Chisholm presses the nuclear button

I've written a good deal about Malcolm Chisholm over the past few months, more than any other minister with the possible exception of Jack McConnell. I might have written slightly more about Gordon Jackson, but 1) I'm not sure, and 2) he's not a minister so he doesn't count. Anyway, the Chisholm saga being one of the longest running stories on this blog, it's only fitting that as we come to the end of the year, the tale should come to an end. It did so last night, as the Communities Minister left his post, after voting with the SNP over Trident.

It's pleasant (but sadly rare) that someone values their principles over their ministerial post, and Chisholm has to be congratulated for his stance. Sadly, it's the only real justification I have for saying anything positive about him. This was a man who had to be re-shuffled out of the Health portfolio simply to stop the wave of embarrassing headlines concerning the NHS. This was a man who failed to secure support for the Executive's key Communities policy in Edinburgh, Stirling, Renfrewshire and Highland. And when does he finally resign? When he votes with the SNP over the positioning of nuclear submarines in Scotland. I hope readers will excuse me when I suggest that maybe, just maybe, Chisholm does not deserve a tickertape parade for this one.

McConnell will of course have to find a replacement, but as (s)he can't be ratified until after the holidays, he has a few weeks to consider the situation. When Peter Peacock resigned, I tipped Allan Wilson to succeed him. This didn't happen and I don't see him succeeding Chisholm either. The Communities brief requires some basic people skills, and Wilson appears not to have any, preferring to spend his entire waking life complaining about the SNP's Higher Education policy. This probably suits McConnell so he's staying put, I suspect. It might be tempting to stick Lewis MacDonald in there to raise the profile of an MSP in a marginal seat, but Aberdeen Central is too marginal (so raising his profile would serve only to provide the SNP with a high-profile scalp) and with the problems that Chisholm faced in the job it might damage MacDonald's standing rather than enhance it. Given that McConnell is only performing 'sticking plaster' appointments now (promoting a Deputy Minister to replace a Minister, promoting a Backbencher to fill the Deputy's post) rather than actually moving sitting Ministers around, Patricia Ferguson and Margaret Curran's Hands will also stay put. My money's on Rhona Brankin, the Deputy Environment Minister. She has experience of Community issues, having helped to establish Ross-shire Women's Aid. She's also not Johann Lamont or Des McNulty, who only got their current positions last month.

Of course, the interesting thing to come out of the Trident debate was not the resignation of a Minister, or the fact that none of the Parties' positions gained enough support (all but four Labour MSPs are too busy to consider issues of global geo-politics and the morality of Weapons of Mass Destruction, when they have to stop the SNP from winning a vote), but that Jack McConnell mysteriously contracted bronchitis just in time to miss yesterday's business. I know that he used to lose his voice on reserved issues (Dungavel springs to mind, when you could write down everything Jack said about it on a single piece of toilet paper), but I never realised that he literally lost the ability to speak.

Oh, and while I'm here, Iain Gray has been selected to fight East Lothian in place of John Home Robertson. Given that the seat was reasonably secure, that's him almost certain to return to Holyrood.

A reprieve for Chisholm

Malcolm Chisholm has received an early Christmas present: tenants in Inverclyde have voted for stock transfer, the first set of Council tenants to do so since Edinburgh's rejection of the policy last year. He will be relieved to come to the end of the year with one success under his belt.

And seeing has McConnell has left him in place, but also allowed him to fell the full force of the press over this issue, you can't help but feel that the Communities Minister almost deserves this one.

Chisholm defeated again

The tenants of Highland Council have rejected stock transfer in a referendum. This is the fourth defeat for the Executive's key housing policy, and all defeats have come over the past 12 months. As the Executive's Minister in charge of this policy the last two years, Malcolm Chisholm has a lot to answer for.

Logically, there are now three options:

1. A change in policy. Any U-turn now would show just how desperate the Labour Party was. If this were to happen, it would most likely end up as a part of the Labour Manifesto next year. If they stick with it, it'll cost them seats, and the most prominent casualty could be the new Education Minister Hugh Henry.

2. A change in presentation. Labour's efforts to sell the policy are failing, possibly because they focus on the bad things that might happen if people vote No. If the policy is that good, why can't they talk about the good things that could happen if people vote Yes?

3. A change in personnel. Jack McConnell has missed two oppportunities to sack Malcolm Chisholm, time is running out, and if Chisholm were going to go of his own accord, you'd have expected him to go after the Renfreshire defeat. However, a campaign is still going on in Inverclyde. That must surely be the nail in Chisholm's political coffin. However, Chisholm might get a stay of execution until the election. Even if McConnell is re-elected as First Minister, Chisholm may find that he loses his place in the Cabinet. Unfortunately, the damage is now too severe to sack him now: the policy is in tatters and replacing Chisholm won't make anyone support it. Continuing with the policy (or the current campaign style) will simply end the career of another Minister. No one will want Chisholm's job if it's seen as supping from the poisoned chalice: so if McConnell goes down this road he has to ditch the policy as well.

