Glasgow North East: The aftermath

Well, we've had a few days to ponder the result. Congratulations are due to Willie Bain; clearly Labour have a lot to celebrate, and the SNP a lot to be disappointed about. One thing I would suggest though is that despite it being nigh-on-impossible to talk about swings and trends given the particular nature of this By-Election, and the sheer number of candidates, this is probably broadly in line with what you might expect in a General Election for a seat with Glasgow North East's history, twelve years into a Labour Government, so I don't envisage the result here next year being overly divergent from the result we've just seen.

Of course, the turnout is nothing short of appalling: less than one third of voters bothered to show up, a record low in Scotland for a Westminster By-Election, and the largest dip in turnout in four years. But should we be overly surprised? Firstly, Glasgow North East is not an area in which voters head to the polls in their droves so it's a bit rich for politicians of all hues to muse about voter engagement in places like this now: this is a long-standing problem and it says volumes about how places like Glasgow North East are viewed if they've only just noticed it. Besides, recent By-Elections - Glasgow East and Glenrothes - saw massive levels of interest and only very small reductions in turnout. But By-Elections before that - Dunfermline & West Fife, Livingston and the Glasgow Cathcart By-Election for Holyrood - saw double-digit drops in turnout. What we're seeing, therefore, is a reversion to type. Sadly, it's come in a place where voter interest is already low.

Then there's Labour: clearly their campaign hit all the right buttons. Remember Dunfermline & West Fife, when Labour dismissed the loss as a reflection of local issues? They've learned from that, finally. It's always about local issues and after their success in Glenrothes, Labour have learned to tap into that. The campaign may have been somewhat unsavoury, but it was successful, and to obtain a majority of votes - however few votes may have been cast - does represent a good result. It shows that in places like this, Labour still have a core vote that they can motivate to get out. Predictions that they can use this as a way of turning back the blue tide next year and win a fourth term do seem wide of the mark, and I would expect Labour to be toast in many of their key marginals. Nevertheless, their core supporters are still happy to show up, so a Labour apocalypse is not necessarily on the cards - something that may well worry the LibDems, who are hoping to make gains from Labour in the North of England.

And what of the SNP? Clearly the post-mortem is ongoing but for now, that 20-seat hope is receding into the distance: turnout was low and it's clear that many people saw a reason not to vote Labour, but the SNP did not offer sufficient reasons for those disaffected voters to back them, or indeed, anyone. This is why I disagree fundamentally with Gordon Wilson's analysis: going nasty won't serve any purpose and won't attract anyone. People who live in areas that seem to have been let down by their politicians already know the problems. They know the stats, because they live them. They know that 74 years of representation hasn't turned Springburn into a land of milk and honey. What they want to hear is, "What are we going to do about it?" That didn't come through. Gordon Wilson's idea of street-fighting Labour won't work as people aren't daft: they'll see the world around them and if they're still willing to vote Labour, slagging them off to high heaven won't change their minds. Nor will it attract those who are not: they already know that Labour hasn't delivered, but telling them what they already know won't work. The opposite of his suggestion is the right path: the SNP need to be relentlessly positive. The message in Glasgow East was bright: "Your vote will count!", "When the SNP wins, you win!", "Winning for Glasgow!" and so on. Labour responded with venomous attack after attack. Who won, Gordon? The party with the bright, positive message. Draw your own conclusions.

Then there's the Tories. They can be relieved to keep their deposit, but the message coming from a party that aspires to govern the whole UK has been horrifying: Scottish Tories saying that there just aren't that many Conservatives. What happened to reaching out to other people? George Osborne saying that this contest - and this seat - isn't relevant. What a disgusting message! That throwaway comment is probably the biggest recruiting sergeant that Scottish Labour could have hoped for. Still, despite the Leadership once again showing itself to be the biggest bunch of tosspots in politics, Ruth Davidson came out of this election with a great deal of credit, and should, if she wishes, be destined for progress. Bill Aitken may well have one or two more terms in him, but in the short term, the neighbouring regions to Glasgow might make an attractive prospect for an upwardly mobile, young candidate such as her: with the redrawn Eastwood notionally Tory, and the party only just missing out on a third regional seat this time, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that a third Western Tory seat is still on the cards for 2011, and that she could pick it up. Nor is it overly fanciful to suggest that Davidson could feasibly displace Margaret Mitchell in East Central Scotland. She is the positive of their campaign.

As for the BNP, remember that they already had a base here, and a sense of grievance to play on, so there's a danger in talking them up, particularly those muttering about a BNP MSP. The swing in Glasgow North East, if replicated in Glasgow region, still has them falling well short of picking up a seat. Of course, that hasn't prevented the usual BNP-related hysteria from springing up - firstly, blame has been heaped on the BBC for inviting Nick Griffin onto Question Time. Again, I think that viewers saw Griffin in the light that they wanted to see him anyway so that's not it. Rather, the BNP came forward with an anti-politician diatribe at a time when politicians are held in low regard. And what we had was both Willie Bain and Ruth Davidson almost apologising for seeking office, and going to all sorts of lengths to say how they weren't politicians. That probably played into the BNP's hands: if politicians are bad, the BNP were the full-fat, red meat option. In any case, talk once again has gone onto how to 'defeat' the BNP. Sadly, I don't think it's that simple: the BNP's message plays well with the darker side of the human psyche and prejudice and discrimination aren't new ideas thought up by the BNP. They've been around with us forever and Nick Griffin's cronies merely exploit them. Trying to 'defeat' human nature will fail: rather, actually doing constructive things for the area is the answer. if people think they've got a bad lot, if they see others who they think are doing better, then obviously parties like the BNP will flourish. Better to, you know, take positive action in areas like Springburn to imporve everyone's lives. Then the whole reason for voting BNP vanishes.

Tommy Sheridan, meanwhile, did surprisingly well, when you consider that he's not quite had the same traction of late and the combined Solidarity/SSP vote was at more or less the same level as the unified SSP vote share in 2005 so the rot may have been stopped for now. Of the leftist parties, it's Socialist Labour who have the least to celebrate, as it hit home just how artificial their performance of 2005 was. Nevertheless, for Sheridan, this is quite a coup: you would have expected the SSP to run him far closer here as his stomping ground was the other side of the city and this was Rosie Kane country once upon a time. So perhaps, just perhaps, reports of Solidarity's demise are, as yet, exaggerated. It all depends on the outcome of his perjury trial.

And what of the LibDems? Well, this was nothing short of a humiliation, and it's telling that once again, they have to rely on SNP-focused Schadenfreude to get them through this one. Of course, I've been through why I find it odd that they'd happily cheer the success of such an illiberal party as Labour over one with which they have so much common ground, but then, it's hard to make sense of spite and after all the crowing we've heard from them I have absolutely no qualms in saying that they deserve to be humiliated for the third By-Election in a row, with the ignominy of not even reaching half the required vote to retain their deposit and coming behind a bunch of swivel-eyed fascists proof positive of how they have nothing relevant to offer anyone. They have kept blaming the media for portraying this as a two-horse race: that didn't stop Ruth Davidson keeping her deposit. They'll blame the attention lavished on the BNP, but Eileen Baxendale was a presence on every major By-Election programme. Doubtless they'll refer to their lack of a candidate in the last Westminster election, overlooking the fact that they fielded candidates in this area in 2007, who kept their deposit. They have no excuses, and when they crow about the SNP's result in Dunfermline & West Fife, where the SNP talked up its chances only to come third, it's worth remembering that in the SNP vote actually went up there, to around 20%, so saying that parties outwith the Top 2 are doomed to humiliation in By-Elections doesn't wash - the LibDems couldn't even manage 3%. Rather than being smug at the SNP's failure to win in that By-Election, they should reflect on the fact that the SNP succeeded in doing something that has eluded the LibDems in every Westminster By-Election after that one: keeping its vote, keeping third place, and keeping its deposit. Granted, Dunfermline & West Fife represents a zenith in LibDem fortunes - they'd better hope for their sake that this was the nadir.

