, that the other parties practically had to beg the Tories to provide a Presiding Officer.

And so here we are: The SNP have 47 MSPs, plus the two Greens. Labour have 46. Annabel Goldie's actions, and those of her colleagues will make the difference between a First Minister being elected and a First Minister not being elected. They could also make the difference between who is elected.

In many ways, this is the worst possible result for the Tories. A total collapse would have forced a complete re-think of what the Party is for, and how it works. An advance would have vindicated Annabel Goldie completely, provided a morale boost for members, and given them extra momentum. Now, they have that in the South: their seat tally remained the same, but John Lamont did manage to pull off a constituency win in Roxburgh & Berwickshire, and Alex Fergusson surprised most commentators by holding on in Galloway & Upper Nithsdale. However, Murray Tosh failed to win Dumfries (something Derek Brownlee is probably relieved about), and the Party is one MSP short in the North East. Meanwhile, Goldie failed to gain the credibility that McLetchie gained in 2003 by winning a Constituency, and a harsh critic of her leadership, Jackson Carlaw, has been elected on the same Regional List as Bella.

Now, they have had a net loss, but have other signs they can point to to imagine a recovery that isn't necessarily there. The Party might be advancing in Constituencies in the South, but the advance isn't really happening elsewhere. Eastwood saw a hug swing to them, but not huge enough, and in Stirling, once home of Michael Forsyth, the SNP won the seat. The SNP!

Aberdeen South (a seat the Tories gained in 1992) is a LibDem/SNP marginal.The Tories are the only Party in the Big 4 not to have a shout in Edinburgh Central (Tory until 1987 [note - actually only 1983-87]). McLetchie has made Pentlands his own, but the Party have sunk back to 4th again in Edinburgh South (once Michael Ancram's seat at Westminster), though Gavin Brown's election as a Regional MSP might change things. They fell to 3rd place in Edinburgh West, a Tory stronghold until 1997. North East Fife has been LibDem and looks like remaining so for the foreseeable future. Banff & Buchan has been SNP for 20 years since Alex Salmond won it in 1987. The Tories are third in West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine, the successor to one-time Tory seat Kincardine and Deeside. Moray is now an SNP fortress, as are Angus and North Tayside. Argyll & Bute (Tory for a time) has been gained by the SNP from the LibDems; Jamie McGrigor came a distant third. Cunninghame North, once Tory, was won from Labour... by the SNP. They came fourth in Strathkelvin & Bearsden, once the seat of Michael Hirst. They didn't manage to unseat Roseanna Cunningham in Perth, their most obvious gain. So while progress of a sort is happening in the South, it's not happening elsewhere. The old strongholds seem as out of reach as they seemed after the 1997 Election.

And yet, the Tories will blame circumstances for the minor loss this time: they'll say they were squeezed by the Labour-SNP contest. That isn't good enough: the Party hasn't recovered. At least, not yet. And if they don't put in a good showing at the next Westminster Election, they will need to re-consider what they're for. In many ways, that could be the best thing.

We're getting somewhere!

Enfin! Holyrood looks like it's close to having a Presiding Officer, in the shape of Alex Fergusson, Conservative MSP for Galloway and Upper Nithsdale. Controversially, he might still take the Conservative whip, something neither George Reid nor David Steel did. Steel did, however, take the LibDem whip in the House of Lords. That impasse looks broken, however.

Next, Coalition. The SNP and Greens have a 'co-operation agreement'. The two agree on opposition to new nuclear power stations (they did anyway), support for independence and a referendum (they did anyway), and early legislation to deal with climate change (incidentally, I've always wondered how you actually do this - you can halt the man-made causes of climate change but you can't halt the change itself, so this is basically like making death illegal).

In practical terms, the Greens agree to vote for Alex Salmond as First Minister, and for his ministerial team (which, assuming he comes through on Wednesday, will be smaller than under the previous Executive). In return, they get one of the SNP's Committee Convenerships, and will be consulted on the Legislative Programme, Budget, and big policy announcements. The SNP also agree to be nice to the Greens, or rather, "to give sympathetic consideration to issues raised by the Green Party in Parliament, including via Motions and Members Bills."

