Three Lions, Two Nations and a Headache

Well, it's World Cup time again. Or at least, it will be on Friday. And with it being 1998 since Scotland last made it to an international tournament, and with England making every one since then with the exception of Euro 2008, we once again face that vexed question: who should Scots support? And for me personally, who am I supporting?

Now, I suspect that most of you know my background by now: born and raised in Northern England, went to study in Scotland, felt at home there, found the arguments put forward by the SNP persuasive, went back to England for work and I'm still working there now. So, being English, in England, surrounded by English people, you'd think this'd be a no-brainer for me, right?

Wrong. Because the bit I skipped in that potted history was my Dad, who's from Paisley, and my Mum, who tolerates football only becuse it's in the family's life anyway. So that's a Scotland fan and a woman who wouldn't shed a tear if football were abolished tomorrow.

Now this is important. Remember the Tebbit Test, when Norman Tebbit suggested deporting anyone of Pakistani descent living in the UK if they supported Pakistan rather than England in the cricket? Well, of course they're going to support Pakistan. In fact, it's probably easier for them to do so when you factor in that most people don't give a toss about cricket except when the Ashes are on, whereas football is absolutely everywhere. But I know why they would because what I do is the broad equivalent: the house is physically in England, but behind the front door, it's a different story. The family got the Daily Record. We'd just about get a Radio Scotland signal. Then when BBC Scotland and STV came on Sky, that was an absolute boon. Generally, though, in my family, we usually know and care more about what's happening in Scotland than a couple of miles down the road. So I grew up supporting Scotland.

And that means that supporting England is a decision I have to take rather than an automatic reaction.

Here's another factor that I consider: it's easier for me to support England in this World Cup than at any other time in my life because of the people I'll be sharing it with. Where I'm from, and where I'm back living now, is just far enough away from Manchester to get the first Man U fans. There are a lot of Wigan fans (and I count myself among them), some Bolton fans, a few Preston North End fans (and PNE fans be warned: if Trevor Hemmings gets his hands on your club, Deepdale will be a housing development by Christmas), a couple of City fans and the odd Everton and Liverpool fan. There's also a family of Arsenal fans. They have no connection at all with London, so we're still trying to figure that one out. But they're all partisan to a fault, to the extent that if Man U are on at the local pub, it'll be full at kick-off, but if Man U aren't ahead by half-time, the place will have cleared. And apparently, Sir Alex Ferguson is incompetent. Well, he is if you listen to my neighbours. They don't look at the wider game. They don't see the other team on the pitch. They're the exact people the tabloids manage to whip up into a frenzy and who go around looking for a scapegoat when it inevitably goes wrong. They're the ones who blame Ronaldo for getting Wayne Rooney sent off after he attempted to perform a vasectomy on a Portuguese player using his football boots. And let me tell you, they didn't take kindly when I pointed out that attempting to kick someone's bollocks off would meet any reasonable definition of violent conduct and that as such, the one player on the pitch who got Wayne Rooney sent off was - get this - Wayne Rooney. But they're the stereotype: the ones who swallow the tabloid view that a scrappy 1-0 win against Algeria with Algeria having a goal disallowed for reasons known only to the Assistant Referee is the stepping stone that was needed, and the trophy surely beckons! Under those circumstances, it's hard not to wish for the penalties to come and end the madness around me.

But this time is different, in that I'm work alongside a group of guys who actually enjoy football for football's sake, and they're more realistic. They'll cheer on England with the best of them, they want England to win the title but they're not ignorant of the other 31 teams in the tournament: they see the bigger picture. Hell, it was one of them who suggested to me that the USA might be a decent bet to win Group C (and having secured odds of 4.8/1 at Betfair, it's hard to disagree)! They're England fans, but they're football fans as well, so it'll be hard not to enjoy the games with them, and if we do end up going to watch a game in a group, it'll be hard not to get caught up in the atmosphere and cheer with them.

But the truth is, I'll support the players I have in my fantasy football team and the countries I have money on. So I'll be cheering every goal scored by Peter Crouch against Slovenia and Algeria, but not against the USA as I have Carlos Bocanegra in my squad as well. So I'll be cheering for Uruguay, who I wagered would top Group A (Forlan's in my squad too), the USA (sorry guys, there's money on it), and Germany and Brazil, who I've taken to meet in the Final at 20/1. I might not have an emotional interest in any of the teams, but I do have a financial interest in some of them and that now comes to the fore.

So, having basically confirmed that I'm a cold-hearted greedy bastard, here's my two cents on the whole should-Scotland-support-England question.

And my answer is this: who cares?

I remember when the UK press latched onto this debate in 2006 - not helped by Jack McConnell announcing his support for Ecuador in a triumph for relations within the Union - and there was a point that baffled me at the time: England has fifty million people, one of the most famous football leagues in the world, a decent club honours list at European level, and of course, the 1966 World Cup. Scotland has just five million people, an SPL that is seen as a basket case by most observers, an ever-decreasing UEFA co-efficient and a national team that hasn't reached an international tournament since 1998 and whose sole international honour is the 2006 Kirin Cup. So why was England so worried about what its neighbours think? Of course, this time, they don't seem to mind either way, but we'll see if that changes as the tournament progresses. But frankly, if I were an England fan, I'd lose no sleep whatever over what Scotland fans thought.

As to Scotland, it's embarrassing that this has become a political issue. I tire of fellow Nationalists discussing this seriously. After all, the whole point of civic nationalism is to see Scotland come forward as an independent nation in its own right on its own merits. So why keep looking at things in terms of England? Why does it matter?

But the Unionist position is equally baffling. First, I don't get why anyone would want to see support a political union with a country that they wanted to see fall flat on its face. Then those that do support England, well fine, that makes sense. But here's another thought: if you're supporting England because we're in a political union, then bear in mind that we're also in one with ten other teams besides England in this World Cup: it's called the EU. Will these political fans cheer on France, who cheated their way into the tournament? Will they support Portugal against Brazil? Will they support Germany against Ghana and Serbia? If you're going to choose a national team to support because of politics, then you have to see it through. If you can't, then the notion of supporting one team in particular looks shaky.

Now, this is, as usual, a ridiculously long post about a subject that doesn't really merit it. But it's telling that this has become enough of an issue that it takes up this much time and thought.

It's amazing how many people - both in Scotland and England - enjoyed Euro 2008, because they could afford just to sit back and watch the football for its own sake. Maybe it's time to reclaim that spirit, and either pick a team to adopt for whatever reason we fancy, whether it's for personal connections or the wager we've put on, or just not bother cheering for or against specific teams and simply enjoy the games.

As I said, I'm fortunate in that I'll be enjoying this World Cup relaxing with friends, talking about the games and putting a couple of daft bets on (which reminds me, I'm running the office sweepstake). I can afford to chill out and have a laugh for a month.

And that, I think, is the best way to watch one game of football, never mind 64!

Scotland's Co-Inefficient

Disaster! As if Scotland losing its automatic Group stage spot in next season's Champions' League (though it will be restored should the winners of this season's tournament have gained Group Stage qualification anyway), we now learn that for the 2011-12 Champions' League, there will be only one Scottish entrant, starting in the Second Qualifying Round (though should Scotland remain in 16th place on the rankings, that will, again, move to the Third Qualifying Round if the 2011 winners have already qualified), and that further to that, fourth place in the SPL won't qualify for European competition.

Of course, this all stems from the catastrophic campaigns this season. Motherwell did manage to live up to their seeded status in the First and Second Qualifying Rounds of the Europa League, only to meet stronger opposition in the Third. Aberdeen failed miserably to live up to their seeded status, while Hearts lived down to their unseeded status in the Fourth Qualifying Round. Celtic did at least win the Champions' League Third Qualifying Round tie against Dinamo Moscow as expected to on paper, but Arsenal were always going to prove a bridge too far. However, had they lived up to their Europa League Pot 2 status, they would have been playing a game on Thursday. Similarly, had Rangers lived up to their Champions' League Pot 2 status, they'd have a Last 16 tie to get excited about. Instead, they couldn't even get third place, and a spot in the Europa League knockout stages.

So in theory, while it may mean more games, the down-grading of Scotland's status looks like a temporary setback: for 2010-11, both sides of the Old Firm would most likely be seeded in the Third Qualifying Round, while the SPL winners will be seeded in the Fourth Qualifying Round. The runners-up would not be, but would be guaranteed a Group Stage of some description by then. By winning those games, they would add vital points to the all-important co-efficient.

