A marriage of convenience?

Iain Dale is hailing the electoral pact between the Conservatives and UUP. Tom Harris is sceptical, and I have to say, I see his point.

For me, it's a marriage of convenience: the UUP have had a torrid time: they were the party of Ulster in the old days, standing firm against the Republic (and Republicans). Now they are not. The were the party of Protestantism. The DUP stole those clothes. They were the party of Unionism. But they were accused of 'surrender', and the DUP moved in. But that allowed them to be the voice of the moderate, pro-Agreement Unionist. But the St. Andrews Agreement saw Ian Paisley sit with Sinn Fein in the Executive. Even during the recent problems, Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness managed to get the NI Executive working again without the need for Westminster to step in and suspend Stormont. So there's no solid foundation for the UUP to work on anymore, there are fewer supporters, and fewer members. The Tories make a nice, UK-wide sugar-daddy, with access to a massive network of activists and supporters elsewhere.

And what do the Tories get? The chance to put such a well-respected (on this side of the North Channel and Irish Sea, at least) figure as David Trimble in their Government. And extra MPs, which may come in handy, in the event of a hung Parliament or small Commons majority.

But there are risks. For the UUP, it could be the final humiliation: having lost the 'Unionist' bit of their name to the DUP, by allying with the Tories they risk losing the 'Ulster' bit as well. This could push them further into the wilderness.

And for the Tories, it may not come off. What if Sylvia Hermon were to lose North Down? What if the UUP were to get badly hit in a subsequent election, at any level? After the mockery the Tories had to endure at being wiped out in Scotland and Wales, what would happen if this pact were to get wiped out in Northern Ireland? They'd be the only party to stand in all four nations, but only a credible force in one of them. For a Unionist party, how embarrassing would that be?

Besides, the Governmental role might not be all that great. The logical choice for a UUP Cabinet post would be Northern Ireland Secretary - from the idea that a Scottish MP makes the best Scotland Secretary and a Welsh MP the best Wales Secretary. Now the state of the Tory Party in those two rules out a Scotland Office staffed by Scots - the best the can manage for Scotland is David Mundell (from a shorltist of one Scottish MP on that standard) and Ben Wallace, MP for Lancaster & Wyre (though former MSP). For Wales, the "Welsh constituency" standard produces a shortlist of three MPs. The Shadow Secretary of State, Cheryl Gillan, is not one of them. So it would be pointless having a UUP Northern Ireland Secretary.

It would also be risky: more than in Scotland and Wales, the NIO has to act as an 'honest broker', a neutral mediator between the two communities. That can't be possible with a UUP Cabinet Secretary. Indeed, the whole Government is weakened on that score. Besides, if he were to take it, Northern Ireland's MPs (at least the ones who actually take their seats) would be horrified that the Secretary of State was out of their reach, in the Other Place. And if he were to get another job - for Trimble is would have to be Cabinet level - opponents could rightly ask why they had to import a politician, suggesting that there was such a paucity of talent among Conservative ranks that they had to poach a whole other party to fill the Government.

But if it works, the UUP get a new lease of life, and the Tories can claim to be the only party credible in all four nations of the UK. What a claim to make.

But what no one has said yet is this: if this works, and the UUP moving closer creates a viable setup, what of the Scottish Tories? Could they be de-coupled, and move away from the current situation to a relationship similar to the new one established over the North Channel? Could bringing Reg Empey closer move Annabel Goldie further away?

Northern Ireland

The final counts have been completed, and we are left with a result whihc provided numerous firsts:

The results (DUP 36, SF 28, UUP 18, SDLP 16, Alliance 7, PUP 1, Green 1, Independent 1) will produce an Executive, if one is formed, with a Unionist majority, in contrast to the previous 50:50 split. Ian Paisley would be First Minister, and Martin McGuinness would be his Deputy. The DUP would take a further 4 ministerial seats, Sinn Fein would take a further 3, the UUP would take 2 and the SDLP would have just one minister. The full Executive would therefore have seven Unionists and five Nationalists.

Northern Ireland has also seen its first Green MLA elected, in Brian Wilson. At this early stage, we won't know if he can repeat Robin Harper's success: Harper was of course the first elected Green parliamentarian in the UK, and the only one in Scotland until 2003, when he was joined by six others. Can Wilson follow suit? Only time will tell: at this stage we don't even know if the Assembly will even exist in April.

But the really radical first comes in South Belfast, where the Alliance Party's Anna Lo takes a seat at the expense of the UUP's Esmond Birnie. Lo is believed to be the first ethnic Chinese Parliamentarian not just in Northern Ireland or the UK, but the whole of Europe. She's also the first MLA from an ethnic minority, so Northern Ireland has stolen a march on the Scottish Parliament by two months.

The big questions now: can an Executive be formed? Will the Assembly continue to exist past April? We await the answers with bated breath.

Why the Peace Process needs to be resolved before the General Election

David Cameron took a little trip over to Northern Ireland today, to endorse the Conservatives' candidates in the Assembly Elections. The Tories are alone among the mainstream UK parties in fielding candidates in Northern Ireland. However, their success rate isn't good (mainly as their natural ground is already occupied by the UUP): in 2005, Conservatives received 0.4% of the total vote there. It makes Scotland look True Blue! And with comments like this, then perhaps you can see why. He did point out that Tory MLAs (as if there'll be any!) will designate themselves Unionist. Seeing as they're from the Conservative and Unionist Party, this makes sense.

However, he goes on to say:

"One of the reasons we are standing is to say to people in Northern Ireland politics doesn't have to be like this."

"It should be about the quality of your school, the quality of your hospitals, the choice you get in public services, supporting the rule of law, backing the free enterprise system.

If that's the case then firstly, they might want to stop being the Conservative AND UNIONIST Party. And as well as that, he's just effectively told people to vote for the Alliance Party, who designate themselves as 'Other'.

But Scottish Tories should consider this: given that he has just weighted free enterprise above the Union, has he just backed those Conservatives in Scotland who are want more powers (or even all remaining ones) being transferred to Edinburgh, in order to focus on things like a low-tax, low-spend Scottish government? Could this even be a message to the UK Conservative Party, to the effect of, 'Forget Scotland, we'll only be able to implement a Tory manifesto if England goes it alone'? Annabel Goldie might want to phone Cameron and ask him about that.

Over the water

Over the next few weeks, I'll be adding Northern Ireland to my brief, mainly as this is an important time with a major election coming up, but also because the election to the Northern Ireland Assembly will be conducted under STV, so it's required viewing for anyone seeking election to a local Council in Scotland. Obviously, there are differences (the electorates are far larger - they're the same as the Westminster Constituencies - and there are 6 MLAs per Constituency rather than 3 or 4 Councillors per ward), but the principle, especially for parties who are fielding more than one candidate in a ward, is worth looking at.

Anyway, today I'm focussing on another element that will play a part on polling day. The Northern Ireland Electoral Office reports that twenty-five different nationalities are registered to vote: nearly 2,000 Poles are on the Electoral Roll, along with 900 Portuguese and 800 Lithuanians. It's expected that 6,000 foreign nationals will vote on 7 March. Now, that's just a drop in the ocean: there are an estimated 30,000 Poles in NI, but even so, the 6,000 people from other EU countries who are signing up could have a major impact on the Election.

So you can see why in Scotland, parties are publishing leaflets in Polish. EU nationals could win (or lose) a marginal constituency for a party, and they will definitely have an effect on the Regional Vote, to say nothing of the local elections. It's a factor that not many people have paid attention to, and it could have a major effect.