It's a very loose model, far looser even than the Confidence & Supply proposals initially floated last year, and neither side has really played a blinder here: the SNP do not have guaranteed Green support for Budgets and Confidence motions; the Greens don't get all that many policies that weren't on the cards anyway. The SNP do have two extra votes for their Ministers, though (always useful), and the Greens get a bit of extra prominence via a Convenership. The major positive, however, is that this could be a template for a new arrangement with the LibDems, or even the Tories: the key to the agreement's success is its looseness.

But are the LibDems truly up for doing a deal? Rumours abound (via Richard Thomson) that a strop by Tavish Scott and Mike Rumbles could be the real cause of the LibDems' rejection of SNP advances, and that a power struggle is now on in the Party, and it looks like Nicol Stephen lost it: he is reported to have wanted to enter a Coalition, while Tavish Scott was the LibDems' Ian Paisley. Or rather, the LibDems' Ian Paisley of the 1970s.

Speaking of power stuggles, the knifes are starting to point at Jack McConnell's back. Successors are now being openly discussed, with Wendy Alexander, Margaret Curran's Hands and Andy Kerr all being mentioned. Even John Reid is being supported!

A Personal Statement

Hello everybody,

As readers of TerryWatch may know, Terry has said some rather nasty things about me and my well-known sexual orientation, and it's fair to say that I've taken them rather badly. So badly that rather than use the normal means of Terry's Comment section, I've gone straight to the man himself for clarification. He hasn't had time to answer me, but he has had time to post another set of rants. Anyway Jim Lewis has entered the debate.

Basically, Clairwil's picked up on the current situation, I have little to add and I'm trying to keep my distance, but I would like to state the following regarding Jim Lewis's comment:

At no time have I ever consorted with Brian Souter. If I had, I would have sold my story to a tabloid a long time ago!

One week since polling

Two conflicting rumours are now coming to the fore over the Presiding Officer post. The first is that it's Margo to the rescue, and the Independent will take up the job for about a year to allow the parties to sort themselves out. The second is that David McLetchie has been appointed to the Parliamentary Bureau in place of Bill Aitken so that Aitken is free to stand for Presiding Officer.

While I'm on the subject of the Bureau, what of Alasdair Morgan? He's the SNP representative on the Bureau temporarily, but The Herald reports that Bruce Crawford is likely to be the SNP's Minister for Parliament (I was expecting Crawford to be appointed to the Bureau rather than Morgan). I think he's being moved to another Parliamentary post, a key Convenership, the Corporate Body, or (and this is my favourite) Deputy Presiding Officer. We shall see.

In any case, focus today has shifted southwards, with Blair about to announce his departure in at 12 o'clock today, and while Holyrood can't agree a Coalition, a number of Councils have done.

We know already that Labour control Glasgow and North Lanarkshire. We know that Independents control the three Island Councils. Argyll & Bute will be run by a Coalition of Independents and the SNP, with 26 out of 36 seats. The SNP and LibDems have agreed a Coalition in East Lothian, with a combined 13 seats out of 23, and Moray will be run by a Coalition of Independents and Conservatives, with 15 seats out of 26.

The LibDems

Readers might by now have noticed that I'm making my way through the parties. Having tackled the Left, the Independents and the Greens, I'm now on to the Big 4. The problem is, my thoughts are still pretty much half-formed, especially on the Liberal Democrats, today's instalments.

Mainly because I'm still red faced about saying this in January: "the LibDems won't go backwards and the most likely negative outcome will be 17 MSPs." Now, in my defence, I also predicted that Dundee United would beat Falkirk that day, and that prediction went disastrously wrong as well, so this should have been taken with a pinch of salt, but I was far from the only person who believed this (About the LibDems, I mean, not Dundee United), and it was only once opinion polls started showing them with a possible loss in early April that I started to wonder.

And so, a lot of people, particularly the LibDems, find themselves in an unexpected situation: a smaller LibDem group than before the Election. This has hit the Party hard, so it's no surprise that they're taking a step back from Coalition politics. They need time to think about what happened, why it happened, and how they react. There's little they can do about Menzies Campbell's leadership of the Federal party, but could Nicol Stephen be this election's John Swinney: leading a Party that should have been in a position to make gains only to go backwards? And even if he were not under the microscope, doesn't the fact that he personally suffered an 11.2% swing to the SNP in his own constituency, with a majority slashed to just 2,732 make his position far weaker? The LibDems are in a less secure position than they were a month ago, they need to reflect on that and they can't do that, undertake Coalition negotiations and be part of an Executive at the same time.