The SPL winners would almost certainly be in Pot 3 of the Champions' League (Rangers may still be able of nipping into Pot 2, but it's too early to know for sure) and the SPL runners-up would be in Europa League Pot 2: both good for post-Christmas European football and yet more co-efficient points. The remaining teams - are probably in a position to get a favourable draw for the Second Qualifying Round of the Europa League, and may get one for the following round depending on who qualifies and at what stage. The Fourth Qualifying Round may be a bridge too far, but with at least one team likely to win at least one tie, that again sees the co-efficient creep up a little.

Similarly, for 2011-12, one would expect the SPL winners to walk the three Qualifying Round ties and reach the Group Stage in Pot 3 - so a spot in the Europa League Round of 32, and perhaps even Round of 16, beckons on paper. The SPL runners-up would be expected to sail through their two Europa League Qualifiers and reach the Group Stage in Pot 2. Again, good for the Round of 32. While the team joining the SPL Runners-Up in the Third Qualifying Round has a chance of getting a good draw and advancing one stage, and whoever qualifies for the Second Qualifying Round must surely get past that, and maybe a stage more, depending again on who reaches Europe.

So on paper, the reduced ranking may actually be good for Scotland: more games against easier teams, so more wins and more co-efficient points.

But as the cliche goes, games aren't played on paper. Firstly, no Scottish club managed to exceed expectations this season. Rangers fell well short of what the draw projected; Celtic initially ticked the necessary boxes but still missed out on the likely final target of the Europa League Round of 32; Hearts weren't really expected to progress out of the EL Fourth Qualifying Round and didn't; Aberdeen failed to get past an unseeded team; Falkirk couldn't beat a team relegated from the Swiss League (which now overtakes Scotland on the rankings) while Motherwell went as far as the seeding structure allowed them. On average, therefore, one would expect a Scottish club to fall one level short of what's expected.

So next year, the SPL Champions might well get to the Group Stage even without the aid of a technicality, but they'll be lucky to be playing in the Europa League after Christmas. The Runners-up will fall into the Europa League and, again, will be unlikely to get past the Group Stage. As for the others, the most positive likely outcome that can be projected is that the team joining proceedings in the Fourth Qualifying Round will lose with dignity to a team considerably higher up the rankings.

The bottom line is this: unless Scottish clubs can start meeting expectations, and in the current financial climate that looks difficult, then those expectations are bound to be lowered. It might be a lean couple of years...

On the teams I support

If you'll indulge me, I'd like to begin this post by reviewing a football match. And I'll do so from a biased perspective: the match in question is Tuesday night's English Premier League tie between Wigan and Stoke, for which I put my Latics' Season Ticket to use, and saw from my usual vantage point of the East Stand (now known as the Boston Stand).

And what a bizarre game it was! The first half was amazing, with lots of open play, attacking football and good creative manoeuvres. Moreover, the bulk of the excellent play was coming from Wigan, who were doubtless playing according to Roberto Martinez's philosophy of playing one's way out of trouble. For once, the formula was working, and Wigan were rewarded when Paul Scharner scored. Indeed, the Latics were unfortunate not to add to their tally before the break, but the performance was a good one: Emmerson Boyce was solid in defence, Chris Kirkland pulled off some excellent saves when required, Charles N'Zogbia and Hugo Rodallega were both marvellous and even Jason Scotland was putting a good shift in: a Premiership goal still eludes him but his shots were, at least, on target. Stoke offered a few meaty challenges and had the occasional spell of pressure which they couldn't do anything with, so the Wigan players went back to the dressing room with their tails up and at that point, the Wigan fans were the loudest - that doesn't happen very often.

Then came the second half, and Wigan had a decent shout early on - including an overhead kick by Hugo Rodallega that missed the target by a whisker - but that, I'm afraid, was that. I have no idea what Martinez said in the dressing room, but whatever it was, it was bad advice. Maynor Figueroa's now routine abysmal performance - plenty of dicking around to no real consequence save the increased likelihood of the opposition winning the ball - served only to prove to me why he is, barring the amazing goal he scored against Stoke at the Britannia Stadium earlier on in the season, is the Most Overrated Player in England. Titus Bramble appeared to have left his brain in the dressing room (and why has Martinez made that idiot Captain in the absence of Melchiot?), alongside that of the manager's, who decided that to make room for Victor Moses, he needed to take off James McCarthy, who is having a decent spell. Right player to bring on, wrong player to take off. Then he compounded that error by replacing Jason Scotland with the dire Jordi Gomez, who clearly has bags of potential but is patently never going to realise it in a Wigan shirt. Sensible player to take off, but if Gomez is the answer, then I shudder to think what the question was. The only one that springs to mind is, "Who can we bring on to turn a perfectly competent midfield into a sack complete and utter shite?".

Similarly, Stoke were no great shakes either until the introduction of Ricardo Fuller, and it looked like they were going to squander every opportunity Wigan gave them to play well and get something from the game. And believe me, Wigan gave them far too many opportunities. We may as well have wrapped the ball in a ribbon and affixed a tag reading, "To the Stoke players, loadsa luv, the Latics xxx".

So it was no surprise that after almost half an hour of my life that I wanted back, Ricardo Fuller breezed through a gap between the hapless Figueroa and Bramble, and crossed the ball into the box, where it met the head of Tuncay and sailed past Chris Kirkland, who wasn't expecting it to come anywhere near him. Well, it did, but he didn't get to it and it landed in the back of the net.

This meant that a game which Wigan should have won convincingly was turned into a draw, and it was the team's good fortune that Fulham and Burnley both lost while Sunderland could only draw against Portsmouth.

So why I am telling you all this?

Simple. We are now well into the second half of the Scottish Parliamentary session. The first half saw the SNP victory, the Glasgow East win, the European election victory, the abolition of bridge tolls and the Graduate Endowment, the passage of the first minority budget and the eventual passage of the second when the opposition's initial tactics backfired, while the potential bunfight over Trumpton was deflected, but targets were missed: had the funds been there, perhaps more could have been done on student debt; the Local Income tax had to be dropped; and the success in Glasgow East was not followed up with comparable results in Glenrothes and Glasgow East. But still, the SNP were on an upturn, and opposition attacks weren't coming to anything.

We're now back on the pitch for the second half. And that organised performance appears to have evaporated: an attempt to raise party funds in response to a party that has Union backing and another which has Lord Ashcroft bankrolling it has turned into a '-gate' because before we get into a discussion of what's within the rules and what isn't, it never occurred to anyone to question what selling a lunch date with the First Minister would look like in the press, thereby forgetting the Basic Rule that in politics, facts take second place to appearances. Losing John McNamee might not be the worst thing in the world, but losing an exasperated Alex Dingwall, an SNP member of 31 years' standing, to the Liberal Democrats is not news you want to wake up to. This morning we discover that the Referendum Bill is to go no further than the limbo that is draft stage for the time being. And now, in an honest attempt to do the decent thing by a constituent, Nicola Sturgeon has ended up tethered by the press to a benefit fraudster, and will be expected to turn up in Parliament after the recess to explain herself simply for trying to be a good constituency MSP but by doing right thing with the wrong person.

I guess what I'm trying to say is this - and I apologise to those of you who don't like fruity language but it needs airing: What the fucking hellfire is going on in the Party?!

The need for the SNP to keep up the strong performances of the last two years is greater than ever: we're going into a Westminster election where the choice is clear. There are Labour representatives whose only priority is to stay in power at any cost, whose Whips advise new MPs to falsify receipts (that is, if we are to believe Jim Devine, the man elected as a Labour candidate, who admitted on Channel 4 that if he had thought that he'd broken the law, he'd try to cover it up), and who has seen Scotland as little more than a source of vote fodder. There are prospective Tory MPs, whose party has somehow contrived to have even fewer ideas as to how to improve people's lot than Labour presently do and whose Scottish Leader has basically told Scotland that it'll have to get what it's given (some respect agenda, that). There are those under the LibDem banner, who have given us no indication as to what lengths they'd go to to implement their programme should the opportunity arise, whose idea of liberal democracy is to deny people self-determination and whose idea of the new, consensus politics is to slag off Alex Salmond at every opportunity. In short, an SNP providing clarity and principle is just what Scotland needs right now.

