Scenes from a Campaign

Jeff is not the only one turning his attention to Livingston today.

Livingston enjoys a fascinating presence in UK political history: for the first 22 years of the constituency's existence, it was represented by Robin Cook, until his death just a few months after the 2005 Election. Now, it should be possible to eulogise and not idolise someone, and Cook was by no means a saint, but he was an impressive performer and of course, presented the most effective case against the Iraq War that anyone could have done during his speech announcing his resignation from the Cabinet. And that departure, incidentally, marked the last principled resignation from the UK Government: the only ones to come close to being based on principle were Clare Short's delayed reaction to the Iraq War and James Purnell's prediction that Gordon Brown would hand the upcoming General Election to the Tories. So Robin Cook, MP for Livingston, former Foreign Secretary and the last member of the Cabinet to resign on principle, enjoys a special place in the books. Whatever his faults, he'll be remembered as an intelligent, high-powered politician and an independent mind. And Livingston will be associated with him.

How tragic, then, that his successor, Jim Devine, should end up in the dock for fraud. That he should have falsified receipts for his expense claims, and worst of all, that he should have defended his actions by claiming that a Whip told him to do that (if the Tommy McAvoy had told him to lie face down on the Westbound carriageway of the M8, would he have done that?).

Yet now we come to the man who would be his successor, Graeme Morrice. Now, he will probably avoid the complete downfall suffered by Devine, but the omens are not good if this leaflet is anything to go by:

Now, it looks like standard fare: the memories of the Thatcher years, and the carping about the SNP - nothing unusual for a Labour leaflet. Nothing positive, nothing hopeful, a quick CV and then the usual attempts to dismiss the SNP as irrelevant while at the same time devoting a large part of the missive to slating them.

But then there's this:

Ah, yes, those memories of the Thatcher/Major years. Such a shame that a Labour Chancellor and Labour Chief Secretary to the Treasury have both come out and said that they'd be far more brutal with the Budget than any of Thatcher and her Chancellors were. How ironic: he could stop George Osborne, but would he even try to stop Alistair Darling or Ed Balls when they start wielding the red pen?

And the rest? Well, see for yourself:

In short, two pages in which he misrepresents who's in charge of West Lothian Council by describing it as an SNP/Tory Council (which will be news to COSLA, who see West Lothian as an SNP/Independent Coalition: the independents in question being Action to Save St. John's Hospital, who have been airbrushed out of political history by Councillor Morrice) and poses for photos on issues which either relate to Holyrood (so he'll be able to do nothing about it) or the local Council (so he'll actually be able to do more about it if he loses and stays on the Council).

It's strange. In a way, Devine is more impressive: he, like his predecessor, has become an icon of the big political question of the day, albeit for all the wrong reasons. And Morrice's photo might not be a police mugshot, but still, his leaflet really ought to be gracing the pages of Glum Councillors. Maybe Livingston could use some anonymity, an MP who won't make waves in the Commons but will turn up at railway stations with an MSP, a placard and a photographer.

Or maybe not...

I had the pleasure of reading Lis Bardell's guest post on Jeff's blog. Lis is the SNP candidate for Livingston and managed to sum up quite exquisitely just how the scandal has hit the area. As it happens, I had the good fortune of meeting Lis at the SNP Spring Conference and found someone who knows her area and knows the people, and clearly relishes chewing over the big issues. She's clearly someone who'll be at ease with local campaigns, but will be incredibly adept at handling the wider questions that go beyond Livingston and affect all of us. In short, I spent an evening at Conference in the company of an intelligent, articulate person with an independent mind. Remind you of anyone?

Maybe a spell out of the limelight isn't what Livingston needs. Maybe, instead, what's needed is a return to the things that connected that part of West Lothian to the wider political scene for all the right reasons.

That, I think, is where Lis comes in.

Devine Retribution?

It looks like the Sunday Herald's penchant for political hatchet jobs has rather neatly combined with the Telegraph's political reporting being sub-contracted to the Witchfinder General, and Jim Devine, MP for Livingston, has been ditched by the Labour Party's NEC.