But this creates further problems: they are confirmed in fourth place. They were a Party in government, with Liberal Democrat ministers on the news. They are now just another Opposition Party, eclipsed by Labour (assuming that Alex Salmond gets the FM post) and even the Tories. Nicol Stephen would (probably) get the third spot at FMQs, which did absolutely nothing for the Greens, SSP and Independents. And in any case, just as the Election watchers did, the FMQ watchers will focus on the battle between Alex Salmond and the Labour Party Leader (note that I have not said Jack McConnell). Where the Greens and even the Tories lost seats but gained influence, the LibDems have lost a seat, and some big hitters too, AND lost influence. They are out of government, and in a weakened part of Opposition. Meanwhile, they used to be the first and only Party that the larger beasts looked to for support. They're still needed, but they have to share the limelight with either the Tories (in the case of support for Labour policies) or the Greens (to support the SNP).

But that's only the first problem. The second is the nature of their new-found isolationism. It seems, well, sniffy. They've said that they won't enter a Coalition with Labour, full stop. They also refuse to talk to the SNP as long as the independence referendum is on the table. The SNP have since shown flexibility, by proposing alternatives, but the LibDems still won't even meet. Now, given their internal issues that are now a factor, you can sympathise with that, but they keep blaming their refusal on the pro-independence stance of the SNP and the Greens, a stance which both of the other two are expressing a willingness to work around. It appears that they've taken their ball home, and that can't be good for the Party's image.

They could turn things around tomorrow by saying, "We've been part of a Coalition for eight years; for the Party's sake and for Scotland's sake, it's time for a new way of conducting relations with other parties. We feel that minority government would stimulate debate and make politics more interesting, it would also leave us free to support an Executive wholeheartedly when we agree with it, and oppose it when we do not." Or something like that. Something positive rather than "We won't even talk to X because of Y." By persisting in the negative approach, they're harming themselves.

If they persist with this sulk, they'll lose even more influence. If they lose influence, they'll lose prominence in the Parliament. If they lose prominence, they'll lose publicity. And if they lose publicity, they will certainly lose votes.

Yes, it's really Wednesday

And we don't have a Presiding Officer. George Reid is coming back to sort things out on Monday. Lucky him. The MSPs have been sworn in though.

We do know who's on the Parliamentary Bureau, at least for now, even if it doesn't have anyone to chair it. SNP Chief Whip Alasdair Morgan will represent the SNP; Labour's Deputy Leader and incumbent Minister for Justice Cathy Jamieson will have a seat, rather than the incumbent Minister for Parliament, Margaret Curran's Hands. The Tories will be represented by former Leader David McLetchie, while LibDem Deputy Leader and incumbent Transport Minister Tavish Scott will complete the line-up, chiefly as the LibDems' current representative, George Lyon, was defeated in Argyll & Bute by Jim Mather. It also looks as though Morgan and Scott's appointments are temporary. Jamieson's appointment is probably temporary as well: it gives a hint that McConnell is re-shuffling his front-bench team, but we don't know at this stage how long he'll stay as Labour leader. If and when (and at this stage it's still a matter of if) Alex Salmond is elected First Minister, then McConnell can expect to find 45 knives plunged into his back.

As things stand

Still no PO candidate, and it looks as though the MSPs will be sworn in tomorrow, but the sitting will be suspended until next week, when, hopefully, a replacement for George Reid will be chosen.

Rumours abound that Margo MacDonald will come in as a 'holding' PO. for a year. No one's really sure what to make of this, but Labour don't want to do it, and want the new Presiding Officer to come from one of the smaller parties. The Tories seem to be lining up to reject the job, claiming that it's Labour's turn.

Oh, and the Greens asked the LibDems if they'd like to join the Coalition. The LibDems have said no.

What of the Greens?

The aftermath of this election has uncovered one of the quirks of PR. The Greens had seven seats in the last Parliament, but with the formation of a stable, majority Executive, their influence only really came to the fore when they helped the Executive avoid embarrassment by voting down an opposition motion to abolish tolls on the Forth and Tay Bridges.

So, you would think that with just two MSPs, their influence would diminish, but in fact the reverse is true: those two MSPs could have provided a majority Coalition (if the LibDems were up for it), and even without a majority Coalition, some form of agreement with the SNP looks likely, whether it's a formal Coalition with a Green entering the Executive or just a Confidence & Supply agreement as they've been envisaging for over a year. And with whatever Executive is formed needing to get votes from wherever they can, every member counts. That includes Harper and Harvie, who sound more like a firm of solicitors than a Parliamentary group, but there you go. That means the Greens are important to the process.