And the ability to deliver on that is still there: the people are the same ones who delivered those early successes and their commitment is as strong as ever. Meanwhile, Iain Gray looks no more credible as an alternative FM than he did a year ago and is not helped by his frontbench - which strikes me as the political equivalent of an oversized novelty cheque: it might look good for display or PR purposes, but has no practical value whatsoever. That two of its members wish to look for alternative opportunities at Westminster is also damning. Annabel Goldie's comments regarding Scotland having to just put up with a Tory government that it didn't want proves that for all her bluster about the Labour Group at Holyrood, the "apologist for Whitehall" tag will simply pass to her when David Cameron enters Downing Street. And Tavish Scott? Well, somehow, he's ended up as the most constructive and mature of the three main opposition leaders in Holyrood. And he still wants to kill SNP Ministers simply to watch them die!

So the opposition, like Stoke on Tuesday night, is still playing a fairly dire game. And yet for reasons passing understanding, the SNP - just as Wigan did - is letting them in to proceedings, and giving them the chance to take a few shots. Wigan fans once again saw, as the team should have learned by now, what happens if one of those shots hits the target. Let the SNP learn from the Latics' mistakes.

The Old Firm and the SPL

As my old friend Rob has noted, that old chestnut of the Old Firm heading for the English setup is back. Again. Now, in many ways this fact is probably the biggest argument in favour of letting Rangers and Celtic move as it means that the back pages of Scottish newspapers need never again be filled with such tedious handwringing. But on a more serious level, I'm not sure it's all it's cracked up to be:

Firstly, there's the idea of stadium capacity. Celtic can fit 60,000 into their ground and Rangers more than 50,000 but Newcastle United had the third-largest stadium capacity in last year's Premiership. They now have the largest ground in the Championship, so the lesson we can draw from Newcastle (and the lesson that the Glasgow teams would do well to remember) is that gate receipts don't determine the league table.

Plus which, the main rationale for the OF heading for England would be to compete better in Europe. Now, let's see: the English Premiership is dominated by the Big 4 - Man U, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool - with Man City using their new found wealth to break into that rather cosy cartel. It's rather similar to the Old Firm's dominance of the SPL, except no one is as yet seriously advocating that the major teams up sticks and move to a European SuperLeague where they don't have to slum it at places like the Reebok Stadium. Anyway, the English League is allocated four Champions' League places and three Europa League places - so that's five of the seven European spots - including all the CL spots - filled before the Old Firm even get a sniff. That's just two left and the OF will face tough competition for them from Spurs, Aston Villa and even Everton in a good year. And if you think that the Old Firm have a snowball's chance in Hell against the Big 4/5 in a competitive environment, just bear in mind what happened to Celtic against Arsenal: they found themselves in the position that Wigan usually end up in against the major teams - with the notable exception of the Latics' 3-1 victory over Chelsea last month, of course. Now, the Wigan model is fine for clubs like, well, Wigan. Or Reading. Or Hull before Phil Brown's canoe plunged over the edge of Lunacy Falls. Or Burnley. It should not be a consideration for the Old Firm. Ever. A move South wouldn't be a ticket to a better Champions' League performance, but a passport to mid-table obscurity and a season that has fizzled out by March.

Then there's the effect on the other 10 SPL teams. With money tight - so tight that Aberdeen couldn't sign anyone of note this Summer - every penny counts and it's a question of bums on seats.

Pittodrie's highest attendance last season was against Rangers - 20,441 and more than 7,000 higher than the average. Tannadice's highest gate was the Helicopter Sunday title decider against Rangers: 14,077 and 5,000 greater than average. Rugby Park saw almost double the average gate turn up to see them play Rangers. The closest thing to a capacity crowd that the Falkirk Stadium saw last season was against Rangers. 4,000 greater than the average gate turned up at Fir Park when Rangers were away to Motherwell. Inverness CT's highest gate came against Celtic. And the closest thing to full that New Douglas Park got was the Rangers game. So out of ten non-OF clubs, seven saw their highest gates come against the Old Firm. Of the other three, two grounds saw their highest gates for the Edinburgh derby, while St. Mirren Park got its highest gate for the new stadium's official opening.

But the clubs can't open a new stadium every week, so with the exception of the Edinburgh derby, the implication is clear: Old Firm games = ticket sales. That's part of the reason that the SPL insists on teams playing each other at least three occasions. That means extra visits from the big boys, and extra gate receipts. That's something the other clubs might want to bear in mind before they start muttering 'Good riddance'. And that's before you ask just how easy it would be to market an Old Firm-free SPL for TV rights. You think the Sky/ESPN deal was crap? Enjoy your slot on BBC Alba, kicking off at 3:15 on a Sunday, with the second half clashing with the main Super Sunday fixture on Sky.

Then there's the old chestnut that the Old Firm hoover up the talent from the other clubs, particularly Hearts and Hibs. Except that since the 2008 Summer transfer window, only two players have gone to Glasgow from another SPL club: Willo Flood - who was on loan to Dundee United from Cardiff anyway - and Lukasz Zaluska. Hibs lost as many players to Berwick Rangers in the last transfer window alone as the entire SPL-10 did to Celtic and Rangers in the last two combined. Right now, the Championship is the main destination for players - if they're lucky - and that'll still be the case wherever the Old Firm play.

And as for the Old Firm? Well, as Rob points out, they wouldn't be wise to buy the likes of Novo or Flood and would have to set their sights a little higher. Unfortunately, such players are the best they can afford. Celtic are treading water and Rangers are still in debt, and while they'd get more TV money in the Premiership, that would be offset by the loss of European income in the time it took to assemble a squad that could compete for a European place, and even then, they'd still be outgunned by the Big 5. There'd be a gulf between what they needed and what they could get, and their only hope would be to emulate Steve Bruce's scouting network and poach someone from Peru or El Salvador.

Then there's the famous 'Welsh Precedent' or 'Liechtenstein Principle'. What the latter overlooks is that Lichtenstein doesn't even have a league of its own - only a cup, which is nearly always won by FC Vaduz, who got relegated from the Swiss top flight last season. Even the Welsh Precedent overlooks the fact that the modern Welsh setup was put in place a century after its English counterpart, so UEFA hasn't as yet had to deal with a club quitting their existing national set up for someone else's - usually, the reverse is true. But with the Welsh Premier League now running, how has playing in England been for those who stayed behind?

Cardiff and Swansea have done OK out of things: the former is well established in the Championship - and can poach a number of SPL players - but the Premiership remains just tantalisingly out of reach. Swansea are in the Championship and are doing OK for themselves, albeit missing Roberto Martinez. As for the others, Wrexham are now in the Conference, and are lucky to remain in existence after a turbulent couple of years off the pitch. Newport County are plying their trade in the Conference South, Colwyn Bay have eschewed the Welsh League for the glitz and glamour of ties against the likes of Chorley, Bamber Bridge and Leigh Genesis in the footballing hothouse that is the Unibond First Division North. Merthyr Tydfil, meanwhile, are rooted to the bottom of the Southern Premier League, and have been in administration for the last four months. The Old Firm are likely to do better than even Cardiff and Swansea, but should remember that England is not necessarily the land of milk and honey.

Then the Welsh teams who formed the Premier League haven't had life easy in Europe either. In fact, in the last five years, only three teams have ever made it beyond their first tie and no team has played more than two. Scottish teams take note: even if UEFA lets Scotland keep the co-efficient points that the Old Firm have accumulated on the others' behalf - despite Rangers losing to Kaunas and Celtic to Artmedia Bratislava - a slide down the rankings is surely inevitable. After all, only one non-Old Firm team has played more than one tie this season: Motherwell (who, funnily enough, beat Llanelli) - and they only got in because of the Fair Play rules, and benefited from being placed in the First Qualifying Round against teams primarily from leagues of - how can I put this? - a weaker reputation in European football. Imagine Hearts filling Rangers' place in the Champions' League Group stage - in Pot 4, probably against Man United, CSKA Moscow and Besiktas (based on Olympiakos replacing Rangers in Pot 2, and Wolfsburg replacing them in Pot 3). Imagine Aberdeen's Champions' League Qualifier against Panathinaikos. Even if they beat them, can you imagine Aberdeen up against Arsenal? Even if Dundee United and Hibs got something together - and Hibs' record in the old Intertoto Cup was less than stellar, remember - the likelihood is that Scotland would be sliding down the UEFA Club Rankings faster than you could say "national disgrace".