The Greens, meanwhile, should probably be disappointed that they've not manged to make further inroads, particularly after such a strong performance in Glasgow in the European elections. But I've said before and I'll say again that the Greens thrive on middle-class guilt (which can be a powerful motivator for positive changes so that's far from a criticism) and this would appear to be in short supply in Glasgow North East.

So to sum up: a good night for Labour, an OK night for Tommy Sheridan, a credible but not overly credible BNP result, something to hold onto for the Tories as long as they keep George Osborne away from any microphones in the future, nothing much to shout about for the Greens but solid under the circumstances, a disappointing night for the SNP and a humiliation for the LibDems.

One last thing, which I've been sitting on for weeks: John Smeaton was never going to give Labour a kicking. At no point were any Labour activists ablaze and jumping out of a burning jeep. Thank you very much, I'm here all week.

The Negative-o-meter: 11 November

David Kerr

During this by-election I have run a 10k race, dug an allotment, called the bingo, spent an evening with an ambulance crew, taken part in a joinery class, and persuaded two former Labour party officials to vote for the SNP.

That's just a light hearted sample of the amazing time I've had over the last 5 months and the experiences I hope will continue if voters in Glasgow North East give me the honour of representing them at Westminster.

More importantly I've met hundreds of people who are actively working to improve lives in this constituency, to bring jobs to this constituency and to create opportunities in this constituency and I've met thousands of people who are ready to vote for a fresh start for Glasgow North East. I hope to be their MP on Thursday night.

With 24 hours to go before polls open I've set myself one last challenge, to speak to another 1000 voters on the doorsteps, in the streets, at the stations and on their way to and from work. If elected that's the kind of challenge I will always live by - to be open, accessible and available to the people of this constituency.

Ruth Davidson

I’ve been out today on the campaign trail with Michael Gove MP, Shadow Secretary of State for Children, Schools & Families visiting the campus at North Glasgow College, in Springburn.

I feel that I know the College very well by now, it has played host to several events during the campaign, and it was great to be able to be able to show Michael around.

Earlier this week I wrote about Conservative plans to get Glasgow, and Britain, working again. However, there is no point in creating new jobs if we don’t give people the skills to do the jobs well.

What is really sad is that many schools force kids who are not academic, to study subjects they don’t enjoy and which they don't do very well in. They then leave school without the skills that they need to get a job and to succeed. Because of that they end up unable to get a job, and get trapped in a cycle of poverty.

Labour have done nothing about this. During the last 12 years they have created a benefits system which punishes people who want to work – with marginal tax rates of above 90%.

Labour’s failed system therefore discourages kids at school from learning the skills that they need, and then once they are adults they are discouraged from coming off benefits. And Labour claim that the Tories are the party who don’t care about poverty.

It can’t be said enough times, the best route out of poverty for people is through work. By getting a job people obviously get extra money. But working also builds up self-respect, a sense of community, and an involvement in the wider world which just doesn’t happen if you are unemployed.

That's why the Scottish Conservatives have talked about introducing more vocational training into schools in Scotland. And it is why places like North Glasgow College play such an important role in giving people the vocational skills they need to get jobs.

Michael said afterwards what a pleasure it was to visit the College. Both of us were very impressed with the staff and students who are working hard to acquire the skills needed for the world of work. We need to encourage more people to come here and learn these skills. That means dealing with Labour’s pernicious benefits system, and it means creating jobs. Only the Conservatives have the policies and ideas that can make that happen.

Willie Bain

It is not every day that a famous comedian drops into my campaign centre to lend support to the by-election battle, and so it was a great pleasure to welcome Eddie Izzard to Springburn this morning.

We are all familiar I am sure with Eddie Izzard on stage, but it is great to meet the man behind the jokes. As tempting as it was to share the odd joke, we thought we'd give him a break before his show tonight.

Funnily enough, it is not the first time I have met Eddie Izzard. We met by chance when he, quite literally, ran past me on Springburn Road back in September while he was taking part in his charity marathons.

When I heard he was in Glasgow today I asked him to pop by to speak to the campaign team and was delighted he said yes. Staff and volunteers showed him around the campaign centre and chatted to him about what we have been doing over the past few months. He was also genuinely interested to hear what my campaign is all about.

I have had great support throughout the campaign and I will fight to the last minute to convince people to choose me tomorrow. I've been out knocking on doors with Iain Gray, Douglas Alexander - and later I'll be with Jim Murphy.

Willie Bain
Labour's by-election candidate

Eileen Baxendale

Another day in the by-election campaign and more doom and gloom statistics for the good people of Glasgow North East to contend with.

We should be helping people not drowning them in statistics about unemployment and benefits.

I want to put my 20+ years experience as a social worker and manager to good use.

Tavish Scott and I have met people from all across the constituency, employed, unemployed, at school, college and university, pensioners who have done their bit and many more besides.

They are looking for answers, not headlines and because I'm not a career politician like some of the others I want to be given that chance tomorrow and put my experience from the real world to good use here in Glasgow North East and help them get the answers.

I want to ask the Governments and the Council how the spending in Glasgow is allocated, down to the last penny and is it fair? Is it going to the right people?

I am certain that the Liberal Democrats and I can make a difference and provide the change in Glasgow North East that is so badly needed.

Labour have had 74 years and have failed. The Conservatives are to busy propping up the SNP in Holyrood and not making the right calls in Westminster.

They voted with Labour on the Iraq war when Charles Kennedy and Ming Campbell led the Liberal Democrats opposition to the unjust and illegal war.

The Conservatives got it massively wrong on Europe and the recession when Vince Cable led the way, a long time before the experts.

We can't trust the SNP, just look at the promises they made in 2007, knowing full well they could never keep them all, just to get elected!

It is this legacy of broken promises and bad decisions from both Holyrood and Westminster as well as the issue of MP expenses that are losing politicians respect.

Well I'm a different kind of politician, I'm a real person and I believe working together we can change Glasgow North East, and its time for that change tomorrow.

By voting for the Liberal Democrats let's bring a halt to the nonsense and change Glasgow North East's future for ever.

The polling stations are open from 7am to 10pm and you don't need your polling card to vote.

Eileen Baxendale
Liberal Democrat candidate

There is the outside chance of the one or two extra posts, but that's pretty much it now. Willie Bain has said very little substantive and even his campaign insights are basically name-dropping. That doesn't help Labour defend themselves against George Galloway's accusation that Bain is a 'nobody' - though I have to admit, I quite liked the Labour response: "Willie Bain has never dressed up in a red Lycra suit and pretended to be a cat on national television"! Incidentally, I'm not sure that Galloway basically calling the people of Glasgow North East idiots is the best way forward for him or for Tommy Sheridan, but that's another matter.

We've had a mixed bag of posts from David Kerr, and the last one was a quick campaign diary, which I think said more about him than it did about his endorsers. That's a good thing. I'd have liked a little more sweet policy meat but that was a broadly positive note to end on.

Ruth Davidson continued her attack on Labour, deriding the state Glasgow North East has got in during the last 74 years of Labour representation (overlooking who was actually calling the shots for 45 of those 74 years), and so potentially helping Labour to win by standing on an anti-Labour platform despite not being their primary challengers. Paradoxically, if a Tory objective is to keep Labour out, it might have been more prudent to go on an anti-SNP line and so split that vote (and keep the SNP vote steady) rather than join the crowded anti-Labour marketplace.

Eileen Baxendale went and attacked everyone, an unfortunate position to which she had been steadily building. I'm also slightly exasperated at the 'I'm a real person' line. Say what you like about the other candidates, but I'm quite sure they are also real people: I'll have to double-check the Representation of the People Act but I'm reasonably sure that existence is a pre-requisite to being nominated for election.

David Doherty only contributed one post in the last week, and it painted a grim picture of the present and near future. And he had nothing to say beyond that quasi-apocalyptic agenda. Yes, the problems he raises are serious, but if he can't go beyond that to the next stage of putting forward positive ideas to tackle those problems, then the Greens have to hope that their efforts beyond cyberspace have been far better than those on The Steamie. "Where's the beef?" doesn't seem like an appropriate question to ask the Greens, though, and "Where's the Quorn?" doesn't have the same impact.