That is why the First Minister will take none of the options. He will stick with the policy, at least until the Election. If there are any more votes coming up after Inverclyde, the same old horror stories about houses falling apart under continued Council ownsership will be trotted out. And Malcolm Chisholm will be sent to the schemes, like a lamb to the slaughter. His reward will be a much reduced majority and dismissal from the frontbench, regardless of whether Labour is in Government or Opposition come May.

A few continuing stories (Updated)

A quick glance through the weekend's papers (and a look at the TV programmes) tells me that this is a week to look at stories that I've already covered, and how they're progressing.

Firstly, on stock transfer: Malcolm Chisholm has been interviewed today, informing viewers that he has personally visited all of the Council areas where the Council Tenants have been balloted on having their housing transferred over to an association. Obviously, Edinburgh (his home patch) was the first of these. The tenants voted No. He's visited Stirling. They voted No. He visited Renfrewshire. They voted No, which could possibly gift two marginal constituencies to the SNP next May. He's also campaigning in Inverclyde and Highland, no doubt to the abject terror of local Labour parties in those areas. Having admitted that he is now the Zelig of stock transfer debacles, he's effectively cursed any future plans while he's Communities Minister and now seems to have "Sack Me" written on his face.

On party funding there are two interesting stories worth considering: the first is the RMT's decision to end its affiliation to the SSP, as discussed here. They haven't as yet announced their support for Solidarity, but I suspect that this will be a matter of 'when' rather than 'if'. Meanwhile, the £2.4 million donated to the LibDems by convicted perjurer Michael Brown is causing consternation: reports abound that the party will have to return the cash, and the Scottish LibDems have opted against disclosing how much of that money went their way, but seeing as their 2005 Election expenses were more than double their 2001 figures, I'd guess that it was quite a bit. But if there is a forced repayment, it'll leave the LibDems' 2007 campaign in tatters.

Finally, The Greens will be discussing Coalition options (a subject I like to come back to occasionally) at their Conference next week, with Patrick Harvie taking the initiative by circulating a paper on what part the party could play in propping up any potential Executive next year. Although he's tight-lipped on what policies will have to be part of any deal (though he has re-stated the party's opposition to nuclear power), he did mention his preferred option for how the deal would work. He's seeking the activists' backing for the 'Confidence and Supply' model, where the Greens would take no ministerial seats and would not be expected to support the Executive on most matters, but they would support another party's candidate for First Minister, back the Executive in confidence motions and vote for the Executive's Budget in exchange for concessions on policy over the four-year term.

Harvie says this will allow a more exciting form of politics, where an Executive will have to win an argument before it wins the vote. I think it'll lead to more U.S. Congress-style 'pork barrel' politics, with Executive whips having to negotiate with other parties, and individual members of all political hues (including their own), in order to get votes passed, where the only question Ministers will have to answer from MSPs will be, "What's in it for us?" Or perhaps I'm getting cynical.

UPDATE: According to Kenny Sheerin's blog, the Scottish Republican Socialist Movement has also disaffiliated from the SSP, apparently citing concerns that the party isn't giving enough weight to the Independence argument. However, a number of SRSM members will stay in the party as individuals, so I don't think they're switching to Solidarity.

Malcolm's mire

The Malcolm in question is, of course, Communities Minister Malcolm Chisholm. Today he found out that a third local Council has had stock transfer plans rebuffed in a referendum of tenants. Renfrewshire joins Stirling (which rejected the plans last week) and Edinburgh, Chisholm's home patch, which rejected them at the end of last year. All three defeats (the only defeats so far, though Inverclyde and Highland are to consult their tenants on similar proposals) have taken place since Chisholm took up the Communities brief.

Chisholm has, of course, issued the usual dire predictions on the future of housing in Renfrewshire, but he might want to be worried about his own future: the Scottish Tenants' Association is calling for his head. Meanwhile, this latest reversal affects two key marginal seats: Paisley South (Hugh Henry) and West Renfrewshire (Trish Godman), so the SNP's chances of taking the Constituencies next May have probably increased with this. The only thing saving Chisholm now is that McConnell has missed what is probably his last opportunity - the resignation of Colin Boyd QC as Lord Advocate - to reshuffle him to a job where he's less likely to face calls for his head, as he had to endure when he was Health Minister as well. Unfortunately for Chisholm, there's little sign that McConnell is minded to create a Minister of Getting The Sandwiches For Us in the foreseeable future. And even if he did, Chisholm would probably spark a row there as well.

Then there's the post-May future: these defeats are an embarrassment to the Executive, so if Jack McConnell is still FM after the Elections, he might have to axe Malcolm Chisholm, or perhaps put him forward for a Committee Convenership where he doesn't reflect quite as badly on other Ministers. If Labour do find themselves in Opposition, he might just retain a frontbench post, but only if a number of key Labour people lose seats (Chisholm should thank his lucky stars that Deputy Ministers like Lewis MacDonald and Hugh Henry are in marginal seats). I know I seem to have it in for the guy, but really, I don't see a future in the Executive for Malcolm Chisholm.

Of course, if Jack had read and taken my advice in January, and reshuffled Chisholm out of Communities over the summer, then that might not have stopped the stock transfer defeats in Stirling and Renfrewshire, but Chisholm might have had a chance to salvage his reputation and someone else might have been able to spin their way out of this.