And of course, that's predicated on the Old Firm's points staying in Scotland. As things stand,
for the next two seasons, Scotland will have two teams in the Champions' League Third Qualifying Round, then three teams in the Europa League qualifiers, coming in in the Second, Third and Fourth Rounds. Without the Old Firm's points, Scotland's entitlement dwindles to a team in the Second Qualifying Round of the Champions' League, and three teams in the Europa League: one definitely in the Second Qualifying Round (where Falkirk got knocked out), one definitely in the First, and one in either depending on whether or not UEFA had to award a special place in the Group Stage to the winner of the previous season's Europa League. While comparisons with the League of Ireland may seem unfounded when you look at the health and attendance of clubs there, that's exactly the same position that the Irish were in this year when it comes to European football.

Basically, for European football, the Old Firm and the SPL need each other. Full stop. Without one, the other can't make real inroads into Europe.

And even if you disregard the absence of European cash, the change to the Old Firm's balance sheets by defecting to the Premiership wouldn't translate into anything useful, and the loss of the Old Firm would do massive financial harm to a League that needs every revenue stream it could currently get.

The Old Firm still wouldn't get players of the required calibre, and their departure wouldn't stem the flow of players out of the other clubs. Right now, the Old Firm benefit from being big fish in a small-ish pond. Certainly they benefit more from that than they would from competing for ninth place with the likes of Fulham, Sunderland and Wigan.

Even in England, 18 Premiership teams might benefit from extra gate receipts when the Old Firm come to town, but to make way for Rangers and Celtic, Premiership status would have to be withheld to others - possibly one extra team relegated and one fewer team promoted from the Championship. Can you imagine being in 17th place in the Premiership that year, booted out of the League solely to make way for a pair of Glaswegian cash cows? Can you imagine being second in the Championship, and losing a play-off you wouldn't even have to play under normal circumstances, or being sixth and being denied a play-off place that would, ordinarily, be yours? And then there'd be the ripple effect down the English pyramid, as clubs had to make way for others knocked down because of changes at the top? Imagine supporting a team who would lose League status because of this. Even if you implemented Phil Gartside's proposed Premiership 2, that would have the same impact as the SPL 2 proposed for Scotland. It would still be a side-show, and miss the point of why the top flight teams broke away in the first place.

No. This would represent a bit of extra cash for the Old Firm that wouldn't do much good in the Premiership transfer market so would be counter-productive in terms of European ambition, and a few extra gate receipts for the lucky teams. But the damage it would do to so many clubs, in Scotland and in England, would be immense. It's not worth it.

The Old Firm have to stay. For now, at least. Even if that means a few more years of those turgid newspaper headlines.

What is it about death that brings out our inner hypocrite?

It's striking just how large a part of the footballing world was willing to pay tribute to Sir Bobby Robson, who died this week. But with such a long and distinguished career, it's not hard to see why. For me, my earliest memory of the man was at the 1990 World Cup, when England lost out on penalties to West Germany, coming fourth to Argentina.

Here's something to consider when looking at just how good Sir Bobby was: he was the third longest-serving England manager, behind only the first to occupants of the post, the wonderfully named Sir Walter Winterbottom and Sir Alf Ramsey. They lasted 16 and 11 years respectively; Sir Bobby was in the post for eight.

And take a look at his successors: Graham Taylor took over after Italia '90. His England team found itself propping up Group A at Euro '92 in Sweden, and didn't qualify at all for the USA '94. He left the job in November 1993.

Terry Venables didn't have to go through a qualifying round for Euro '96, but the story had a familiar ring to it: losing in a penalty shootout to Germany, in the Semi-Finals. He left after the tournament.

Glenn Hoddle took England to the Last 16 of France '98, where they were knocked out by Argentina on penalties. He began the qualifying campaign for Euro 2000, and would have finished it were it not for a rather unfortunate interview in which he suggested that (and I'm paraphrasing here) disabled people must have been bastards in a previous life. He lasted, in all, two and a half years.

After losing a Friendly under Howard Wilkinson, England then turned to Kevin Keegan, who got no further than the Group Stage of Euro 2000, and embarked on the qualifiers for World Cup 2002 only to resign after losing his first qualification match to Germany. He lasted 18 months.

Following this, England drew 0-0 with Finland under Howard Wilkinson, and lost to Italy under Peter Taylor, only for Sven-Goran Eriksson to take over. He lasted five years, taking England to the Quarter Finals of the 2002 World Cup, Euro 2004, and the 2006 World Cup, losing to Brazil, Portugal and Germany respectively - the latter two on penalties.

Basically, when you look at that record, Sir Bobby did very well indeed to work for the FA for as long as he did, and to get as far as he did in a World Cup.

But there are some who did not see his inconsiderable talents - not that you'd know it from this week's press:

"It's very sad, especially on Tyneside. The whole of Tyneside will be grieving. Sir Bobby Robson was a great man and will be sorely missed.

"I worked with him for five years every day. He was certainly the best manager I ever worked with at Newcastle. He never put me under pressure and always tried to see my side.

"He wouldn't put up with fools and didn't take any nonsense. He came across as a very kind guy but underneath was very tough. He thought about football 24 hours a day and he would ring me at all hours of the day and never stopped thinking about football."

That was Freddy Shepherd, the former Chairman of Newcastle United, Sir Bobby's former club. It's hard to believe that this was the same man who sacked Sir Bobby less than a month into the 2004-05 season. Shepherd sacked him because of results: just four games in to the season, which the Board has decided would have been Sir Bobby's last in charge anyway. And he had taken Newcastle to the Semi Finals of the FA Cup and UEFA Cup, the Top 3 in the Premiership and the Last 16 in the Champions' League - all unthinkable prospects now for a Newcastle side which will be playing in the Championship this season.

And now Shepherd has the gall to come out and sing the man's praises - the man he himself cut loose five years ago!

It would, of course, have been hugely inappropriate for Shepherd to stick the boot in this week of all weeks, but given his treatment of Sir Bobby, he could at least have had the decency to stay quiet, and let the people who showed respect for the man while he was alive pay their respects to him at his death.

Indeed, he could have done worse than to follow the example of Dennis Canavan, who found himself at loggerheads with Donald Dewar on a regular basis, and did not buy in to the reaction to the First Minister's death in 2000, but at least had the sense not to make any sanctimonious tributes at the time.

But for now, my general belief is that the gobshite Freddy Shepherd should, for once in his life, shut up, and let real football fans do the talking.

It's not Santana, or Sultana, or Banana; it's screwed

I note that the English Premier League has opted to withdraw Setanta's rights to 46 matches for the coming season, on the grounds that the broadcaster has failed to make an expected £30million to the League before today's deadline.

This shouldn't be a surprise: Setanta couldn't find £3million for the SPL a few weeks ago, and attempts to find a buyer have failed. Significantly, we now know that the sticking point appears to have been Setanta's £50million unpaid tax bill.

Credit is due to the Premier League for acting: they had a contract with Setanta; Setanta has failed to meet its obligations in that contract by stumping up the cash; the contract was broken; the rights are no longer theirs.

It's in stark contrast to the SPL; they did the right thing in making sure that the money that would have gone to the clubs got there, even if it came from SPL funds, but we do have to ask why the SPL is sticking with this failing organisation.

It would surely be tempting for Sky to get back into the Scottish market in a serious fashion, and reports from SPL grounds on Soccer Saturday would be welcome. Similarly, the BBC might fancy getting a big draw to accompany their English Championship acquisition, particularly now Formula 1 looks like it's about to go belly up, the rights that Auntie picked up there might not be quite so useful, so the SPL might go some measure to a replacement. Sky did have the rights once upon a time, before ten of the SPL clubs took leave of their senses and decided that an SPL TV channel was the way forward. They consequently ended up with no broadcast agreement, a League at war with itself and an emergency deal with the BBC. Which is why they may also wish to step into the breach.

So what happened? Simple: Setanta had a solid subscriber base in Scotland, and with expats, thanks to the captive audience they had. If you wanted to watch an SPL match, you needed Setanta. That's how Sky did so well: they created the captive audience for the EPL which the European Commission has since objected to. They were also, in theory, a good channel for the diehard footie fans: Bundesliga, Ligue 1 and Eredivisie matches were an extra selling point. Then came the jewel in the crown: the extra EPL games.

However.