And is the result a total disaster? Well, for party morale, particularly outwith Glasgow and Edinburgh, yes. Patrick Harvie only got in because of the SSP/Solidarity fracture, Robin Harper was one of two Greens from the Lothians prior to dissolution, and six regions are now without Green MSPs, compared with two in the second Parliament.

But in Glasgow and Edinburgh, it's a different story: Harvie did gain the most extraordinary piece of luck (which has got to cheer supporters), and there are now Green Councillors in Scotland: five in Glasgow, three in Edinburgh. Not only that, but the party's candidate in Glasgow Kelvin put in an impressive performance, coming third.

Nevertheless, the Greens have a lot of thinking to do: the MSPs have to decide what relationship (if any) they are going to pursue with the SNP. And the Party at large has to reflect on the election result: simply blaming circumstances and complaining how the Labour-SNP battle squeezed them doesn't cut it. Nor does blaming the spoiled papers. In 2003, the Greens were largely overlooked and the SSP were heralded as the upward force in Scottish politics, thanks in chief to the charismatic Tommy Sheridan railing against the War in Iraq. The Greens overcame that to overtake the SSP. This time, they did not make a sufficient impact to maintain their vote, or break into the debate. While the media focussed on the struggle at the top, the Greens simply sat there, convinced of progress but not really showing where it was going to come from or what it would mean.

Not only that, but their policies aren't exactly designed to appeal to the masses. Everyone wants something to be done about climate change, but they don't want to have to work/pay/change for it. So when the Greens talk about the climate, and the environment, people listen. Then the Greens carry on, and they call for a halt to the building of the M74 extension, or the new Aberdeen bypass, and people are horrified. They promote road tolls, and drivers go 'Aaaargh!'. They argue against cheap flights, and people run screaming from the room, forgetting in their panic that they've left the TV and all the lights on. The problem is, it's not clear what (if anything) the Greens can do to solve that. They are going to sound like spoilsports, and it'll take a major crisis - like the icecap melting and flooding Leith before people agree that sacrifices have to be made by everyone including themselves.

But it has to be the messengers as well as the message. Otherwise, they wouldn't have just lost five MSPs, as they wouldn't have had them to lose. Clearly Robin Harper had been a good torchbearer for the Party in the first Parliament, but were the others a turn-off? We can't really know for sure, but the beating can't just be because they don't like cars and cheap flights. In any case, the Party's future electoral prospects depend on what Robin Harper and Patrick Harvie do now. Perform well, and they will be rejoined by others. Perform badly, and they're both toast.

As things stand

The LibDems have seemingly ruled themselves out of Coalition talks with anyone at this time. Tavish Scott dismissed a third Coalition with Labour out of hand on television yesterday (a few minutes after John Reid announced that Gordon Brown wouldn't have the pleasure of sacking him - OK, he didn't put it like that, but the subtext was clear), and a phone conversation between Alex Salmond and Nicol Stephen ended when the referendum was raised. Salmond cannot drop the idea altogether, even if it is the barrier to Coalition government, so he has to pursue it in some form. Stephen cannot go all the way to an independence referendum as the SNP envisage it, so he has to find another way forward. That way has not been found, and unless Alex Salmond can pull something out of the bag (it's down to him now), there will be no majority Coalition.

The SNP, are, however, in talks with the two Greens, and reports suggest that there is an agreement in principle. That puts the SNP-Green alliance on 49 seats, to Labour's 46. If they do form an alliance with the Tories - which the Tories ruled out before the poll, but that was before the result - they would have 63 seats. The Tories' next manoeuvre is crucial.

The Parliament, as we know, has to elect a First Minister before the end of the month. Otherwise, we have to start all over again. Now, this might not necessarily be a bad thing - the voters might actually get it right this time - but it comes with pros and cons for all the parties. The SNP could consolidate their first place, or lose it. Labour could regain first place, or sink lower. The Tories could maintain influence or be overtaken by the LibDems. The LibDems themselves could erase the embarrassment of the results (actually losing a seat when most people could only see them gaining) or suffer even more reverses (Christine Grahame is still in a position to win Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale, for example), and the Greens could restore some of their fallen colleagues or lose their remaining members.

