Goldie Lookin' Chained

I've been sitting on that headline for more than a year now, but I could equally have called this post "What is the point Annabel Goldie?" Whatever you thought of David McLetchie, he was moderately effective and at the height of his strength succeeded in bringing down Henry McLeish. Annabel Goldie wants to prop up Jack McConnell. But that's not all...

This could have, should have, been a bonanza week for the Tories: the 300th Anniversary of the Act of Union. Instead, we had David Cameron dragging his Shadow Cabinet up in Edinburgh (did anyone spot him being mobbed by a delirious crowd as Goldie predicted, incidentally? Let me know if you spotted him, with or without groupies) and saying very little except how the Tories have been rubbish in Scotland over the past few years. Oh, and Annabel Goldie appeared briefly on Newsnight.That was it.

Think about this: you have a Party that (officially, at least, but as we know, a number of Tory figures are starting to rethink this) is so supportive of the Union that its full name is "Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party". Where have they been? What's happened is that the bulk of the pro-Union commentary this week has been left to Labour. And what they produced wasn't so much praise for the Union as a list of everything that might go wrong in an independent Scotland, their discussions motivated not by genuinely staunch Unionism but by their fear and loathing of the SNP, and the prospect of losing seats in May.

So it's no surprise that with the Tories sinking even further into insignificance than they did when they had no MPs, someone has voiced an intention to challenge Annabel Goldie. It's not Murdo Fraser. It's not Alex Johnstone. It's not Ted Brocklebank or Bill Aitken. It's Peter Lyburn. Peter Lyburn, Conservative candidate in Dunfermline West. This man must clearly be optimistic of securing third place on the Mid Scotland & Fife Regional List (and even that may not be enough), as Dunfermline West isn't natural Conservative territory.

Lyburn says that the Tories need a more youthful image in Scotland. Goldie will simply say that he's entitled to his opinion but that she is still popular among Party members. The onslaught of public criticism that she's faced this month would suggest otherwise, but I'll give her the benefit of the doubt and assume that it's a vocal minority. Even so, it's still a blow to her credibility. And this Leadership 'challenge' (he can't actually challenge her, but he has effectively called for her replacement) is a disaster: it's the Tories' 'Bill Wilson' moment (Bill Wilson was the SNP activist who challenged John Swinney for the Leadership in 2003), easy enough for the Leader to see off, but the fact that it has happened at all is still an embarrassment. The worst thing is, Wilson's challenge came in the wake of an awful election for the SNP. Lyburn's comments have come before the election. It looks like the death spiral of internecine warfare which has crippled the Tories for so long is back, and the outcome for them could be devastating.

The Scottish Right

This has been a bad week for the Tories. First we had the news that businessman Archie Stirling was setting up a breakaway political party (of which more below) which would park its tanks on the Conservatives' front lawn, and now we hear that Conservative Party candidate Jackson Carlaw is gunning for Annabel Goldie, the Party's Leader, in the vote to rank candidates on this year's Regional Lists. Carlaw is famous chiefly for telling racist jokes at Party functions, but he reckons that he would make a better Tory candidate (and possibly Leader) than Goldie.

Of course, the Tories do hold two seats in the Region, and Murray Tosh - the other West of Scotland Tory - is seeking election in the South of Scotland this time around as candidate for Dumfries. That creates a vacancy, so both Goldie and Carlaw could end up in Holyrood come May. But the fact that Goldie faces a rough selection battle is embarrassment enough: it shows the low opinion that some Tories have of her Leadership, and I expect a Leadership Election to take place within six months, especially as Carlaw is not alone: younger candidates are trying to unseat current MSPs in Glasgow and Highlands & Islands, while one candidate in Mid Scotland & Fife has appealed to members to de-select all of the Party's current MSPs.

Fortunately for the Party, the force which might have challenged them has started on weak ground. A few days ago, we thought that Archie Stirling was launching a new über-Unionist, die-hard-Tory party called Scottish Voice, which would either endorse current candidates or field its own. Instead, Stirling is launching a 'pragmatic' party called the Scottish Democrats, which seems to have no policy, no plan, no strategy and as such, no chance. That said, the 'sensible, pragmatic' approach is the traditional Tory way of doing things, which until the 1970s, could be summed up as having stood for 'the Union, the status quo and decency'. The Scottish Democrats look like they will go the way of the People's Alliance/New Party - almost incidental to the process, and the SPA had the benefit of IDS being Leader of the UK Conservatives, and defections from Tory MSPs who had been placed in low positions on their Lists.

Having said that, thanks to the PR aspect of the election, every vote matters, so while this new venture might not work out, they could prevent the Tories from picking up the odd Regional seat if things are close. Even on the Constituency vote, it's a close run thing: the Tory majority in Galloway and Upper Nithsdale is 99, while the Tories are in second-place in a handful of marginals. Particularly in the Labour-held ones, the presence of an alternative right-wing party could potentially make the difference in the result. But don't hold your breath.