The SPL is a draw in Scotland, and among Scottish expats. However, the (ancedotal) evidence I've put together is that most of my neighbours here in England wouldn't pay to watch an SPL game. in fact, barring Old Firm matches, wouldn't overly fancy watching a game if you paid them. Now, sometimes, they're missing out on something special, but equally, there are many occasions where you can't blame them. Further, the extra games from other leagues are a point of interest, but none of those in the Setanta portfolio are particularly big draws. The one that people are especially interested in is La Liga - doubtless more so with the strength of Barcelona and the potential return of the 'Galactico' signing policy at Real Madrid - and Setanta do not have the rights to this. One also worth watching is Serie A, particularly with clubs' plans to form a Premier League-esque breakaway known as Lega Calcio Serie A. Again, this is not offered by Setanta. Then there's the Premier League package. Sadly, it's the bottom of the barrel games. On a weekend when Sky might offer Chelsea v. Liverpool and Man United v. Arsenal, Setanta might put up Portsmouth v. Sunderland. Oh dear.

In short, the package they offered didn't really do much to attract many more subscribers than they already had. And, having outbid Sky for one of the EPL packages, they paid too much for what they had.

And even if it had offered more tempting games, viewers had to put up with the crap camera work (one camera, with a lens that went unwiped when it got wet) and a signal so weak that it cut out with even the lightest of drizzle. Whatever you thought of the matches, everyone agreed that the coverage was shite.

The EPL will live without this: they'll find a buyer for the 46 matches, and despite rumblings about West Ham's new owners, the clubs aren't in any major financial trouble. Besides, there's always the Sky package.

For the SPL, however, it's panic stations: there are hints that three SPL clubs could be badly hit without a TV deal (given Kilmarnock's dire prophecies about the threat of relegation, they're probably one of them) and with no additional exposure, would be unattractive for sponsors. That's two important income streams wiped out. Never mind the armchair fan, it's the ones who go to the games who could be screwed when their club is so badly hit. If Setanta is at risk of collapse - and it's now obvious that that is the case - a new deal, any deal, needs to be worked on ASAP.

Unless, of course, someone is mad enough to buy Setanta, and take on an annual loss of £100million.

Has anyone got Mike Ashley's phone number?

The Obligatory Football Post

You thought the football season was over, didn't you? Well, it is, but preparations for the new one are underway, and we therefore await the draw for the first two Qualifying Rounds of the Champions' League and Europa League.

For Rangers, winning the League made things simple: their prize is an automatic place in the Group Stage, where the likelihood is that Pot 3 beckons for the Group Stage Draw at the end of August, unless three teams from Arsenal, Lyon, Shakhtar Donetsk, Sporting Lisbon and Panathinaikos get knocked out in the Qualifiers, in which case, Pot 2 becomes a possibility.

For Celtic, their final-day failure makes things complicated. And difficult. They enter the Third Qualifying Round, in which they will be seeded. However, as UEFA have split domestic league winners from lower-placed teams in stronger leagues, their pool of opponents is reduced to five teams: Sparta Prague, Steve "Schtop, schtop, thish acschent ish not ready yet" McClaren's Twente Entschede, Dinamo Moscow, FC Timisoara and Sivasspor.

If they are unfortunate enough to lose that tie, they go into the Europa League Play-offs, where they'll probably be seeded. If they win their Third Qualifying Round tie, however, they go into the Champions' League Play-offs, where they will not be seeded under any circumstances. They could face Arsenal or Lyon. Other possible opponents are Shakhtar, Sporting or Panathinaikos. If they get knocked out in the Third Qualifying Round, VfB Stuttgart, Fiorentina and Atletico Madrid are the next teams in line to be seeded. Celtic do not get a look-in.

If, by some miracle, they do win this tie, they'll probably go into Pot 3 for the Champions' League Group Draw. Pot 2 isn't a mathematical impossibility, but it is highly improbable, and there would have to be a lot of upsets. If they lose, they go into the draw for the Europa League Group Stage instead, and they'll probably end up in Pot 2.

For Hearts, their third place gives them a spot in the Play-off Round of the Europa League. Unfortunately for them, however, they won't be seeded, so possible opponents include, but are not limited to, UEFA Cup Runners-Up Werder Bremen, Villarreal, Zenit St. Petersburg and Benfica, but that's only the tip of the iceberg: there are 38 potential opponents, many of which we can't yet identify and won't be able to until the Qualifying Rounds start. If they get through that, they'll go into the Group Stage but they'll more than likely end up in Pot 4.

Meanwhile, Aberdeen sneaking fourth place gets them a spot in the Europa League Third Qualifying Round, where they will be seeded. They have 35 potential opponents (well, assuming that Falkirk and Motherwell a) get there and b) aren't seeded, 33) coming from countries such as Serbia, Israel, Cyprus, Sweden, Slovakia, the Republic of Ireland, Slovenia, Poland, Croatia and Finland. Assuming they win that tie, they go into the Play-off and aren't seeded. If they do get into the Groups, they too are probably going to end up in Pot 4. Mind you, an awful, awful seeding didn't pose that big a problem for them in the 2007-08 campaign under Jimmy Calderwood.

Falkirk's Cup run gets them a place in the Second Qualifying Round, where they will be seeded, with any one of 40 possible opponents coming from places such as Belarus, Bosnia, Hungary, Georgia, Moldova or Iceland. And whatever happens, they will go into the hat for the Third Qualifying Round as the draw for that tie takes place between the first and second legs of the Second Qualifying Round. Therefore, we know already that Falkirk will not be seeded in the subsequent game (assuming they get to play it). They have 39 possible opponents (they can't meet Aberdeen), including AS Roma, Hamburg, PSV Eindhoven and, closer to home, Fulham.

Meanwhile, they say that nice guys don't win football games, and perhaps Motherwell's failure to get into the Top Six last season proved that. However, they were rewarded for their pleasantness with a UEFA Fair-Play League place in the Europa League First Qualifying Round, in which they will be seeded: possible opponents come from the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Albania, Kazakhtan, Armenia, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Faroe Islands, Luxembourg, Montenegro and Malta. As the draws for the First and Second Qualifying Rounds take place on the same day, we know that Motherwell will be seeded should they win, but, like Falkirk, will not be seeded for the Third Qualifying Round draw.

So for Scottish football fans, the competitive football season begins in less than two weeks, on 2 July, when Motherwell play their first match. How time flies!

PS I should, of course, credit Bert Kassies for this, who does all the hard work so schmucks like me can just take a look at it without having to work it all out for themselves...

V are not amused

The previously unthinkable has finally happened: Barry Ferguson has been dropped and stripped of the Rangers captaincy, for his act of gross stupidity on Wednesday night at Hampden.

The eight-hour drinking session following the game against the Netherlands should have set alarm bells ringing, and the Burley compromise - dropping him and McGregor to the bench seemed elegant enough: it didn't require a major overhaul of the squad and left the door open for both players to return should they prove their worth. And of course, Craign Gordon put in an assured performance between the sticks (there wasn't much he could do about the Iceland goal), while Scott Brown may not fully justify the hype he gets, but is good on his day. Wednesday, fortunately, was his day and for me, he performed better than Darren Fletcher, whose presence I simply didn't register for most of the Iceland game. So Ferguson and McGregor get a simple punishment for wrong-doing, they have an opportunity to work their way back into favour, Burley picks too good replacements and Scotland gets the result. Everyone wins. Well, everyone except Iceland.

Except.

Ferguson and McGregor, who in any other walk of life would be suitably chastened at getting a bollocking for acting like complete idiots in the first place (which does make you wonder what, if any, bollocking they got and whether or not any punsihment at all was even Burley's idea), then sit on the subs bench and act like utter children. In so doing, they show the sort of petulance that we shouldn't expect from a job from a professional footballer, but sadly, seems to be all too common. They embarrass themselves, they embarrass their country and - you'd think the second point would be the key one but it's actually this one that seems to generate the bigger hoo-hah - as representatives of their club in the squad, bring Rangers into disrepute.

And the Club acted. Even after the SFA decided either didn't notice or chose to ignore that the pair's actions, the Club told its players that enough was enough, and in so doing, shamed the SFA into further action. Hallelujah.

There's a very large school of thought within the Rangers fanbase which takes the view that the Sun shines out of Barry Ferguson's arse. I must confess that I am not one of its members: I think he's provided an abysmal lack of proper Leadership to Rangers on the pitch since his return from that disastrous spell at Blackburn Rovers; I've noticed his preformances are below the standard you might expect from him, particularly this season, and the effect he's had on Rangers this season has been nothing short of catastrophic. Think of the early games, when Thomson was partnered with Mendes in midfield, and not only did Rangers get results but played first class football. Then Thomson got injured, just as Ferguson returned from the treatment table, and suddenly, a large black cloud of doom hung over Ibrox. The performances evaporated, the results disappeared with them and there must have been times when Mendes wondered what on earth he had done to deserve playing alongside Fergie.