However, before an FM is elected, a Presiding Officer has to be chosen. I've floated Ted Brocklebank's name, and commenters suggest Bill Aitken might be the one. Margo's name is mentioned and contrary to my initial belief, she's actually interested in it. Whether or not she'd do it well, however, is another matter altogether.

Meanwhile, rumours abound of challenges to the election result being prepared by Allan Wilson (he alleges dodgy practices in the votes from Arran, which were lucky even to make it across the Clyde), and that a lot of people voted for Labour but not for him. This must obviously mean that the whole poll was flawed, and it should be run and re-run until Wilson wins, of course!

There's another possible challenge from a lawyer from Glasgow, whose main beef appears to be that an election should be declared invalid if a certain number of people find themselves unable to read instructions before their pencil goes near a ballot paper. Frankly, it wouldn't be invalid if they couldn't find their way to the polling place, so why should it be invalid now?

The state of Independents

May 3 was a bad night for Independents everywhere: Margo MacDonald survives as Lothian MSP, and now has unprecedented leverage, but the others fall. Dennis Canavan was retiring anyway, but the others had trouble.

Jean Turner sank to third place in Strathkelvin and Bearsden. Labour were always going to fight hard to win this back, and it looks as though she, like many others,was a victim of the polarised contest between Labour and the SNP. It seems like many of her suporters appears to switch to the SNP this time - had they been disenchanted SNP supporters in 2003, I wonder? And what will happen to her 6,742 supporters? Where wil they go?

Campbell Martin took a respectable 4,423 votes in Cunninghame North, but the SNP only won the seat by 48 votes. Considering his attack on Allan Wilson as a New Labour MSP who needed to be unseated, Martin's candidacy almost prevented that from happening. Had he done so, especially with the national result, the consequences would have been disastrous: the result would never have been forgiven or forgotten, and Martin would have been viewed as a traitor. He can feel some relief now.

John Swinburne's SSCUP also took a beating, but they polled respectably across Scotland. It remains to be seen what happens to them now.

Finally, a word about fellow blogger Julie McAnulty . She kept her deposit, and polled 7% despite the presence of NHSFirst in her constituency (she gubbed them, by the way), and came in ahead of the LibDem candidate. A good effort, and the best of luck to her.

Just when you thought it couldn't get any more interesting...

The BBC this afternoon:

The Liberal Democrats have ruled out a coalition deal with Labour in the Scottish Parliament.

The Lib Dems' Tavish Scott told BBC Scotland that if his party was not able to share power with the SNP, it would be on the backbenches.

The BBC this evening:

Liberal Democrats have tonight turned down the prospect of a coalition deal with the SNP to form the next government of Scotland.

Scottish Lib Dem leader Nicol Stephen said that the fundamental stumbling block was the nationalists' demand for a referendum on independence.

Mr Stephen forecast that there would now be an SNP minority government at Holyrood following Thursday's election.

Are both of these stories true? Could the LibDems be ready to walk out of government, and gamble on being required on an issue-by-issue basis? Can Scotland cope with minority government? Can anyone reach the 65 votes needed for the First Minister position, or are we headed for a rerun? Are we headed for a rerun of the poll in Cunninghame North and in Glasgow anyway?

Is only one true, and if so, which one?

Or is it possible for neither of them to be true? Are the LibDems playing hardball to extract the maximum concessions?

These questions, and many others, will be answered in the next episode of Soap.

Confused? You will be...

The Left in Scotland

Thw writing was on the wall for the demise of the Left in Scotland: even without the split, opinion polls had the combined SSP & Solidarity showing at around 5% - the sort of level which wold cause a near-wipeout, save for the unified SSP's stronghold in Glasgow. So it proved. The only place where either party had even a sniff at a seat was Glasgow, where Solidarity missed out by a whisker. To make matters worse, the combined vote of the SSP and Solidarity would have been enough for one of them to win a seat at the expense of Patrick Harvie. This goes to prove how damaging the split was: both sides have almost destroyed themselves in fighting with each other, and the electorate's view has been very clear: "A plague on both your houses!". But the Left will re-emerge, in some form.

