The Return of the Selection Box: Central Scotland and Glasgow

Despite the hysteria over the 100-day of the Coalition, and the excitement over Charles Kennedy doing nothing, the Scottish political parties are in the midst of selecting their candidates for next year's elections. So, inspired by Malc's post on retiring MSPs, I thought I'd take a look.

In Central Scotland, all eyes are on Motherwell & Wishaw, not because there's a vacancy (yet), but because there's pressure on Jack McConnell to stand down after taking a peerage. It should be noted that McConnell is the fifth MSP Peer: Lords Douglas-Hamilton, Foulkes, Steel and Watson all went before him and Lord Watson (despite his fall from grace) provides something of a precedent in that he too was a Constituency MSP, and successfully sought election and re-election as a Peer of the Realm. However, McConnell is the first to become an MSP while sitting in the Scottish Parliament (normally the reverse is the case), and he is the first one to consider keeping a foot in both camps after 2011. This is significant for the Kelly Review, which proposed the end of dual mandates from the date of the next devolved elections. Now, the review referred only to "Westminster MPs", which suggests that only membership of the Commons was considered, but combining a working peerage with the Scottish Parliament would be dubious in the spirit of Kelly if not the letter. He may, therefore, end up feeling pressured to stand down. We shall see.

In Glasgow, keep your eye on Glasgow Shettleston, where John Mason (of the Glasgow East By-Election) has been selected for the SNP. Now, Mason is not seeking a place on the Regional List, and does require an 11.22% swing to win the seat. Of course, that's a considerable increase on the swing he achieved in Glasgow East in the General Election in May, but it's only about half what he pulled off in the By-Election in 2008, so it's not completely beyond the realms of possibility. But of course, this will have a knock-on effect for the List, and assuming that Nicola Sturgeon takes #1 billing, then none of the sitting Regional MSPs will want to come fifth.

Meanwhile, for Labour, a pressure has been eased with Margaret Curran's transfer to Westminster: they are no longer trying to fit nine MSPs into eight notional seats, and have already selected Stephen Curran as their candidate for Glasgow Southside. Then there are the Tories, who find themselves with a vacancy at the top of their List given the retirement of Bill Aitken. Malcolm Macaskill has been chosen as his replacement for the Glasgow Anniesland candidacy, but the actual list is yet to be determined. It's still possible that Ruth Davidson might enter the fold, but I understand that the Tories' one Councillor in Glasgow, David Meikle, has been selected in Southside, so he is one to watch.

IndyGal MSP

As has been pointed out by various sources, the vacancy in Glasgow region is to be filled, by the sixth member of the SNP's List there: Anne McLaughlin, better known to bloggers as IndyGal.

And I reckon she'll do well: she's got a sound enough political brain to play a key role in the SNP's 22% swing from Labour in the Glasgow East By-Election, she's passionate, committed, infectiously enthusiastic and she's a good empathiser: that comes in handy in politics, even if it's a skill we don't see very often. But when she gets correspondence from someone in Glasgow, or when someone turns up at a surgery to see her, they're going to need her to be tuned in, hear them out, understand, and most importantly, care about them and the problem they've sought to raise. Anne will absolutely fit that bill.

But there's a knock-on effect that hasn't yet been mentioned: Anne had gone forward for ranking on the SNP's list of European candidates this year. Now, I'm reasonably confident that there's nothing theoretically stopping someone from being an MSP and an MEP (though an MP and an MEP is a different story, I believe) but it's not necessarily desirable and I don't envisage her remaining in the European selection process (UPDATE: turns out that there are no dual mandates at all: you can't be an MP and MEP, an MSP and MEP or even a Lord and MEP - so that's George Foulkes screwed - thanks to the commenter who pointed that out). If I'm correct, SNP members will now be ranking five candidates: incumbents Ian Hudghton and Alyn Smith, SNP National Secretary Duncan Ross, European affairs expert Dr. Aileen McLeod and Highland Councillor Drew Hendry. I wouldn't be overly surprised if the two present MEPs were to retain their positions on the List, but recent political trends - even the Glenrothes By-Election - point to the SNP in touching distance not only of first place, but also a third seat. That makes #3 rankng on the List important, and I had imagined that Anne would have been a strong contender for it. With her at Holyrood, it's now anyone's game...

Sad news

I am led to understand that Bashir Ahmad, SNP MSP for Glasgow and the first Muslim MSP and indeed the first MSP from any ethnic minority, has passed away. I must stress that I have no official confirmation but I trust the source, his accuracy, and the Facebook status announcing the news.

The man was a trailblazer, there's no question of that: no one from his background or faith had served at Holyrood before 2007, and now there is no sitting member who shares it, so the Parliament will indisputably be weaker in his absence.

Peace be upon him.