Add to that the malign influence he's had in internal Ibrox politics: Ferguson's lack of respect for Paul Le Guen did more than anyone to undermine the manager - who had his faults, mainly a basic failure to understand that you can't plan for both teams, you can only plan for your own (though I also believe that if his commitment to the club had been cast-iron, he would have learned how to pronounce 'Rangers' and 'Ibrox' correctly) - and it's no co-incidence that probably the best result and most organised Rangers performance under Le Guen's tenure came at Fir Park, in the match after PLG's decision to drop Ferguson. Unfortunately, despite that, the Ferguson Fan Brigade got their way and Le Guen was out. At that point it became obvious where power lay at Ibrox, and Ferguson gained the same aura of invincibility that Alan Shearer enjoyed as a player at Newcastle. What Barry wanted, Barry got.

So perhaps, just perhaps, Barry was trying the same stunt again, trying to undercut George Burley. Again, there's a cogent case against the gaffer: results have been far from perfect (Scotland's place in a play-off berth should be far more secure than it presently is: we are only three points ahead of Iceland and out of the nine teams currently in second place, we rank seventh on the calculations used to determine who gets one of the eight play-off spots), some of the selections have been questionable (you're not teling me that Graham Alexander is the only alternative to Alan Hutton, or that Steven Fletcher justifies his hype, or that Dundee United, Aberdeen and Motherwell don't have any players who could have started for Scotland), you don't alienate a striker who can find the back of the net without even trying to break into a sweat and the last week shows that Burley has a way of being overtaken by events. You don't want that in a Scotland boss, and frankly, I would have preferred Craig Levein at the helm.

But nevertheless, he is the Boss. Not Allan McGregor, and certainly not Barry Ferguson. It's not the place of any player to decide that their manager's jacket is on the proverbial shoogly peg. That Fergie was allowed to get away with it ever was pitiful.

And the sad thing is, that despite Ferguson being the likely source of the troubles, he will probably salvage something: the pair of them don't have much of a future in Scottish football but Ferguson does at least have Dick Advocaat in his corner and will more than likely end up joining the Dutchman at Zenit St. Petersburg; Allan McGregor, despite being a decent goalie, could end up being quite literally sent to Coventry.

And all because they couldn't stop one drink turning into a session, then took the huff when they got a bad press.

Whither Football?

Seeing as everyone's looking at ways to take Scottish football forward, I thought I'd add my ideas.

Bringing the SFA, SFL and SPL all under one roof won't work. You'll still get rows. You'll still get clashes. The SPL clubs were sick of the SFL anyway, and that's why they split. The row between the SPL and SFA over fixtures was not a product of the two bodies having separate management, but that the SPL is managed by idiots. It won't harmonise a thing, and if you still have muppets in charge of a combined body then the whole Scottish football structure will go up. And whoever's in charge...

SPL2 is a ridiculous idea. All it would do is shift the First Division clubs from being big fish in a small pond to minnows in a slightly larger pool. The amount of TV cash they got would be greater than at present, but coverage would be limited and ultimately, the larger clubs would take the view that the others were holding them back and would split once again, leaving the smaller ten up the creek without a paddle. Instead I'd...

Expand the existing SPL to 16. The Top 4 in the First Division would doubtless hold their own in an expanded SPL and the only things holding Livingston back right now are their off-the-field woes. It's also a suitable number: the current 12 is flawed, ten would be worse, fourteen would result in only 26 matchdays, while sixteen would enable a calendar of thirty matchdays - reducing fixture congestion, creating a suitably sized league for teams to play each other only twice (reducing boredom) and allowing the introduction of a winter break, which would doubtless be good for playing surfaces. You could also...

Ditch the idiotic split. I mean, seriously, what's the point? You can usualy see what direction the League's going in by Week 33 and the only pize for finishing in the Top 6 is getting gubbed by the Old Firm on account of them needing the points more than the team in sixth place. There's still a bagload of exhibition matches and it just makes the fixture list more complicated. Instead it would be better to...

Introduce Dutch-style play-offs for Europe and relegation. Think about it... it would reduce the likelihood of rubbish games at the end of the season - more positions would matter and even position within the play-off zone would determine who would play whom. The play-offs themselves would have to be keenly contested: relegation would become more interesting with the possibility of two teams going down, and if the Champions qualified for Europe automatically, second to fifth could play-off for the remaining places. You could also offer an opportunity to the sixth to ninth places. Alternatively, it might be an idea to:

Offer a Europa League place to the League Cup winners. Give the non-Old Firm teams something besides pride and a trophy to play for: access to European TV money. And at the other end of the League:

Reconstruct the SFL. Obviously, the departure of fur teams would leave something of a hole in the SFL, and it's clear that the present setup isn't working, hence the drive for SPL2. You could easily move to sixteen-team divisions, and potentially set the stage for...

A Regionalised Second Division. Well, with only eight teams left from the present setup to form a second division, there's going to have to be a massive expansion anyway, and this presents an opportunity to be radical, to bring in a fair chunk of clubs from the lower leagues who could make a decent fist in the League setup. The likes of Preston Athletic, Spartans, Edinburgh City and perhaps even teams from the Universities (as happens in Rugby Union) would be a great addition, to say nothing of a big complement from the Highland League. Also, it's hardly fair for Elgin fans to be expected to travel to somewhere like Annan, so this would reduce the distances for fans and clubs alike. Also, the SFL would start to resemble the English Conference, which might not sound ideal at first, until you realise that if the Conference can attract cash from Setanta...

An SFL TV deal is a must. Let's face it, Setanta will soon be losing some of their English Premiership rights and will need something to fill the scheduling gap (fair enough, it might not draw the punters in like the Premiership, but it's better than a test card), while BBC Alba have expressed an interest in a proper deal for First Division coverage. If people will happily sit down and watch Weymouth v. Ebbsfleet, there's no reason why people couldn't get interested in Ross County v. Clyde. There's a potential service to be provided for the right broadcaster to tie into. It could also be tied up with League Cup rights, as happens in England. But besides that:

There absolutely needs to be a pyramid system. As well as regionalised Second Division, a full-on possibility of relegation from the League altogether. Not the bureaucratic contraption thought up to eject East Stirling (which has since backfired) but proper relegation from and promotion to the League on merit as happens everywhere else. Why? Well, take a look at the teams who have been voted into the League since 1994. Inverness are an SPL side; Ross County or relatively secure in the First Division and Peterhead are pushing for a play-off place in the Second. Gretna reached the SPL at Warp Speed 9 (but the club's setup was unsustainable in the long term) and their replacements Annan Athletic aren't precisely setting the heather alight but look comfortable in the Third Division and are doing far better than some more established names. Only Elgin are letting that line-up down, rooted to the bottom of the third, but there's no way of replacing them with a team like, Deveronvale, who might actually be a credit to the League. But whoever does join them...

SPL reserve sides should not take part. OK, it sounds good to Celtic and Dundee United, but, really, how's it going to work? You'd have to effectively hive them off from the first team completely for it to be fair, you'd have to find somewhere for them to play, a fan base from somewhere that wasn't watching the first team (and, if it came, how would the other clubs cope with it?) and you'd have to decide just how high they were allowed to climb. And if they reached that ceiling, what then? No, it would be a step too far and a total pisstake of the League setup. There does need to be some sort of League for the Reserves (not necessarily based around the SPL), but it should not be the SFL.

He's been linked with everywhere else...

So why don't Labour select Dimitar Berbatov for Glenrothes?

This attempt at a football-politics crossover comes with apologies to Kez, who is currently waiting to find out whether or not she'll be on the ballot paper in Fife.

UPDATE: Obviously Labour weren't willing to offer Spurs the £30million required for Berbatov - and they've plumped with the favourite: Lindsay Roy. We now have candidates from the four main parties... All we need now is a date.

A Glamour Tie for Motherwell?

If I've read Bert Kassies' site correctly, Motherwell, as an unseeded team in tomorrow's UEFA Cup draw, will be placed into a group of 10 for the draw, along with four other unseeded teams, and five seeded teams. Motherwell will face one of the seeded teams. From what I've pieced together - and this could be wrong - I believe that the five teams Well could be drawn against are:

AC Milan
Besiktas
Spartak Moscow
Hertha Berlin
Partizan Belgrade

Motherwell at the San Siro? If I've done the sums right, there's a one-in-five chance...