Solidarity are the likeliest to survive and re-build, as long as Tommy Sheridan is still involved, but will that mean anything by 2011? My guess is that it will: the Party has a Councillor in Glasgow (Ruth Black), so still has a platform to advance Tommy, who took 19.3% of the vote in Pollok in the 1992 Westminster Election, 7.6% across the city in the 1994 European Election, 11.1% in the re-drawn Pollok in 1997, 21.5% in Pollok in 1999 (with the SSP taking 7% across the city on the Regional Vote), and 27.9% in Pollok in 2003 (with the SSP taking 16% across the city on the Regional Vote). So the 4.1% support for Solidarity in Glasgow is the worst level of support that a Tommy Sheridan candidacy has received, well, ever. Even combined with the SSP, he'd only have scored 5.3%. Basically, Glasgow doesn't necessarily like Tommy, but people at least know who he is. So the personality, combined with the chance to develop the Party's organisation over the next four years, and the presence in the City all mean that we haven't seen the last of him.

Socialist Labour are now the second leftist force in Scottish politics. They don't have (and have never had) the electoral success of the unified SSP, or the presence in any Council chamber. They haven't ever had representation in Holyrood either. Their main asset comes from their UK head: Arthur Scargill. As long as he's still going, they're still going. Not necessarily successful, but still going. They might never be successful, but they'll be hard to shift. Until Scargill snuffs it, when they're screwed.

The SSP, on the other hand, are toast. They are now the third force in Socialism, rather than the largest, with major debts, few backers, and no MSPs contributing from their salary. The have one Councillor in West Dunbartonshire (Jim Bollan), but that's it. The only place where the even managed to get 1% of the vote was Glasgow, the Party's original birthplace, and even there they were outpolled by Socialist Labour. And both Christian parties. And the Senior Citizens' Unity Party. And the BNP. They're in real trouble.

A few thoughts on the Presiding Officer

Or rather, who it might be. I can't think of any SNP MSP (at least from those re-elected) who would be ready for this job, and even if I could, they wouldn't take it because 1) every SNP MSP is needed, and 2) George Reid started out as SNP, so it's another party's turn.

A former SNP MSP, Margo MacDonald, is being mentioned as a possibility, and she would strike the fear of God into the hearts of unruly members. Certainly she terrifies me, but I would say that: in 2001, she pinned me to the bar in Edinburgh University's Teviot Row House after I spoke against her in a public debate (she was eventually quite affable, but the initial encounter, in which she swept towards me and gave me one of the sternest lectures I've ever had, left me scarred). But would she want to do it? No, of course not. The Presiding Officer's job requires a dignified silence on political issues. Margo doesn't do dignified silence on anything.

Labour won't put anyone forward either. They need their members in place, and even if they didn't, I don't see any positive candidates. Trish Godman has been a Deputy Presiding Officer for four years, but Presiding Officers tend to have an X-factor, a gravitas that Godman doesn't have. She's better at keeping things calm and measured, she's effective, but quiet, so she's out. George Foulkes has a bit of clout but he's only been in the Parliament since Friday afternoon and he's far too partisan: he would never be acceptable to the SNP. Or anyone other than Labour.

The LibDems are too busy licking their wounds and every one of their 16 MSPs will be needed in a governing coalition involving the SNP. In any case, again, who would they choose? Robin Harper's name was floated a while ago, but like the LibDems, he is needed in a Coalition now.

This brings us to the Tories. Annabel Goldie's name was mentioned, but she has reportedly said no. No name immediately springs to mind, but this is the only group who could supply a PO: the SNP and Labour both need all of their MSPs at this time; Margo isn't an option; the LibDems have been knocked back, as have the Greens, and both parties need their full strength for what is looking like the most likely Coalition right now: an SNP-LibDem-Green government. So it has to be a Tory.

But which one? I've been reflecting on this, and Ted Brocklebank might be a strong choice. He's got some gravitas, and he'd probably handle the job with charm and dignity. Plus which, he might be looking to bow out by 2011. Nanette Milne would also be a possibility, but I think Brocklebank would probably have a greater impact. We shall see.

For what it's worth

Barring any last-minute shocks, this will be my last post before the results come in. I will be spending Thursday night with one eye on BBC Scotland, and another on my keyboard, typing in a frenzy. So, I thought I'd take this last opportunity to share my opinion.

Regular readers will know what side my political bread is buttered on, so this won't come as a total surprise to them, but here it is anyway: I believe the best outcome of the elections and the Coalition negotiations that follow is an SNP-LibDem Executive, led by Alex Salmond, deputised by Nicol Stephen.