So that's that: the Battle of the Steamie is essentially over. It was a great idea, but for the next By-Election, whenever and wherever it will be, candidates will have to work harder at this - the online efforts this week would, I suspect, struggle to get into a Roundup. All we've really learned this time is that the candidates want to knock seven bells out of each other, that no one likes poverty (duh) and that the blogosphere is still not being used effectively by the candidates themselves.

The Negative-o-meter: 9-10 November

Willie Bain

I was delighted to learn that Sir Alex Ferguson has decided to endorse my campaign for Glasgow North East.

As a Glasgow man himself, Sir Alex knows how the people of Glasgow think and feel. Despite his success, Sir Alex has always stayed true to his roots.

He knows that people need help now to get through these difficult times.

I think Sir Alex’s endorsement is a real boost my campaign. He is well respected by people here – and he knows a thing or two about running a good campaign.

You can head over to my website to see what he has to say. This is me at Petershill FC last week - in the rain.

Willie Bain
Labour's by-election candidate.

Ruth Davidson

Perhaps the biggest theme of the campaign has been how many people have come to me worried about Labour’s jobs crisis. There are 4,212 people in the constituency who have to claim unemployment benefit. That’s up nearly a thousand (989) in just a year and gives Glasgow North East the highest claimant rate in Scotland. That’s Labour’s legacy to Glasgow, unemployment and a jobs crisis.

Labour’s record in Glasgow shows a worrying complacency. Labour closed one Job Centre in Glasgow North East and replaced much of the face-to-face contact in the other with a mere telephone helpline. That isn’t going to help people get jobs. Labour have claimed in this by-election that they care about getting people back into work – but their actions in government don’t back that up. Broken promises and a broken economy, that’s all we get from Labour.

The Conservatives are different. We want to help people get into work because we realise how important jobs are for people. The Conservatives have the policies to bring new jobs, help the unemployed retrain, and tackle Labour’s debt mountain that threatens to hamper investment.

So we will provide tax breaks for new companies who provide new jobs. We will free up credit to help businesses. And we have a radical welfare plan that will help people who are out of work to get back into employment by providing the individual support they need, as well as providing incentives for providers who can help those in the most difficult circumstances get back into work.

This sounds like a tough message – as if we are forcing people to work. But in reality there is nothing compassionate about the current situation where people are left isolated outside society. We need to integrate people into work, support them, and help them. Most people don’t want to be on benefits, but the current system forces them there and then abandons them. That’s not progressive, and it’s not what the people of Glasgow North East need.

These are the Conservative plans to get Glasgow working again. But the only way that can happen is if you vote for the Conservatives at this by-election, and at the upcoming General Election. Only Labour or the Conservatives can become the next Government, and therefore the choice is between this failing Labour Government, or a fresh government, with real ideas to tackle the jobs crisis and recession, led by David Cameron.

David Kerr

Five months ago when Michael Martin resigned there was a more local issue dominating the news in this constituency. School closures.

Today schools are back on the agenda. The SNP has dug up papers, produced last week by the council showing how many teaching posts Labour have cut over the summer months.

The figures, tucked away in a staffing report show that since June Glasgow's Labour council has let an astonishing 150 teaching posts go.

Even more astonishing, when I looked back at the figures for last September they show that Labour have let over 300 teaching posts go in the last 12 months.

In the summer Glasgow's Labour council shut five local primaries in this constituency over the wishes of the community. Holding off on the by-election, even voting against it in Westminster, might have helped Labour get the issue out of the papers but as I have met parents from those five schools through this campaign it is clear they have not forgotten Labour's betrayal. The loss of 300 teaching posts, that could have been used to cut class sizes - starting in Glasgow North East - is a further sign that Labour's commitment to education in this city is not what it should be.

Labour have no excuses here - Glasgow's Labour council receives more money from the SNP for every resident than any other mainland council, but it spends less of it's money on education than any of Scotland's other 31 councils. Labour cannot escape that fact.

This morning I will join Nicola Sturgeon at the site of one of those schools with local parents. Their concerns have not gone away and nor has their fighting spirit. Their children now have a difficult and dangerous walk to school and this morning those parents will be highlighting those concerns.

My commitment to the parents, children and teachers of this constituency is that if elected on Thursday I will not keep quiet while Labour shut schools, cut teachers and increase class sizes. Labour may not be spending the money Glasgow receives on Glasgow North East's priorities, but the priorities of constituents will be my priorities if I am given the honour of representing this constituency. I will take the fight to the City Chambers and I will stand up for parents when Labour rips them off.

Eileen Baxendale

Yesterday I was joined by Nick Clegg and Tavish Scott on the campaign trail.

We were campaigning at the ASDA in Robroyston where we heard how local people are suffering as a result of Labour’s recession.

It is this issue that has dominated this by-election and it is the concern that people have raised with me most often on the doorsteps.

People in Glasgow North East are looking for something different in this by-election. They are fed-up being overlooked by a tired old Labour party.

People in this area want their new politician to hit the ground running with fresh ideas, working hard to create jobs and put more money back into hard working people's pockets.

Liberal Democrats are the only party that are offering new ideas and new hope for Glasgow North East. We are Scotland's second largest party at Westminster and we are the real alternative for local people.

One of the most worrying aspects of Labour’s recession is that it risks leaving the poisonous legacy of a jobless generation.

Instead of pouring money into the ineffective VAT cut, Liberal Democrats have called for a paid internship scheme for our young people.

We want our young people to not go more than three months without a right of access to a place in work, training or education.

Rather than allowing someone to sit at home on benefits, young people would gain invaluable skills and experience in an actual workplace.

This is a win-win situation for both employers and those looking for work. It means that when we do finally come out of this recession our young people will have gained essential work experience.

Liberal Democrats are the only party with the practical ideas offering hope to people in Glasgow North East who are struggling through Labour’s recession.

Willie Bain

Polling day is just two days away, and my campaign is gearing up for a final push to persuade local people that I will work hard for everyone here if they choose me to represent them.

I will continue to disregard the speculation and bookmakers' predictions about how this by-election will end - it will be a close battle and I am fighting for every vote. The vast majority of people have not yet cast their vote and I want to talk to as many of them as possible.

My focus over the next few days will be to encourage my neighbours and others who live in the constituency to make that trip to the polling station, because I want to see a good turn-out.

What drives me is the chance to make the area where I grew up and still live today a better and fairer place to be. I will fight for jobs and more opportunities for young people, and that is the message I took to John Wheatley College today as I met with staff and students at the fantastic new campus on Haghill Road.

Tackling crime, and in particular knife crime, is also one of my priorities. I welcomed Shadow Justice Secretary Richard Baker to the constituency today and I am pleased that he backs my 'carry a knife, go to jail' campaign. We need a stronger deterrent to stop people carrying a blade and using weapons to attack people.

As polling day gets closer, I hope I have worked hard enough to convince people in my area to put their trust in me - but we are still 48 hours away from polling and there are thousands of people still to speak to.

Willie Bain
Labour's by-election candidate

Polls close, of course, in less than fifty hours. Labour are posting frequently, but saying very little: most of their posts have been anodyne. The SNP has gone in heavily and hit hard at the plan to axe the East Coast services to Glasgow, and the school closures. The other parties, when they criticise anyone, appear to be criticising Labour, and in particular, 'Labour's recession'.

So what we need in the next day is, to my mind, two-fold: we need a Labour post defending itself against the attacks they've been hit with - the SNP responded to criticisms regarding GARL and defended itself against them, remember, so it is fundamentally in Labour's interest to justify its own position (a point left undealt with is a point still standing); by contrast, we need a positive SNP post: we've heard enough reasons not to vote Labour, but the other parties are supplying them as well. Consequently, it is self-defeating to stay on the attack line as there is more than one anti-Labour option, and the vote could be split amongst them, allowing Labour in again.