Oh, and in the Champions' League, Celtic look like they'll come either second or third in Group E - Man U are a shoo-in to qualify for the Knockout Stage as either first or second, Villarreal could come anywhere but 4th, Aalborg look like the minnows of the group, ensuring post-Christmas European football of some form for everyone else, and winning the group outright is a big ask for Celtic but second is a very real possibility.

UPDATE Well, I got the bundle of seeded temas correct, but Motherwell were up against a different group. One hopes that the 11 men of Motherwell will be able to put in a decent performance against the two women, Nancy and Lorraine.

Champions' League Seedings

Well, I'll be a disgusted neutral for this year's Champions' League campaign (I'll want Celtic to perform credibly for the sake of the co-efficient and potential fixture congestion of course, but obviously, no self-respecting Rangers fan wants the enemy to do too well!), but here are the teams that Celtic could face:

In Pot 1 we have Chelsea, Liverpool, Barcelona, Arsenal, Man United, Lyon, Inter Milan and Real Madrid.

Pot 2 contains Bayern Munich, PSV Eindhoven, Villarreal, AS Roma, Porto, Werder Bremen, Sporting Lisbon and Juventus.

Celtic are in Pot 3 so cannot meet Marseille, Zenit St. Petersburg, Steaua Bucharest, Panathinaikos, Bordeaux, Basel or Fenerbahçe.

Pot 4 contains Shakhtar Donetsk, Fiorentina, Atlético Madrid, Dinamo Kiev, CFR Cluj, Aalborg, Anorthosia Famagusta and BATE Borisov.

Let the fantasy draws commence!

Kickoff

In the midst of the Great Glasgow East Frenzy, something equally important is happening in Scottish life: the football season is kicking off today.

So soon? You ask. Well, for Hibs, yes. Today is the first leg of their Intertoto Cup tie against Elfsborg. The prize is a game against either Bohemians or FK Riga, and a win in that tie will give them a place in the Second Qualifying Round of the UEFA Cup.

28 of the 30 SFL Clubs start their season on the 26th of July, in the First Round of the Chalenge Cup. This includes Annan Athletic, who are away to Clyde. Raith Rovers and Morton get byes.

Rangers will start their season on either the 29th or 30th of July, against either Kaunas or Santa Coloma.

The SFL gets underway on the 2nd of August: newcomers Annan are away to Cowdenbeath on that day.

The SPL starts up a week later, with the first match of the season being Rangers' trip to Falkirk - a 12:30 kick-off for the SPL's sugar daddies, otherwise known as Setanta Sports. The other team in Glasgow start at home to St. Mirren 24 hours later, and Hamilton's first foray into SPL territory is on the evening of the 11th, at home to Dundee United.

The 14th sees Motherwell and Queen of the South get their European campaigns underway. And no, I still can't believe I'm typing that.

Finally, Celtic start their Champions' League campaign on either the 16th or 17th of September. And with such illustrious signings as Paddy McCourt, I'm sure they won't have to worry about fixture congestion after Christmas.

An early chance to annoy Vladimir Romanov

I said I wanted Kaunas.

Rangers have got Kaunas - unless Santa Coloma (from Andorra) beat them in the First Qualifying Round - and will play at home in the First Leg.

What are the odds on a load of loans to Hearts being recalled, and a load of Jambos suddenly finding their details being faxed to the Lithuanian FA?

Champions' League Draw tomorrow

The draw for the First and Second Qualifying Rounds of the Champions' League takes place tomorrow. Rangers will be in the hat for the Second Qualifying Round, and are the top seed at that stage. They will, therefore, face an Unseeded team.

The only two unseeded teams to enter at the Second Qualifying Round stage are Israel's Beitar Jerusalem and Hungary's MTK Budapest. The other teams in the hat will all come from the First Qualifying Round. As UEFA assumes that the seeded teams will win their ties, as far as the authorities are concerned, Rangers could be drawn against Domzale (Slovenia), IFK Gothenburg (Sweden), Anorthosis Famagusta (Cyprus), Finland's Tampere United, Georgia's Dinamo Tbilisi, Ventspils (Latvia), Rabotnicki Skopje (FYR Macedonia), Modrica (Bosnia-Herzegovina), Lithuanian Champions and Vladimir Romanov's other toy Kaunas (oh please, oh please!), Moldova's Sheriff Tiraspol, Drogheda United from the Republic of Ireland, and Iceland's Valur Reykjavik. Of course, there could always be an upset on the cards and the Gers could end up travelling to San Marino, Malta, or somewhere equally improbable.

The draw for the UEFA Cup First Qualifying Round also takes place but all that will do is give Queen of the South (and, we hope, Hibs) an idea of who they'll face in the Second Qualifying Round.

Meanwhile, Hibs will play Elfsborg of Sweden, who beat HB Torshavn 4-1 on aggregate, in the Second Round of the Intertoto Cup. If they win that, they'll go on to play FK Riga (who beat Fylkir Reykjavik 3-2) or Bohemians, who gubbed Rhyl 9-3 over two legs. It strikes me that out of those opponents, Elfsborg are probably the toughest, so if Hibs can get past them, they'll be in the UEFA Cup Seqcond Qualifying Round Draw n August.

More football

Mr. Eugenides is dipping his toe into the waters of international football, and is supporting Greece at Euro 2008.

This blog is backing Portugal all the way (and I may well change the colour scheme of the header to match, I haven't decided yet). And I'm not just saying that because I've bet on them to win the thing at 7/1 with Ladbrokes, oh no.

Other bookies are of course available, with Hills, Blue Square and Betfred placing Portugal at 7/1 as well. The Tote and Corals have them at 15/2, but I don't have an account with them and I can't be arsed setting one up while I've got a healthy sum resting in my Ladbrokes account. Also they don't have a shop near me so I've taken the weaker odds. But your local independent betting shop might also offer the better price. In either case, Portugal's current squad and coach do make their odds rather tempting.

Anyway, Germany are the bookies' favourites, at 4/1 at Ladbrokes, Hills, Betfred and Blue Square. Coral offer poorer value 7/2, while the Tote offer a pointless 3/1.

I've just thrown that last bit in for info - I'm not encouraging gambling and this post really is just a warning that the venom content might reach unprecedented levels should Portugal end up on an earlier plane home than they wanted.

Scotland in Europe

With the football season now over - and with only a month until the Intertoto Cup starts - it's time to take a look at Scotland's hopes for European glory next season:

Celtic, having snatched the title at the last possible minute, go straight into the Champions' League Group Stage, where a Pot 3 seeding awaits, unless eight of the nine teams who are both seeded above them and have to play a qualifier fail to reach the Groups. Those nine teams are Rangers, Arsenal, Liverpool, Barcelona, Schalke, Juventus, Marseille, Steaua Bucharest and Panathinaikos so Hoops fans shouldn't hold their breath. They should instead do what they have taken to doing lately, and use their breath to either praise Gordon Strachan to the hilt or call for his execution depending on their most recent result.

Rangers, having simply faced overload, go into the Champions' League Second Qualifying Round, where they will be seeded, and so potentially face a tie against the likes of Beitar Jerusalem, or any number of sides from the First Qualifying Round (personally I'd like to see the Gers take on, and gub, FBK Kaunas, just to see if we can made Vladimir Romanov's head explode!). Anyway, the strongest potential opponent is Rapid Vienna, and they too could end up seeded depending on who wins the Hungarian League. If Rapid Vienna are seede, then UEFA consider NK Domzale of Slovenia to be the strongest side in the mix, and they too would have to play a First Qualifying Round tie.

Anyway, assuming Rangers get past their Second Qualifying Round opponents, then the Third Qualifying Round will see the Light Blues seeded again, only facing tougher unseeded opponents. These include Atlético Madrid, Slavia Prague, Galatasaray and, if they get through two qualifiers, Celtic's one-time conquerors, Artmedia Bratislava.

Getting through this tie would give Rangers a passport to the Group Stage and Pot 3, unless two from Arsenal, Liverpool, Barcelona, Schalke 04 and Juventus get knocked out in the Third Qualifying Round. In the unlikely event that that happens, then Rangers end up in Pot 2.

