25 March 2007

MacNumpty 2011: How we got to Independence

3 May 2007 - Polling day.

4 May 2007 - Election results. The SNP are the largest Party, Labour are second and the LibDems are third. The only viable two-party coalition is between the SNP and the LibDems.

30 May 2007 - After lengthy negotiations, and with a day to spare, the SNP and LibDems agree a Coalition. The Council Tax will be abolished, no planning permission will be granted for nuclear power stations and the Graduate Endowment will be abolished. A referendum on Independence will be held, according to the question drafted by the SNP with the aid of the Scottish Executive, but Collective Responsibility will be suspended and Liberal Democrat Ministers will be free to campaign for the 'No' side.

31 May 2007 - Alex Salmond elected First Minister. Nicol Stephen will continue as Deputy First Minister.

7 May 2009 - General Election. The Conservatives make major gains in England, and anti-Labour tactical voting is rife in Scotland. Labour still come first in terms of votes, but with a major swing against them of 9%. They are damaged by anti-Labour tactical voting, and end up with 30 Scottish seats. The SNP come second in votes, thanks to a 7% swing towards the Party, but end up with ten seats, picking up Aberdeen North, Dundee West, Kilmarnock & Loudoun and Ochil & South Perthshire. The LibDem vote drops slightly, but the anti-Labour voting allows them to gain seats: they consolidate their hold on Dunfermline & West Fife, win Edinburgh North & Leith and Aberdeen South, and take the scalp of key Brownite Nigel Griffiths in Edinburgh South. The Tory vote increases by around 2%, which combined with the anti-Labour vote, gives them their highest number of Scottish MPs since 1997: four. Dumfries & Galloway, East Renfrewshire and Stirling all turn blue. Nationally, the Tories win the election but with a majority of just 20. Scottish Labour Leader Wendy Alexander is blamed for the performance. Labour Leader Wendy Alexander publicly slaps down her predecessor Jack McConnell's suggestion that the Scottish party distance itself from London. Tory Leader Murdo Fraser and Prime Minister David Cameron agree that more autonomy is what the Scottish Tories need, and following discussions taking place over the past two years, announce that the Scottish Conservatives will take the UK Tory Whip at Westminster, but that the parties will, for all intents and purposes, be separate entities.

14 June 2009 - European Election. The SNP overtakes Labour into first place. Both take two seats, along with the Conservatives. The Liberal Democrats take one. After the hard-fought General Election campaign, turnout is a pathetic 20%.

Faced with the strong SNP performances in the Elections, combined with his slimline majority, Cameron's first speech in Scotland contains lines on the need to scale back Whitehall involvement in people's lives, and, more controversially, an announcement that London will not 'keep Scotland out of self-interest'. He informs his audience that if, and only if, the people of Scotland back independence, he will have no choice but to support it.

6 May 2010 - the Referendum campaign. First Minister Alex Salmond leads the 'Yes' campaign, and in a shock move, Murdo Fraser supports him. Leader of the Opposition Wendy Alexander publicly leads the 'No' campaign. Nicol Stephen stays largely silent, but George Lyon and Tavish Scott make a handful of anti-Independence speeches. There is no intervention by UK Government Ministers, who are conspicuous in their absence. The result: 55.2% in favour of Independence. Negotiations begin, and move rapidly.

5 May 2011 - Elections to the Independent Scottish Parliament.


Grant Thoms said...

There is more truth in the scenario you have painted than most will recognise on first reading... excellent job. I do think though, that in the Euro elections, if the SNP comes top, it will win 3 seats at the expense of a Tory seat just because of the vagaries of the allocation system. Labour came within a hair breadth of winning a 3rd seat off the Tories in 2004.

Roger Thomas said...

if I'd known I would have asked Murdo, he was at Coupar Angus Horse Fair last Saturaday. Lorraine Kelly was there as well! We live one hell of a stella on the edge celebity existence in Blairgowrie.
Seriously though very good, anything can happen. The thing is with Murdo though he is Conservative, he is still a very local Perthshire person. Apart from the Horse Fair last time I saw him was in a pub in Blair. Blairgowrie. Strange place at times in one afternoon I saw Pete Wishart MP, John Swinney MSP, Mark Ruskell MSP and Murdo. All I did was go into town! Talk abot access and close contact with politicins, if you didn't look where you were going you'd trip over one