With the attacks focused on Labour, and no sign as yet of Labour responding to them, the floor is open to David Kerr to supply positive reasons to vote for him: the others aren't attacking him at this time and a positive approach would present something distinctive. It's not enough to simply not be Labour: David Kerr is one of twelve candidates who are not Labour so he needs to move to the stage which completes the argument.

The Negative-o-meter: 7-8 November

David Kerr

As the by-election enters its final lap the SNP campaign is really closing the gap on Labour and today's revelations that the Labour Government is to axe rail services between Glasgow and Kings Cross have exposed the hypocrisy of Labour's campaign over the airport rail link.

Reports here, show that the London Labour government is planning to axe services on the east coast between Glasgow Central and London.

After weeks of campaigning over 1 mile of track, Labour are now cutting off a 500 mile service - one of the main routes bringing business, tourists and jobs from London into the city.

This decision shows where their priorities really lie and is yet another example of Labour neglecting Glasgow North East. After 74 years it's time to end this neglect. Only a vote for the SNP can stop London Labour in their tracks and deliver the best services for Glaswegians.

This revelation also shows that it is the SNP that is really investing in rail services for Glasgow with a £1 billion investment package to cut journey times between Glasgow and Edinburgh to 35 minutes, as well as the Glasgow-Paisley improvements, and improvements to Dalmarnock station – while all the time Labour are cutting services.

Labour are treating the people of Glasgow shamefully. They have presided over 74 years of decline in this constituency and I won't, the SNP won't, and certainly the people of Glasgow North-East won't put up with it anymore.

On a lighter note, I was joined by SNP activists, local residents and athletes from Glasgow's international community for a fun run this morning in aid of the Ruchazie Family Centre. It's a great local project that I was pleased to support.

Off to campaign with Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon for the rest of the day. More updates later...

David Kerr

Today is Remembrance Sunday and the SNP campaign will join people across the country as we take time to remember all those who have made the ultimate sacrifice in our name and to stand in solidarity with our veterans and those who currently serve in our armed forces.

I have spoken to many people in this campaign who have served themselves or whose children are serving at the present time in Afghanistan.

It will be a particularly poignant day for our service men and women on the frontline and the members of the Black Watch who yesterday returned to Scotland and to their families. I will be attending the service at Colston Milton Parish Church to pay my respects and my thoughts today will be with our brave forces and with those who went before them.

Willie Bain

Today is a sobering and important day as we remember those who have made the ultimate sacrifice for our country.

The service, dedication and professionalism of our armed forces should stop us in our tracks every day, not just once a year.

My thoughts and prayers are with all our brave soldiers serving around the world, their families at home, and all those who remember their loved ones.

As a mark of respect to those who have fallen, we suspended our campaigning for this morning, and will do so again at on Wednesday, at the eleventh hour of the eleventh day.

Willie Bain
Labour's candidate in Glasgow North East

So, three posts, two of which are Remembrance Sunday based and handled in a neutral, dignified way by both candidates. The David Kerr post on transport, however, goes on the attack - possibly a chance to go on the offensive after being having to respond to the GARL issue for so long. There is some analysis of positive SNP proposals, but the aim of the post is to attack. On the one hand, Labour had this coming given their campaign strategy and the timing of this news, but on the other hand, it's still negative and as such, it's still rather exasperating: it may be difficult to put the contents of this post in a positive tone but I don't think it's altogether impossible.

One wider point: on GARL, SNP supporters and representatives weren't slow to defend and justify the decision to put the Glasgow Airport Rail Link on hold. But on the plan to cut the East Coast Main Line services to Glasgow, the only comments have been from the press, Passenger Focus and from the SNP. Needless to say, it's all been negative. I'm not seeking to slag Labour off here, I merely think that it would be in their interest for Willie Bain to put his head above the parapet on this issue and tell us what he thinks about the proposal. Let's see if he does, and what he says. I look forward to colouring that post!

It's only bad if someone else does it, Part 5,904

From today's Herald:

Direct train services between Glasgow and London on the troubled East Coast Main Line are to be axed under a major recasting of the route’s timetable being discussed by the Government and rail industry, The Herald can reveal.

The changes on the arterial route, one of two connecting Scotland to England, will see trains that currently run from King’s Cross up the east coast to Glasgow stop at Edinburgh from December 2010.

Passenger Focus, the statutory watchdog, said yesterday it was “seeking reassurances” that another operator would step in to deliver direct services from Glasgow to the north of England, warning that key routes to destinations such as Newcastle, York and Doncaster could be affected.

There were unconfirmed suggestions Arriva Cross Country could take up the slack under the new timetable by extending the service it operated from Glasgow along part of the East Coast Main Line as far as York. That would only leave destinations in the south-east of England without a direct connection to Glasgow.

John Mason, the SNP MP for Glasgow East, said the changes revealed Labour’s “hypocrisy” on rail following criticism this week of the SNP’s decision to scrap the Glasgow Airport Rail Link. He added: “These plans, which have been made without any consultation, are a serious mistake and must be stopped in their tracks.”

James King, Scottish board member of Passenger Focus, said: “Withdrawing these services is only acceptable if another operator can be found to provide connectivity between Glasgow and the north-east of England as far as York. We would want to be reassured that another operator can pick up the slack.”

I'm not going to add to John Mason's point of the double standards at work here (and at least the SNP have merely put on hold a plan that was yet to come be implemented, whilst Labour are considering going so far as to axe existing services), save to note that the final decision rests with Lord Adonis, who has been on the campaign trail this week. I bet he waits until after Thursday to make his choice.

The Negative-o-meter: 5-6 November

In the week running up to the Glasgow By-Election, and to analyse in greater detail accusations of negativity, I thought I'd look at the candidates' pieces for The Steamie, and flag up the positive and negative comments. The positive shall be marked in green, and the negative in red. Relatively neutral comments (or ambiguous points which could be positive or negative depending on how you look at it), agenda points and party-based fluff will be left alone. I like to think my readers are a pretty sharp bunch: you can interpret the situation as you wish.

Willie Bain

I'm pleased to be taking part in this great idea by The Steamie to get people engaged with this by-election online.

Although I know not everyone uses the internet to access their news - I know lots of Glaswegians who are increasingly using it to find out what's going on and keep in touch with friends and family. I hope that by writing on here that I can help some of them understand more about me and my plans.

Despite a late night in the Newsnight studio I'm keen to hit the ground running this morning - talking to voters and hearing their concerns. I've lived in this area all my life - I think I'm the only candidate that can (honestly!) say that. I'm not a politician and I've never stood for election before but I'm proud of this area and I want to do my best for it.

The issue that people constantly raise with me on the door is their anger at the way the SNP is ripping off our city. Despite the SNP's budget going up by £600m this year they are giving extra money to some projects - but shortchanging Glasgow. It's amazing how many times people raise this when you speak to them. So I'm going out and about in the constituency today - knocking of people's doors and letting them know who I am and what I believe in.

I'm also meeeting with Andrew Adonis to tell him about the importance of good transport links to the Glasgow economy and the shockingly short-sighted decision of the SNP to cancel the airport rail link at a cost of 1000 jobs.

The other issue that people keep raising with me is about the SNP candidate fibbing about where he was born. Look, at the end of the day the real issue in this story is about trust. People's trust in politics is at an all time low. We have to start trying to restore that trust and that starts with people being able to believe the people that seek to represent them.

I've been clear with people what my top priorities are:

* stopping the SNP ripping off Galsgow [sic] and dishing out the money elsewhere
* cracking down on crime and anti-social behaviour - I've been running a carry a knife go to jail petition to get automatic jail sentences for knife criminals
* helping glasgow pensioners through tough times and fighting to protect jobs
* campaigning for better shops, better homes, and better buses

Thanks to everyone who is supporting me in this campaign. If you want to get in touch with me then you can email me at willie@williebain.com.

Best wishes

Willie Bain
Labour's candidate for Glasgow North East

Ruth Davidson

Well done the Steamie for coming up with this idea. I’ve been blogging on this campaign for sometime and I’m glad now the other candidates won’t be able to run away when I ask them a question!