Devine's deviation was two-fold: firstly, he claimed two grand in expenses for re-wiring work done to his flat. The problem was, the company that billed him didn't exist. Devine claims that the electrician was to blame for this. It might have been possible to give him the benefit of the doubt were it not for another £2000 claim relating to 66 metres of shelving, bought from a local pub landlord. The shelving turned up not in Devine's office or home, but in the cellar of the aforementioned pub, and didn't resemble the specifications given for it. As Karen Dunbar used to say, "I smell shite!", and so did the NEC. Despite the support of his local party, Devine will now no longer be considered a Labour candidate for the next election.

It's fair to say that Robin Cook's successor, elected in the September 2005 By-Election, has taken this badly. He protests his innocence and asserts that he has been hung out to dry. He is therefore tempted to exact revenge on his party, and follow Ian Gibson by quitting, and forcing an early By-Election.

So, Labour faces contests in Glasgow North East, Norwich North, and potentially Livingston as well: the latter would be significant for the second By-Election in one Parliament. The last time this happened was Bootle, which saw By-Elections in May and November of 1990, when the winner of the first poll, Michael Carr, died just 57 days after his victory.

This might not be as bad for Labour as they think: I'd wager that Norwich North will go blue, if the Council elections this year are any indicator; Glasgow North East looks guaranteed Labour on paper, especially given the European election results showing Labour on top here, but still, with momentum behind the SNP (and against Labour), bearing the current mood in mind, and remembering that Glasgow East looked guaranteed Labour on paper, I wouldn't put any money anywhere near that By-Election.

Livingston, however, is a different kettle of fish. Angela Constance slashed the Labour majority in the 2005 Election, and now represents the Scottish Parliamentary constituency of the same name. On paper, given the present state of the parties, this looks to be a hotter prospect for the SNP, and if the two Scottish seats are ranked in priority order, Livingston surely comes first. Indeed, the SNP had a more successful result in that By-Election than in the Glasgow Cathcart By-Election for Holyrood which was held on the same day, and where it looed like victory was being handed to the SNP on a silver platter. That didn't happen, but the strong result at the other end of the M8 deflected concerned eyes from that outcome. Again, the two battlegrounds would be Glasgow and West Lothian, but a smart strategy would see the SNP aiming at the seat that gave them a better return the last time that happened.

So with progress in Livingston begetting further effort begetting further progress (and perhaps victory) for the SNP in Livingston, the Party would be looking East. That would allow Labour to look West, and avoid the humiliation of another possible political earthquake in Glasgow.

It would, therefore, be in Labour's interest for Devine to go now, and get all three By-Elections out of the way on the same day. Norwich North, and the likely Tory gain, would take the headlines, but Labour could spin this easily - anger at Ian Gibson, 'local' issues (these always gets mentioned even if they're not defined), the recent election results showing us that this isn't anything new. The SNP could well take Livingston (especially if, as is rumoured, Devine were to stand for re-election as an Independent), giving them their moment of glory but again, spinnable for Labour - the end of the late Robin Cook's personal vote, anger at Devine, 'local' issues, recent election results showing us that this isn't anything new. But Labour could also win Glasgow North East, giving them something to crow about there. All three parties can come away with something, and would be able to dismiss the other results. If I've called this correctly, everyone wins, except the LibDems.

So for Labour, the worst political aspect of this isn't necessarily the possible By-Election, merely the morass of sleaze that accompanies the expenses row, which has triggered this wave of votes. And strangely, if they fight on three fronts, they might have a better chance of victory on one of them than if they fight on only two.

If I were in Labour now, I'd be goading Devine into Stewardship of the Chiltern Hundreds, and timing every By-Election for the same day. It's their way out of this stramash.

Yes, I know, I'm a cynical bastard, but when an MP claims £2000 for seemingly non-existent shelves, and £2000 for a payment to a non-existent contractor, can you blame me?