And for the record, Pot 1 definitely contains Man United (eek!), Chelsea (depends on who their manager is, I suppose), Lyon (eek!), Inter Milan (argh!) and Real Madrid (yikes!). Pot 2 definitely contains AS Roma (hmmm), Porto, Werder Bremen and Sporting Lisbon. Problem is, it's also likely to contain Bayern Munich, PSV Eindhoven and Villarreal.

(Incidentally, if the Third Qualifying Round goes less well for Rangers than they would hope, a seeded place in the First Round of the UEFA Cup beckons, and more than likely a place in Pot 1 of the UEFA Group stage draw.)

Anyway. Motherwell take the spot in the First Round proper of the UEFA Cup, but sadly, won't be seeded, so potential opponents include, but are not limited to, AC Milan, Seville, Valencia, Benfica, Tottenham, Ajax, Everton, Paul Le Guen's Paris Saint-Germain (where you'd have to fancy Motherwell, given PLG's track record agianst SPL teams) and Feyenoord.

Queen of the South, as the losing Cup Finalists, go into the Second Qualifying Round, and curiously, will be seeded. They'll face a team advancing from the First Qualifying Round, and barring any upsets, will be up against opponents from Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Latvia or Lithuania. If they get through this (and judging by their Cup performances that's not as far-fetched as you might think), then they'll join Motherwell in the unseeded section of the UEFA Cup. Given Paul Le Guen's track record against First Division clubs, they'll fancy PSG as well.

Hibs complete the picture, in their Intertoto Cup capacity. Assuming they move past their opposition (and the draw is favourable), they will also be seeded in the UEFA Cup Second Qualifying Round and unseeded in the First Round proper.

And if any of the three UEFA Cup teams do make it into the Group Stages, they're pretty much doomed to Pot 5, unless there's a lot, and I mean a lot, of other upsets.

So on paper, it looks like just the Old Firm in Europe after Christmas, and even then, more than likely in the UEFA Cup. How about an OF UEFA Cup Final? If they thought Manchester was rough, just wait till they see that...

[EDIT: I did, in my haste, forget to credit my usual source for these matters: the legend that is Bert Kassies. That said, although the work is entirely his, and I have simply distilled it for your delectation and delight, HW has a point: I do need to get out more. However, I live in on the arse-end of nowhere - so if I do wish to go anywhere, I find that the last means of transport home left half an hour before my arrival, and also I wear my geekery as a badge of honour. Just ask the guys at work!]

Now to more important matters

We now know which Scottish football clubs will be involved in which European competitions next season.

With a Man U/Chelsea Champions' League final this season, and those two teams occupying the top 2 places in the English Premier League, the SPL Winners will get their place in the Group Stage. The Runners-up will be a seeded team in the Second Qualifying Round, and should they progress, will be seeded in the Third Qualifying Round as well. This is a good thing as it means that they will not play Barcelona at this stage. For the actual Group Stage seedings, Rangers will go into either Pot 2 or Pot 3 - this appears to be contingent on their performance on Wednesday - while Celtic will go into either Pot 3 or Pot 4 - this has more to do with who get knocked out in the Qualifying Rounds.

Motherwell are confirmed in Third Place, and so qualify for the UEFA Cup, as do Queen of the South, for reaching the Cup Final - Rangers' access to the Champions' League means that QoS will go into UEFA. Unless a mighty upset takes place, they will enter into the Second Qualifying Round, and Motherwell will go into the First Round proper. If, somehow, the First Division side do manage to overturn Rangers, then the reverse will be true. We don't yet know the seedings, though I'd guess that the team in the Second Qualifying Round will be seeded, but that the team(s) in the First Round Proper will not.

Finally, Hibs will go into the Intertoto Cup - by virtue of the fact that only they and Falkirk could be arsed to enter it. They will enter in the Second Round, where they will play the First Leg at home to either Sweden's IF Elfsborg or HB Torshavn of the Faroe Islands. If they get through that, they'll play the First Leg of the Third Round tie at home to one of Latvia's FK Riga, Iceland's Fylkir Reykjavik, Bohemians (from Dublin) or Rhyl. If they win that tie, they go into the Second Qualifying Round of the UEFA Cup, where they're a good bet to be seeded, and in fact have a greater chance of being seeded than either Queen of the South or Motherwell.

My thanks, as before, go to Mr. Kassies.

The post you hoped I'd never bore you with

This post is in a way inspired by Alastair's utterly correct post on the UK media's differing methods of reporting on the Champions' League draw (i.e. blanket coverage) - in which four English Premiership clubs had an interest - and the UEFA Cup draw (i.e. naff all) - in which Rangers were involved, and were the only club from the British Isles to be involved, following the elimination of the three English clubs at the Last 16 stage. It's fair to say that the discrepancy is exasperating to any Scottish football fan.

However, despite the absence of any Scottish club - Celtic having been knocked out by Barcelona - from the Champions' League draw, this still matters to supporters of Scottish clubs. Let me explain why.

Those who know me know that I am a football fan - I follow Wigan Athletic (a local thing) and Rangers (a family thing) in roughly equal measure and would be completely torn if by some miracle the Latics ever reached Europe and played Rangers (it would have to be in the UEFA Cup: Wigan reaching it via the Intertoto Cup - we ain't ever going to get in by the Fair Play system - and by sheer luck reaching the Last 32; and Rangers coming third in their Champions' League group, so entering the Last 32 of the UEFA Cup).

Anyway, as you will all know, I'm a total geek, so I jumped for joy when I discovered a site detailing practically the entire UEFA club seeding system by Bert Kassies, a Dutch fan who is clearly to the UEFA Club Co-efficient what ASwaS is to Parliamentary boundaries and voting systems. Bert has got hold of the Access List for next season's competitions, which detail how many clubs countries can enter in the two tournaments, and at what stage those clubs play their first games.

A total of sixteen teams - it always has to be sixteen - automatically qualify for the Champions' League Group Stage:

The title-holders naturally are given the best chance to defend their title.

The three highest-ranked associations - the ranking is determined by their clubs' performances in UEFA competitions over the last five years - get two clubs each in the Group Stages, and two in the Third Qualifying Round - that's Spain, England and Italy. This gives us seven teams in the Groups.

The next three - France, Germany and Portugal - also get two each in the Group Stages, but only one in the Third Qualifying Round. This puts a sub-total of thirteen teams in the Groups.

The next three - Romania, Netherlands and Russia - get only one each in the Groups and Third Qualifying Round. That makes sixteen teams - the magic number.

Scotland are tenth in the rankings, and so get one team - the SPL Winners - in the Third Qualifying Round and one - the Runners-up - in the Second Qualifying Round.

Except...

Given that there are always sixteen automatic qualifiers for the Group Stages, what happens when someone who wins the title could equally have reached the Groups by finishing in the right place in their respective league, and there are only fifteen teams in sixteen places?

You guessed it: the tenth-ranked association gets that all-important sixteenth place, which next season would go to the SPL Champions!

So Scottish football fans need whoever wins the Champions' League this season to be entitled to their place on domestic merit as well.

Therefore:

As Arsenal have a better chance of finishing second in the Premiership than Liverpool, we want the Gunners to advance to the Semis. We want Chelsea - who are currently third but could enter the top two - to beat Fenerbahce - who would have to play a qualifier if they won the Turkish League. As far as Arsenal v Chelsea is concerned, we want whoever wins that to finish in the Top 2 in the Premiership.

It looks like we want Barcelona - who are in second place in La Liga and four points ahead of third-placed Villarreal - to beat Schalke 04 - who are fifth in the Bundesliga and four points behind second-placed Hamburg. Given that AS Roma are second in Serie A, and ten points ahead of third-placed Juventus, they're probably a better team to cheer on than Man United, who are top of the Premiership but only three points ahead of Chelsea. Having said that, I don't see Man U dropping out of the Top 2, so whoever wins is fine, and as three out of the four teams - Schalke are the bad apple - look good for an automatic place in the Group Stage - we want the winner of this eventual Semi to beat the winner of the other one - where one team can't qualify directly for the Groups anyway, one can officially, but realistically won't and the current form of the other two is so shaky that although one of them has to make the Top 2 there's no guarantee that either of them will win their Semi Final (or even the Quarter Final) AND come 1st or 2nd in the Premiership.

I accept fully that this is about as clear as mud, so I will summarise: based on current league positions, it is in the interest of Scottish football fans that Man U, Barcelona or AS Roma win the Champions' League.

And I never thought I'd find myself supporting United in any competition - except at the end of last season when if they'd beaten West Ham, the bastard cheating Hammers would have gone down instead of Sheffield United. But needs must.