During the five months that this campaign has been running it has become clear that the issues in Glasgow North East are not that different from those across Britain. People are worried about their jobs, worried about Labour's recession, worried about public services, and worried about crime.

MP's from all parties have betrayed the trust that the public had placed in them. That is why David Cameron apologised as soon as the details of MP's expenses claims came out, because it was wrong and the people of Britain deserved an apology. It was then that he said he wanted a new type of politics - which was when I decided I should put myself forward as a candidate. I am not a career politician, but I do believe that politics needs new people to get involved, get stuck in, and try and change things for the better. As candidates we all need to work to restore the public’s trust in politics.

That is why the very first thing I did following selection was to promise to run a clean campaign - which I invited all the other candidates to join. I have kept to that - the Conservatives won’t use personal attacks in order to get votes. That is why I have pledged to be open about my expenses if elected. Simple things, not exploiting expenses, discussing the issues not the personalities, but I think that they help people to believe I will keep my word if elected.

David Cameron and the Conservative Party believe the same thing. That is why we have been honest about the problems with the public finances. Instead of pretending nothing needed done, the Conservatives have told the truth that there will have to be savings in Government spending. We don't want to reduce spending, but we have to be realistic and tell people the harsh truth that Labour have spent all the money – and it is up to the next Government to repair the damage.

That’s why in the Scottish Parliament we have identified ¼ billion pounds worth of savings. Take Scottish Water out of public ownership, stop this nonsense of free prescriptions and free school meals for people who can afford to pay. Some things in life are not free – we have to accept that, especially in this current climate.

This election is about which party can bring the change that is needed to Glasgow North East, and to Britain. The Conservatives have the policies that will create jobs, repair the public finances, and help to fix our broken society. Most of all, we are the party that will be open and honest with the public – that’s what is needed to help rebuild trust in politics.

David Kerr

Welcome to the Steamie's by-election coverage. It's great to be taking part in this new way of covering a by-election, putting my campaign direct to you the voters.

In the next few days I’ll use this blog to tell you about some of the amazing people and inspiring projects I have met and seen in the constituency and the kind of MP I will be if the people in Glasgow North East vote for me.

Five months after Michael Martin resigned we are now into the last seven days of the campaign and it's turning out to be closer than many people thought. Despite the lengthy delay voters haven’t forgotten the expenses scandal that caused the by-election or the five school closures in the constituency that left Labour so scared the vote was delayed for five months.

Those issues have many people, who had always voted Labour, questioning the party they have supported and looking toward the SNP.

I'll be out campaigning today with John Mason MP, in Carntyne where Glasgow East meets Glasgow North East.

John's political earthquake demonstrates the difference an SNP MP can make. When it came to school closures – Labour didn’t dare put forward any closures in John’s constituency but they took people in Glasgow North East for granted.

Residents of Glasgow East had been let down by their MP - with no constituency office and no one to vote for their interests. John has set a new standard for Glasgow MPs - accessible, available and putting his constituents first.

In Glasgow North East constituents have been in the same position - with no office for the local MP in the constituency and decades of being taken for granted by Labour in Westminster and in the City Chambers.

People in Glasgow North East deserve the same level of representation their fellow East Enders have in the neighbouring constituency. This constituency deserves an MP whose priorities will be constituents priorities and that’s what I will deliver if elected next week.

Eileen Baxendale

I think this is a great idea from the Steamie. I would love to see more newspapers and media outlets adopt innovative approaches to help get more people engaged in politics.

I want to say right from the start that I think it was simply outrageous that the Labour party have allowed the people in Glasgow North East to go without an MP for so long, well over 125 days now. This just shows that the Labour Government has lost touch with the people it serves.

Since this campaign kicked off all those weeks ago, I have been working hard, knocking on doors and listening to people right across the constituency.

The message that I am getting again and again is that people are fed up being overlooked and ignored and that they want change. They want their politician’s focus to be on sorting the economy, creating more local jobs and tackling local crime.

I believe that it is Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats that have the policies and ideas to make a real difference on these issues.

To really tackle these problems we need more than just sensationalist, headline grabbing soundbites. We need a new approach.

On the economy and banking, it is Vince Cable that has been the voice of reasoned authority over recent months. It was he who first warned about the impending economic collapse. Labour were too slow to act and the Tories were simply nowhere on sorting out the economy.

On tackling crime and creating jobs, Liberal Democrats believe that this is best done at a local level. We are committed to putting the heart back into our communities and giving local people a greater say over their own affairs.

Locking everyone up and sending our young people to prison is not the best way to tackle crime and anti-social behaviour. We need more community based initiatives that tackle the root causes of why young people in our society get involved in crime in the fist place.

Labour’s recession has led to tough times for all of us. The Liberal Democrats want to sort out the tax system to give a boost to those on low and middle incomes. We want to raise the income tax threshold so those on less than £10,000 a year don’t pay tax. This would put around £700 a year back into the pockets of those on low and middle incomes.

It is the Liberal Democrats who are the only party offering real progressive change to our society. Unlike the SNP it is the Liberal Democrats who can make a real difference at Westminster and stand up for the people of Glasgow North East.

Willie Bain

Just back from the STV studios where the four main candidates cross–examined ourselves in heated spirits.

In a slightly peculiar manoeuvre, the SNP man decided to throw a two-pound coin at me. I was thinking a question might be more likely, but there you go.

Amazingly, he vigorously defended the decision to scrap the airport rail link and the loss of up to 1,300 jobs. I thought he’d want to stand up for Glasgow, but he seems he wants to be Salmond’s man in Springburn.

Earlier, I met with Andrew Adonis, the Secretary of State for Transport, to discuss the importance of good transport links to and from Glasgow. He got the train from the centre of town up to Springburn.

Like me, he was angered by the SNP’s decision to cancel the rail link. If elected I will do all I can to fight the SNP’s decision and stop them ripping of Glasgow in the future. I oppose the cuts in housing and regeneration in the SNP’s draft budget for next year and I believe that Glasgow should get a metropolitan supplement, as Edinburgh does and is proposed for Aberdeen. The SNP cannot continue to rip off Glasgow. It isn’t a by-election slogan as the SNP try to brush it off: it is a tragedy for our city.

Harriet Harman also joined the campaign this evening and was out knocking on doors with me – first with the cameras, and then just the two of us later on. We stopped for a quick coffee in Dennistoun.

It really was all hands on deck today. Tomorrow I’ll be out and about again from first thing to late.

David Kerr

Less than a week to go and the SNP campaign is in full swing.

SNP activists are out across the constituency - with more coming to join the campaign this weekend - including a visit from the Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon.

Today I'll be joined on the campaign trail by Education Secretary Fiona Hyslop to meet some of the young people that are benefiting from the SNP's investment in education in this constituency.

A few weeks ago we visited Glasgow North College and today we'll be heading to John Wheatley's campus. These colleges have received record levels of investment from the SNP and with help from the Scottish Government are providing extra places to support people during the recession.

That's the kind of investment we need to bring opportunities to this constituency, to ensure a bright future for our young people.

There's another sign of the SNP's commitment to Glasgow today. In the face of serious budget cuts from Labour in London the SNP has had to take some tough decisions over how we allocate Scotland's budget. I'm proud of the fact that the SNP's priorities are health, education and making our communities safer.

Today Nicola Sturgeon will announce the next step toward a new £840 million Southern General - built entirely with public funds - as the contracts are signed. Alongside it will be a new children's hospital for Glasgow.

That's the kind of investment I want to see across the city - and that's the kind of investment the SNP will continue to put into Glasgow.

David Doherty

Over the last few years, Glasgow has become one of the Greenest parts of Scotland, and Glasgow North East is no exception.

Glaswegians are represented at Holyrood by Patrick Harvie MSP, and the city has returned five Green Councillors, one of whom, my colleague Kieran Wild, represents Canal Ward here in Glasgow North East.

In the Euro-elections Greens came third in Glasgow North East, ahead of the Conservatives and the Lib Dems, although it'd be dishonest to put out a leaflet saying "only Greens can win here".