What will the present Scottish Executive be remembered for? I'm genuinely asking, because I have no idea. Free personal care for the elderly would be a possibility, but the delivery of that has been a disaster. Following the death of Donald Dewar, and the fiasco that was the Henry McLeish administration, the McConnell Executive has been one of anonymity, afraid to be radical, afraid to think for itself, afraid to step out of the shadow of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. What a shadow! Cash-for-honours, the Millennium Dome, the London Olympics, a continual erosion of civil liberties, and of course, the War in Iraq. At least, unlike McConnell, Blair will be remembered for something.

Further, this Scottish Executive has failed to advance any positive case for the Union or a continuation of their government. Their slogan may as well be, 'Vote for us, because we don't like Alex Salmond.' Contrast this with the SNP, who have advanced the cause of independence (which I support), proposed stronger local democracy and greater accountability in the NHS, and supported greater rights for patients and a phasing-out of prescription charges (which Labour in Wales have had the guts to do), offered a radical change in student finance. On all of these things, Labour stand for an unsatisfactory status quo. The SNP have advocated extending the largesse the Executive showed towards road bridge users on the West Coast to bridge users on the East Coast, a move Labour resisted until the start of the election campaign. The SNP has stated categorically its stance on nuclear energy and nuclear weapons. On this issue, McConnell has waited until the last possible moment, and then meekly fallen into line with the Westminster Government, even when Scottish Labour MPs were themselves unwilling to do that. The SNP want to radically change local taxation, while Labour want to tinker around the edges. Alex Salmond has recognised the need to work with a Gordon Brown Premiership. Gordon Brown has said he will take the huff with the Scottish Executive if the Scottish electorate have the cheek to vote for the SNP.

In short, Labour offer nothing but the status quo and tribalism. The SNP offer progress and leadership. As for the Liberal Democrats? I take the piss out of them, their campaigning methods can be nothing short of exasperating, and they do have to take some share of culpabilitiy for the things that have gone wrong over the past eight years - they were a part of that - but in the main, they have just got on with things and done a reasonable job. Plus which, on most issues, the LibDems and SNP can do business with each other. The main sticking point is independence. If that can be overcome, an SNP-LibDem Executive can work well together, and that is why I encourage voters to cast whatever votes are necessary to achieve that: I suggest that you support the SNP on the Regional Vote and use your best judgment on the Constituency Vote.

Now to the Councils. The state of Local Government is best summed up by looking at our good friends the Kellys, Terry and his daughter Rayleen, both a part of the Labour junta in Renfrewshire. Think of the contempt he shows anyone who challenges his narrow view of the world. Think of Dennis Goldie in Falkirk, calling other councillors Nazis. Think of how Labour has turned its guns on itself in West Dunbartonshire. Think of how Labour incompetence led to the party losing control of South Ayrshire Council to the Conservatives. Think of the Leader of North Lanarkshire Council completely ignoring the smoking ban. Labour have had a lock on power in local government, a power that they have abused and taken for granted. Thanks to the new voting system, you the voters have the best opportunity you will ever have to remind them who is really in charge: you. I want the radical, positive change that I want for the Scottish Executive to spread to local councils, so I ask for a #1 vote for an SNP candidate, and where there are several candidates, your next preferences to stay with the SNP. What you do with your following preferences is totally up to you, but when you consider Labour's approach to local government, it is clear that they do not deserve any number, any preference. Leave the Labour candidates' boxes empty.

That said, the most important advice I can give you is this: vote. You have 15 hours, between 7am and 10pm, to get down to your polling place, so many of you will have the time at some stage. You have a wide range of parties to choose from, with differing views for how Scotland should be governed, so don't say they're all the same. How Scotland will look in 2011, when we do this again, will depend on the outcome of these elections. If you have any opinion on what should happen to the country in the next four years (and if you're reading this, I suspect you do), vote. You will not get as good a chance to influence the process until 2011.

Pedantic? Moi?

It has come to my attention that the more disreputable members of the mainstream media are describing today as the tenth anniversary of the Blair Premiership. This is, in fact not the case. Although the Election was on Thursday 1 May, the result that gave Blair his majority, the 330th Labour seat, did not come until the early hours of Friday morning, and Buckingham Palace sent for the Labour Leader later that day.

If today does represent a political tenth anniversary, it is ten years since John Major's last full day in power.

That is all.