23 May 2007


I was bored the other day, so I tried to project what would happen at the next Westminster Election if the parties got the same level of support that they picked up on the Constituency vote on May 3. Taking this ropey premise, and applying some equally ropey methodology, I reckon that Labour would be on 31 (30 if Michael Martin goes for re-election), the SNP would be on 18, the LibDems on 7 and the Tories on 3. This would represent a post-war low for Labour (though, to be fair, there are fewer Constituencies now), but they'd still have a majority of the Scottish seats in the Commons. It would represent the highest number of Westminster MPs ever for the SNP (though there are some odd results in the prediction: I appear to have Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross as an SNP gain, but like I said, the methodology is ropey), and the lowest LibDem total since 1983, when the Alliance picked up eight seats (five Liberal, three SDP, if you're wondering).

I then worked out the outcome of a European election based on the Regional Vote results (I was really bored), and got three SNP MEPs (a record, and a scenario predicted by Grant Thoms in my Comments section), Labour two, the Tories one and LibDems one.

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