It's not hard to see why Glasgow's increasingly backing the Greens. Our major campaign at Holyrood over the last year has been to try and insulate all of Scotland's homes, cutting bills, boosting jobs, tackling fuel poverty and beating climate change all in one go. As a volunteer I'm on the board of a building renovation charity, and I'm only too aware of the problems in this area across the city. The parties who've governed Glasgow, locally and nationally, should be ashamed of themselves for letting people continue to suffer in damp, unhealthy and expensive homes.

What's more, Labour and the SNP may be bickering about GARL, but only the Greens have consistently opposed the M74 currently being bulldozed through the South East of the City. We could have had Crossrail built by now for a fraction of the cost of this motorway, but sadly only Greens continue to make that case.

Finally, Glasgow's economy has taken a serious blow from the credit crunch and the recession, and people are understandably reluctant to back any of the parties who celebrated the risk-takers, backed the deregulators and handed over vast amounts of our money to the bankers. Pretending it all never happened isn't a long-term response to this crisis, nor is it a sustainable one.

So, let me be the first candidate to admit this election isn't in the bag for us, but we are part of the world's fastest-growing political movement, and we have confounded the naysayers who said we couldn't get MSPs, MEPs or Councillors elected. Sometime soon I'm confident we'll make that Westminster breakthrough, and people in Glasgow North East can be the first to deliver that radical change.

Willie Bain

I was delighted to welcome the Prime Minister to the constituency this afternoon.

Gordon and I visited North Glasgow College – a shining example of what Labour has achieved in the area. I’m proud that Gordon was so impressed with the building, and the opportunities that the college provides for people in my area.

It’s sad that some people want to talk down our community, but I think the college is a great example of the changes I have seen in my life here.

I’ve put some more information up on my website. The man in the photo with the Prime Minister is my dad (also Willie). He was really proud to meet the Prime Minister.

It was taken inside our campaign centre, which is in the old college building over the road from the new one. The building was opened by a former in 1909 by Earl Rosebery who was Prime Minister in the 1890s. The foyer contains a moving and sobering war memorial to the college students who died in the First World War.

So, after Days 1 and 2 of this endeavour, that's where we are:

Three posts by Willie Bain, one of which laden with ambiguous comments and innuendo which I can't properly brand as either positive or negative, one of which was basically a hatchet job, and the third fairly anodyne;

Two posts by David Kerr, one of which offering a point/counterpoint format - a negative point balanced by a contrasting positive one - followed by one that was mostly good news;

One post by Ruth Davidson, which was generally positive with the occasional dig;

One post by Eileen Baxendale, which was broadly positive with slightly more frequent digs;

And one rather bleak post by David Doherty, which seemed to identify a number of key problems but, to me, looked light on actual solutions.

Let's now see what the weekend brings...

Mev, p'tahk!

Well, this has got me off my sick bed: nominations for the Glasgow NE By-Election have closed and we have learned that Mev Brown is on the candidates' list. Here's his political CV up to now:

5 May 2005 - Westminster Election. Tory Candidate in Edinburgh East. He came fourth out of eight, with 4,093 votes (10.31%).

29 September 2005 - Livingston By-Election. Independent candidate. He came eighth out of ten, with 108 votes (0.37%).

10 November 2005 - Murrayfield By-Election (City of Edinburgh Council). UKIP candidate. He came eighth out of eight, behind even the Liberal candidate - and I mean Liberal Party candidate , as they had a candidate besides the LibDem - with just four votes (0.2%)

27 April 2006 - Moray By-Election. NHSFirst candidate. He came fifth out of fifth with a slightly more respectable 493 (1.8%) votes.

3 May 2007 - Holyrood Election. #1 on the NHS First List - having agreed an electoral tie-up with Scottish Voice which saw him drop his plan to stand in Lothian. They came thirteenth out of sixteen, with 1,955 votes (0.69%). He also stood in Airdrie & Shotts, where he came fifth out of five with 970 votes (3.57%).

4 June 2009 - European Election. #3 on the Jury Team List in Scotland. They came thirteenth out of thirteen with 6,257 votes (0.57%).

And that list doesn't convey the alleged attempted hook-up with the SSCUP (they knocked him back), his intervention on the scotsman.com comments section, his presence on policing forums asking for policies, the presence of his party mildly pissing off a genuine health campaigner whose candidacy for Coatbridge had been declared about a year in advance of the election, and two differing biography pages on his websites.

So with the Jury Team backing John Smeaton this time, Mev begins another stage in his quixotic journey through the footnotes of electoral history.

Incidentally, mev is Klingon for 'stop'. I'm not sure whether I want him to or not...

In which Yousuf has a hissy fit

And I don't ever want to hear people like Will or others complain that Labour are negative when their campaign strategy has no positive reason to vote SNP at all.

Thus spake Yousuf Hamid, Labour activist, general good egg, and usually quite smart. Smarter than this, anyway.

Because here's the thing, as his party colleague Kez Dugdale said this week:

In fact, most of the leaflet is spent defending the SNP Government - talking about their justice and policing policies.

So in his rush for the high horse, Yousuf clearly hasn't been paying attention to what's actually going on around him. And the mad part is this: the SNP have been in Government for two and a half years - a full decade less than Labour - and yet has a record it feels confident that it can stand on. Indeed, the press release unveiling David Kerr is pretty positive in tone. So if Yousuf wants a positive reason to vote SNP, here's one of many: SNP MPs will do whatever they can to prevent any Government of any hue cutting the Scottish Budget and putting those benefits and that progress at risk. Labour - and Tory - MPs will spend this Parliament and the next one attempting to explain why their ham-fisted economic policies and scramble to defend bankers should jeopardise measures designed to ease the lives of ordinary, hard-pressed men, women and children.

But Labour are reduced to defending the indefensible and waving the Tory stick about. My, how Yousuf has grasped it!

Of course, if Labour's record were that good, we'd be hearing all about it, I'm sure. If what Yousuf says about the SNP not offering positive reasons to vote were right, there wouldn't be people in Glasgow North East - like the first voter David Kerr spoke to on the campaign trail - who have decided to vote for the SNP for the first time next month.

Instead, we have that old chestnut: "Vote SNP, Get Tory". It's nothing less than a lie: this is a By-Election and the loss of Glasgow North East will not even cost Gordon Brown his majority, let alone put David Cameron into Downing Street. The only David that could gain from an SNP vote is David Kerr. I assume that Yousuf knows this, but has chosen to peddle the fib anyway.

And of course, this leaflet comes in the week when the SNP announce a plan to reverse one of the Tories' most devastating policies - which Labour did nothing to counter-act - in Right to Buy: a savage embodiment of the "Me first!" culture that Thatcher promoted, in which people who benefited from affordable, social housing have been permitted to snatch that right away from others who might need it, increasing the snobbish stigma around rented properties, making affordable housing for others harder to get, and forcing them to take their chances in the private sector. Getting rid of that disgusting pillar of the Society of the Self is the single most progressive thing to happen in any part of the UK since the creation of the National Health Service. And it's been done by an SNP Government.

So when Yousuf whines that protecting affordable social housing isn't progressive - he's wrong.

When he says that a vote for David Kerr is a vote for David Cameron - he's wrong.

When he says that the SNP offer no positive reason to vote for them - he's wrong.

When he says that it's perfectly all right for Labour (and himself) to mislead people in their campaign of spite and negativity, as opposed to offering a defence of their twelve years in office, or some sort of hope for the future - he's wrong.

And if he thinks that Labour losing votes, losing seats and losing power is the fault of anyone other than the Labour Party, for taking so many people for granted and letting so many people down, people that Labour was founded to look out for - then he is very much wrong!

And with all that misinformation, this high horse that he's found? Well, it turns out it's an ass.

That Was The Week That Was

This has not been a good week for the mainstream political parties.