FMQs

The first FMQs of 2006, and a relatively interesting session. Nicola Sturgeon led on the scandal in England, where registered sex offenders have been found working with children. She was anxious to know whether or not this was possible in Scotland. Her approach was sensible: it was consensual and constructive, asking why it was that the Sex Offenders' Register had some 3,000 names on it, but only 56 (it's now 63) people were expressly banned from working with children. Jack McConnell responded carefully and earnestly (so credit is due to him): he pointed out that it was theoretically possible (though it would depend on employers being lax) that sex offenders could end up working with children, and that the Executive would implement some of the Bichard Report's recommendations (the Report following the Soham murders in Cambridgeshire). He pointed out that the list of people who are expressly barred was only established recently and was not retrospective. He informed the Chamber that the law would have to be amended if it was felt that it needed to be made retrospective. Unfortunately, he didn't say he was going to do that.

Annabel Goldie led on the collapse of a murder case in Edinburgh: she wanted an inquiry. McConnell thought that the Lord Advocate should look into things, but stopped short of the inquiry wanted by the Tories.

Robin Harper, however, lobbed a hand grenade into proceedings, which was quite impressive considering how much he stuttered at the start. His opening gambit was to ask the First Minister what his contribution to sustainability was. McConnell was slightly stunned by this, but then announced that he shows leadership within the Executive on issues such as the environment, citing recycling as an example of where progress has been made. He went on to announce that he recycles his rubbish. (Well, actually he said, "I do my bit every week." This could be anything, really.)

At this point, McConnell must have been congratulating himself for getting out of what was a tight spot. What he didn't realise was that he'd walked right into Harper's trap, who used his last supplementary to refer to the Scottish Executive Environmental Performance Annual Report, which showed that Executive Business car mileage has increased by 65% in the past year, and a decision had been taken to drop quietly their target of car mileage reduction. The FM was completely thrown, and had to admit that he hadn't read the report. He also tried to make the Greens look like nerds for having read it themselves. It didn't work.

FMQs

There was a last-day-of-term feel to Holyrood today, possibly because this was in fact the last day of term. It reminded me of 'Toy Day' at primary school, when everyone brought in games to play.

Nicola Sturgeon brought Buckaroo. She was attempting to load the McConnell with different problems until he kicked out. Taking the biography of the First Minister ('Lucky Jack') as her inspiration, she first asked if Blair's continual refusal to deal with McConnell was what led him to meet with David Cameron. McConnell replied that both of them have been seen in Scotland, which was more than could be said for Alex Salmond. Sturgeon had the grace to laugh. She then went on waiting times. McConnell pointed out that he had met all his targets. Sturgeon brought out the hidden waiting list manoeuvre (when will these two stop playing 'My statistics are bigger than yours?'). McConnell lashed out, Nat-bashing, and then presenting the Parliament with a list of Nice Things. It was lovely really!

Annabel Goldie went for Backgammon. There's no real reason why I've picked that one, except it feels like a Tory game. Aside from a brief discussion about plans for the New Year, and Goldie telling the FM that 'meetings can be very fruitful' (is she coming on to him?), this was far more serious. She led with the story of two thirteen year-olds found collapsed on the streets of Aberdeen having drunk themselves stupid. She asked for more to be done, and for the Children's Panel to be used to deal with under-age drinking. McConnell struck a conciliatory note. There was an acknowledgement on both sides that action needed to be taken and this was the so-called 'New Politics' at its finest.

Colin Fox brought Go For Broke (see my previous post). He discussed the target of securing equal pay and conditions for male and female council workers and asked the McConnell whether he would raise Council Tax or cut services to achieve this. McConnell tried some Trot-bashing for a change. A brief waste of time, and a shame after the festive ambience provided by Sturgeon and (to a lesser extent) Goldie. That said, McConnell did get in a dig about Fox's Robin Hood costume. He has, therefore, gone up in my estimation.

FMQs

Well, I don't know about you, but I need a stiff drink after this week's instalment. Nicola Sturgeon led with financing for local councils, citing a Finance Committee report that suggests that councils will have to increase Council Tax by up to 6.6% if they aren't allowed to keep any efficiency savings that they make. Jack McConnell denied that the Finance Committee said this (they didn't say it exactly, but the figure 6.6% is used in Paragraph 86 of the Report as the rise if no furhter savings are made, and it points out that the savings that are going to be made won't be efficiency savings as they'll lead to a cut in services, so McConnell wasn't on sure ground here), then said that even if they did, they're wrong. More Nat-bashing ensued. Wendy Alexander (Lab, Paisley North and a member of the Finance Committee) stepped in, but forgot that as this was First Minister's Questions, you have to ask a question, thus incurring the wrath of George Reid.