On the one hand, the SNP finally have a candidate for Glasgow North East - and a fairly sharp one at that. Sadly, it's been a tougher road than we might have expected: the presumptive candidate didn't apply, the initial candidate withdrew, and so David Kerr, having already made an attempt to secure the selection, will now be on the ballot paper. Now, having a candidate is a good thing, and having a smart candidate like David Kerr is even better, but we're now at the stage of the press raking through everything that David Kerr has ever said or done. Frankly, I'm expecting headlines such as "Kerr put worm in Sarah Wallace's hair in Primary 1" next week. Interestingly, Willie Bain - Kerr's Labour countrerpart - appears to have received very little scrutiny and precious few column inches. On the one hand, he may not have to put up with tabloid muck-raking for the next few weeks. On the other hand, he's not getting any mention in the press at all. At least people will be able to match the phrases "David Kerr" and "SNP By-Election Candidate". Still, with the way the press seem to be operating this week, you can see why Grant felt it wasn't a good idea to put himself forward for nomination, and why James Dornan felt it necessary to stand down.

So the SNP can move forward from the frustrating events of the last couple of weeks. David Kerr will have to handle more journalistic egg-throwing, but 1) his name is in the papers while Willie Bain's isn't, and 2) I get the feeling that he'll withstand it, and dish it back out if need be...

For Labour, Gordon Brown has had to cope with the ghosts of Cabinets past. He's had former ministers complaining about the laddishness of his approach (here's something to think about: if a hypothetical male former minister said that an equally hypothetical female PM was 'girly', all hell would break loose, but hey, gender-based stereotyping and labels are perfectly acceptable if you're discussing men, it seems). Jacqui Smith told Iain Dale that she wanted to resign just before the G20 but was told not to (she also lamented not getting training). James Purnell's been telling the papers that he lost faith in Gordon Brown last December (that late?). Lastly, John Hutton has complained that the likely election campaign message is too crude, that while he - of course! - recognises Brown's many talents, the country as a whole doesn't, and has now jumped on the Afghanistan bandwagon (while eliding the obvious point that having been Defence Secretary until last month, it was his job to get the troops the equipment they need).

Now, this may seem like a bunch of has-beens mouthing off. Jacqui Smith complains about training - why couldn't she learn on the job like everyone else? James Purnell moans that he lost faith in the PM about a year after everyone else did but six months earlier than when he actually quit. If it was that bad, why didn't he have the cojones to go at Christmas? And John Hutton's "I'm not being funny, right, buuuut..." approach to criticising Brown is pretty shabby as well, particularly when, on the Afghan situation, he had a chance to make a difference and do the things he's now talking about, but didn't. In short, under normal circumstances, you'd expect Brown to brush this off. Blair would have. But Brown isn't Blair. This is how the Summer is going to go: more people coming out of the woodwork slagging the PM off, and just like last year, it'll be down to Sarah Brown to bail him out at Conference...

For the Tories, their European project has started badly: Edward McMillan-Scott MEP broke ranks with the rest of the party to stand for a Vice-President's post in the European Parliament, defeating official candidate Michal Kaminski of the Polish Law and Justice Party (part of the Tories' new ECR Group) in the process. By way of compensation, Kaminski has been appointed Leader of the Group, and now the press are going through his previous pronouncements as well - use of homophobic language, and today, accusations of anti-Semitism. When the Tories are trying to look human, they don't need this.

On the other hand, it is, after all the European Parliament and few people care about the niceties of European group formations, or, for that matter, the European dimension. Who refused to vote Tory because they were quitting the (then) EPP-ED Group? Did anyone in the UK vote (or not vote) Green because of Daniel Cohn-Bendit, for example? Have many people in the UK heard of Martin Schulz? I doubt it. So the story will pass, and the fact that today's allegations were deep in the middle of the paper suggest that they'll have limited impact. Kaminski will occasionally be used (by Labour) for egg-throwing purposes. Besides, out of 45 million eligible voters, barely a third bothered to show up for the Euro Elections. And if Kaminski is a vote loser, then the Tories only have 4,198,394 votes to lose in European terms. And most of them probably agree with Kaminski anyway...

Finally, the LibDems. They made a good point on the lack of support being offered to frontline troops in Afghanistan. The problem is, the point was too good, and Third Party Syndrome kicked in. Now everyone wants more helicopters for the troops but no one remembers who suggested it, just as on the Gurkhas, the LibDems were the ones whose motion won a parliamentary vote, but Joanna Lumley took the credit for the eventual success. This is a problem: when the have a bad idea, they get the piss ripped out of them in ways that doesn't happen to the others. When the have a good one, everyone else nicks it and no one remembers who thought of it in the first place. At least, for the others, the problems are (relatively) transient. For the LibDems, they're pretty much existential. It'll take PR for the LibDems to be considered seriously, but it's only the LibDems who are proposing PR, and not Labour or the Tories...

Filling a gap

Much has already been said about the decision of Grant Thoms not to fight the Glasgow North East By-Election, and most of it seems to revolve around his blog: the conventional wisdom has it that despite having taken the site down, others have got hold of the posts and some of the more forthright views would get repeated. Well, traduced.

By co-incidence, Stephen has read this post by Charlotte Gore about why her being a blogger would rule her out as an effective PPC.

To be honest, I disagree. After all, with only limited print resources (money, paper and ink are all finite) and no local media access (save the local papers' letters page or maybe 2 seconds on regional news), a blog does give candidates a chance to get the message out. Certainly, Kez started blogging in the run-up to the 2007 election; Christina McKelvie had a blog; Chris Stephens still blogs occasionally; Julie McAnulty's blog was doubtless a useful tool in her campaign as an Independent back in 2007; and in the run-up to this month's Euro election, Labour's Kirsty Connell was blogging fairly routinely. Meanwhile, Richard Thomson may be the SNP PPC in Gordon, but his blog goes from strength to strength. And of course, Stephen's role in the Scottish blogstablishment may never have come about had he not been the PPC in Linlithgow & East Falkirk in 2005.

So a blog has its advantages for your campaign, and as the battle in each constituency is effectively one micro-campaign in a network of such contests up and down the country, perhaps being a blogger of some note may generate a little extra media interest in the seat in question, but not enough to be a major liability: if an SNP blogger is a candidate in the next Westminster election, they'll be one of 59. Labour and the LibDems will have 631 candidates, so being a blogging PPC for one of those parties is to be a drop in the ocean. While a Tory blogging candidate will be one of 649 (albeit with 18 fighting under the UCUNF banner). 650 if they decide to challenge John Bercow. So a blog offers PPCs an advantage, gives perhaps a little extra coverage to their local campaign, but is ultimately one contest of many so there's limited scope for scrutiny.

Which brings me back to Grant.

The Glasgow North East By-Election is due very soon, and the candidates will be fighting in that and not necessarily in a Westminster General Election. Indeed the maximum number of campaigns taking place concurrently could, at the moment, be no higher than three: Glasgow NE, Norwich North, and potentially Livingston. More than 600 battles in a normal Westminster election will have been condensed and concentrated into no more than three. Where the Scottish media is concerned, no more than two of those will matter.

That changes the game.

Digging through everything Grant has ever said to anyone at any time since primary school might seem pointless when he's one of 59. When he's one of two, or on his own, everything becomes fair game for his opponents. Moves that may seem excessive or unacceptable in a General Election become par for the course in a By-Election. Conversely, things that would never have seen the light of day in a General become front page news for days in a By-Election: for example, who would have given a shit about where Margaret Curran lived had her candidacy for Glasgow East been in a General Election?

In short, Grant probably had to do what he's done. But there's something else.

I'm speculating wildly here, and I apologise profusely in advance if I am wide of the mark, but what if Grant, who has done and is continuing to do a good deal for the SNP's LGBT wing, Out for Independence (this is the primary reason that I am gutted for his withdrawl - not only would it have been a good thing for the movement for him to fly the flag, but I can tell you now that he's a sharp political operator and would once again make an A1 candidate and damn good constituency Parliamentarian), feared a Bermondsey-style campaign? As I said, things that are unacceptable in a General Election (such as homophobic abuse, like that meted out by the Liberal campaign regarding then Labour candidate Peter Tatchell) become just a tactic in a By-Election. Similarly, things that no one would surely pay all that much attention to (like, for instance, a candidate's sexuality) become massive news. Did Grant see the writing on the wall?

After all, every Party has its own heroes and villains where the LGBT community is concerned: Labour has the likes of Peter Mandelson and Stephen Twigg on one hand, and Michael McMahon and Jim Dobbin on the other; the Tories have Iain Dale and Alan Duncan on one side against Anne Widdecombe and, I daresay, a higher percentage of the membership than the leadership would like. Even the LibDems have Simon Hughes on one side, and, err, Simon Hughes' By-Election campaign team (oh, the irony in their slogan, "The Straight Choice") on the other. For the SNP, it's a case of Grant, among many others, against the likes of Brian Souter. Would that be commented on? Of course it would.

And would Grant's own life be commented on? Sadly, that too is likely. And in a city led by Stephen Purcell, it would be rank hypocrisy. But unfortunately, I still think we'd see it.

Like being a blogger, we may still at a stage where being openly gay or bisexual is fine when you're one candidate of many, but problematic when you're one of one.

And, if I'm right, I guess the challenge to that situation will have to come another time.

Devine Retribution?

It looks like the Sunday Herald's penchant for political hatchet jobs has rather neatly combined with the Telegraph's political reporting being sub-contracted to the Witchfinder General, and Jim Devine, MP for Livingston, has been ditched by the Labour Party's NEC.

Devine's deviation was two-fold: firstly, he claimed two grand in expenses for re-wiring work done to his flat. The problem was, the company that billed him didn't exist. Devine claims that the electrician was to blame for this. It might have been possible to give him the benefit of the doubt were it not for another £2000 claim relating to 66 metres of shelving, bought from a local pub landlord. The shelving turned up not in Devine's office or home, but in the cellar of the aforementioned pub, and didn't resemble the specifications given for it. As Karen Dunbar used to say, "I smell shite!", and so did the NEC. Despite the support of his local party, Devine will now no longer be considered a Labour candidate for the next election.

It's fair to say that Robin Cook's successor, elected in the September 2005 By-Election, has taken this badly. He protests his innocence and asserts that he has been hung out to dry. He is therefore tempted to exact revenge on his party, and follow Ian Gibson by quitting, and forcing an early By-Election.

So, Labour faces contests in Glasgow North East, Norwich North, and potentially Livingston as well: the latter would be significant for the second By-Election in one Parliament. The last time this happened was Bootle, which saw By-Elections in May and November of 1990, when the winner of the first poll, Michael Carr, died just 57 days after his victory.

This might not be as bad for Labour as they think: I'd wager that Norwich North will go blue, if the Council elections this year are any indicator; Glasgow North East looks guaranteed Labour on paper, especially given the European election results showing Labour on top here, but still, with momentum behind the SNP (and against Labour), bearing the current mood in mind, and remembering that Glasgow East looked guaranteed Labour on paper, I wouldn't put any money anywhere near that By-Election.

Livingston, however, is a different kettle of fish. Angela Constance slashed the Labour majority in the 2005 Election, and now represents the Scottish Parliamentary constituency of the same name. On paper, given the present state of the parties, this looks to be a hotter prospect for the SNP, and if the two Scottish seats are ranked in priority order, Livingston surely comes first. Indeed, the SNP had a more successful result in that By-Election than in the Glasgow Cathcart By-Election for Holyrood which was held on the same day, and where it looed like victory was being handed to the SNP on a silver platter. That didn't happen, but the strong result at the other end of the M8 deflected concerned eyes from that outcome. Again, the two battlegrounds would be Glasgow and West Lothian, but a smart strategy would see the SNP aiming at the seat that gave them a better return the last time that happened.

So with progress in Livingston begetting further effort begetting further progress (and perhaps victory) for the SNP in Livingston, the Party would be looking East. That would allow Labour to look West, and avoid the humiliation of another possible political earthquake in Glasgow.

It would, therefore, be in Labour's interest for Devine to go now, and get all three By-Elections out of the way on the same day. Norwich North, and the likely Tory gain, would take the headlines, but Labour could spin this easily - anger at Ian Gibson, 'local' issues (these always gets mentioned even if they're not defined), the recent election results showing us that this isn't anything new. The SNP could well take Livingston (especially if, as is rumoured, Devine were to stand for re-election as an Independent), giving them their moment of glory but again, spinnable for Labour - the end of the late Robin Cook's personal vote, anger at Devine, 'local' issues, recent election results showing us that this isn't anything new. But Labour could also win Glasgow North East, giving them something to crow about there. All three parties can come away with something, and would be able to dismiss the other results. If I've called this correctly, everyone wins, except the LibDems.

So for Labour, the worst political aspect of this isn't necessarily the possible By-Election, merely the morass of sleaze that accompanies the expenses row, which has triggered this wave of votes. And strangely, if they fight on three fronts, they might have a better chance of victory on one of them than if they fight on only two.

If I were in Labour now, I'd be goading Devine into Stewardship of the Chiltern Hundreds, and timing every By-Election for the same day. It's their way out of this stramash.

Yes, I know, I'm a cynical bastard, but when an MP claims £2000 for seemingly non-existent shelves, and £2000 for a payment to a non-existent contractor, can you blame me?

Out of the Frying Pan

Since I came to this House 30 years ago, I have always felt that the House is at its best when it is united. In order that unity can be maintained, I have decided that I will relinquish the office of Speaker on Sunday 21 June. This will allow the House to proceed to elect a new Speaker on Monday 22 June. That is all I have to say on this matter.

And with those terse words, one can of worms was placed in the bin, to be replaced with two more.

The first is who will replace him as Speaker - and who would want to. We have, at this stage, only one declared candidate, and so he is, by default, the frontrunner: Sir Alan Beith, LibDem MP for Berwick-upon-Tweed. He is the bookies' second favourite, at 5/1. The favourite is Sir George Young, at 4/1. Vince Cable, David Davis and anne Widdecombe have all ruled themselves out. Mutterings from the Labour benches point towards Tory MP John Bercow. Mutterings from the Tory benches point towards Labour MP Frank Field. At this stage, it's far too early to say who will emerge.

The second is who will replace him as MP for Glasgow North East, with his departure from the Commons all but certain. Strictly speaking, there is no incumbent party, with the Speaker standing for re-election as an apartisan candidate, but had that not been the case, this would ordinarily be seen as a Labour fortress. Nevertheless, we have a little more knowledge about party strengths merely on the basis that, as you'd expect, the SNP haven't really been all that impressed by the convention that the Speaker isn't challenged. If you make the shaky assumption that all the people who voted for Michael Martin would have voted Labour, and that all the people who would have voted Labour voted for Michael Martin - and neither of those assumptions hold much water but we have to start from somewhere - the SNP would require a swing of 18% to win a By-Election: more than was required (and far more than was acheived) in Glenrothes, but less than what was needed and attained next to this seat in Glasgow East. On that basis, we can't yet read the tea leaves, and I don't yet envisage the European Elections shedding any light on how the By-Election would progress. I shall simply say that for the SNP, a victory would be best characterised as it was in Glasgow East - improbable but not impossible - while for Labour, victory is nothing short of an absolute must.

There's then the question of the candidacies. Conventional wisdom used to have it that Paul Martin was a shoo-in for the Labour nomination but hereditity might not go down overly well right now but combined with Margaret Curran's intention to fight Glasgow East again, it might provide a vacancy for Steven Purcell at Holyrood (might that make Frank McAveety a possible candidate?). The SNP have a PPC - Grant Thoms, the Tartan Hero - but as we know from Glasgow East, PPCs for the General Election don't necessarily fight a By-Election. However, he's in place, he's on the Party's NEC, he's a strong campaigner so you would see him as a frontrunner. All the same, these are unusual times, and the assumptions we would normally make can be called into question very easily indeed. All bets are very much off.

So, Michael Martin's exit creates two vacancies, and two elections: one winner will emerge from the benches of the House of Commons; the other winner will take a seat on them. But at this stage, we can't even say for sure who will be on either ballot paper, much less who will emerge on top.

We await with bated breath.