Annabel Goldie asked why people are killing each other more under Labour. McConnell looked like he wanted to add another figure to that statistic at that moment, but decided instead to point out that when the Tories tried to end automatic early release for prisoners, it was cack-handed electioneering, whereas when his Executive gets around to it, it won't be. The facts that this was a promise in the Labour 2003 Manifesto, there's less than 18 months to the next election and it hasn't been done yet were clearly lost on him.

Colin Fox decided to ask an urgent question to gloat about the decision of Edinburgh Council's tenants not to have their housing stock transferred to a Housing Association. McConnell said that the decision was tragic (i.e. the people of Edinburgh are wrong - way to endear yourself to them before an election, Jack!), and blamed Fox for lying to them about the consequences of stock transfer (i.e. the people of Edinburgh are mugs - fantastic, Jack!). He then claimed he was a Socialist. Personally, I'm not sure that Jack would recognise Socialism if it came up and nutted him, but the First Minister never lets pesky things like the facts get in the way of a good rant.

Then it was Robin Harper's turn. Harper is more easy to listen to then his colleague Shiona Baird, but he does have a tendency to stumble his way thorugh a question. This week he stumbled his way through rendition, with a rather halting question about whether or not the First Minister would co-operate with the Council of Europe's call for an investigation into it. McConnell gave an equally halting answer about how he can't order the police or the Lord Advocate to issue the necessary search warrant.

FMQs

For those of you who read this as a substitute for watching it, let me just say that you missed nothing!

Sturgeon led on the Auditor General's report on the NHS, and started complaining about so-called 'hidden' waiting lists. McConnell pointed out that they weren't actually hidden. They accused each other of undermining the medical profession. I decided to finish a su doku puzzle rather than keep listening. Judging by the screeching and posturing, I made the right decision.

Goldie is trying to be Cameron-esque, extending her bosom (McConnell brought bosoms into this, by the way) to McConnell if he takes a more Blairite line. The First Minister didn't quite know what to do, and started talking about David Cameron's bosom. I decided to start on the kakuro puzzle rather than watch the sick spectacle unfold.

And Colin Fox attempted to guilt trip McConnell over the War in Iraq, noting Cindy Sheehan's visit to Parliament. I listened, but it sounded at best dull and at worst whiny. Tommy Sheridan would have done a far better job. Please come back, Tommy. All is forgiven!

FMQs

Well, McConnell came out fighting today, slamming the Opposiiton parties for their stance on immigration. Unfortunately, it pretty much turned into a train wreck. Our Jack seems quite convinced that he can actually change policy for the whole of the UK. Sadly, everything he said, Tony McNulty has smacked down already. Never one to let the facts get in the way of some Nat-bashing, however Jack pressed on, saying that he had made representations to the Home Office despite the fact that according to them, he's never asked them to change their policy. They can't both be right! Not only that, but Jack dug an even deeper hole for himself when he said that since the Westminster elections not one SNP MP had brought this up at Westminster, suggesting that he's the only person to have raised this. Except this comes from Hansard of 3rd November, Column 982, during Business Questions:

Pete Wishart (Perth and North Perthshire) (SNP): When we have the debate on returning asylum seekers, can we have a good and proper look at the use of dawn raids by the immigration service? There is almost universal revulsion and embarrassment in Scotland about the use of that practice, especially with our backdrop of a falling population. Does the Leader of the House agree that because of our different immigration requirements, and because of our clearly different political values on the matter, it is time to devolve immigration to the Scottish Parliament?

So not only is there a gap between what he's saying and what the Home Office are saying on what he's discussed with them, but there's also a gap between what he said and what Hansard has recorded about the SNP. Oh dear. And that's before you factor in the difference between McConnell's viewpoint (dawn raids are necessary as part of the immigration policy) and Communities Minister Malcom Chisholm's comments that dawn raids are an awful thing. Both Nicola Sturgeon and Colin Fox had a field day with him on this.

Annabel Goldie, on the other hand, took a different tack: she opened as though she were part of a tag team with Nicola Sturgeon (a concept that may worry both SNP and Tory activists), then started talking about energy policy. It is interesting (well, it is if you're me) that while Jack McConnell ruled out new nuclear power stations in Scotland, Tony Blair is taking a pro-nuclear line in Whitehall. What's even more interesting is that Goldie seemed to be supporting Blair on this one. Now, obviously, you'd expect the Tories to be pro-nuclear, but there's definitely a positioning going on here - it goes without saying that she's trying to get Blair supporters to defect to the Tories for 2007. This is just what they need to hold onto their three consitituency seats and maybe take Perth from the SNP as well. Mind you, that's not to say it'll pay off!