TommyWatch

On watching a clip of Tommy Sheridan's entrance into the Big Brother House (yes, readers, see how much I am willing to suffer for you), I'm struck by the booing. I thought that hardly anyone had heard of him (hence Davina's explanation of just who he is) so wouldn't be in a position to jeer. Maybe they just boo politicians by default. Maybe they were sent there by the SSP. Or the News of the World. Or MI5. Or, in Tommy's mind, no doubt, all three in a massive conspiracy. Though having said that, they seemed to have been booing everyone.

I'm also struck by Davina's inability to pronounce the word 'Convener'. So for the benefit of La McCall, and those listening to her, it's pronounced "con-VEE-ner", and not "CUH-vuh-ner". Note the extra N in the first syllable, and the stress on the second syllable rather than the first. It is not the word "coven", with an "-er" suffix on the end, but "convene" with the suffix. For those unfamiliar with the meaning, a Committee Convener is its Chairperson, while the Convener of a political party is, in effect, its Leader.

And as Tommy Sheridan is a Co-Convener, let me take a moment to remind everyone of Rosemary Byrne's existence. And, indeed, Solidarity's existence, which has received fewer first preference votes than the SSP across the Council By-Elections that took place last year, came behind the SSP in the two Westminster By-Elections (including eighth and last place in Glenrothes), and in 2007, lost its only Councillor when Ruth Black defected to Labour.

So you might think that this is a good way of getting easy publicity - reminding the world of Tommy Sheridan's existence on national television. But his perjury trial will do that. And publicity for Tommy isn't necessarily publicity for Solidarity. But then. this isn't about the advertising: the man himself has said that he's after the cash this will bring.

Trying to move cash from Channel 4's coffers to his own bank account. I'm not sure that's the conventional Socialist view of redistribution of wealth, but there you go.

Sheridan update

Following my earlier post, Sky News is now reporting that Tommy Sheridan has indeed been charged with perjury.

It has taken less than seven hours to get from arrest to charge in this instance. Why does the Government think that it should be allowed to take six weeks?

But I digress. I'd say Tommy's in trouble, but he appeared to be staring defeat in the face when he was suing the News of the World. Tommy might yet pull off another shock victory from the dock.

In his case, anything is possible.

An arresting development

At about 1:10p.m. today, broadcaster - well, he presents a radio show on an Edinburgh station - former MSP and Leader of Solidarity, Tommy Sheridan, was picked up by three plain-clothes police officers and taken away, in connection with in enquiry into perjury allegations.

This is the latest chapter in a very long-running saga.

For those who don't know the story - i.e. have had absolutely no contact with Scotland at all since late 2004 - here is a quick summary. In November 2004, Tommy Sheridan abruptly resigned as Convener of the SSP. Allegations were then made about a rather colourful private life on the permatanned MSP in the News of the World, and it later emerged that the SSP were aware fo these allegations and forced him to resign. Sheridan successfully sued the NOTW for defammation of character, picking up £200,000 in damages, despite key members of the Party testifying against him. Given that the pro-Sheridan and anti-Sheridan camps gave vidence that contradicted each other's testimonies, it was clear as soon as the verdict was reached that one side had committed perjury, and an investigation was launched. This is the latest chapter in that story.

On the political side of things, following the trial, Sheridan subsequently announced his intention to challenge Colin Fox - his successor as Convener - for Leadership of the SSP, but then decided to lead a breakaway party instead. So Solidarity was born, taking Rosemary Byrne (then MSP for the South of Scotland), the SWP and CWI with Tommy. The election campaign was an acrimonious one, with Sheridan branding the SSP 'scabs' who co-operated with Rupert Murdoch, and SSP players such as Carolyn Leckie referring to Sheridan as a liability. The election, inevitably, proved to be a disaster for both: Sheridan narrowly missed out on re-election; Byrne came nowhere near, and the SSP were wiped out completely. It looked as though Sheridan had won.

But was it over? Solidarity won one Council seat in Glasgow - Ruth Black - and the SSP still had Jim Bollan on West Dunbartonshire Council. Forecasts of the SSP's demise have not yet come to fruition, and a recent YouGov poll had the SSP on 3% of the Regional Vote - which by my reckoning, would give them one MSP in Glasgow - to Solidarity's 1% - which would give them nothing. And Sheridan's allies, the SWP, have been drawn into a row in England as Respect, George Galloway's leftist party, which was allied with Solidarity, are splitting following a row between Galloway and the SWP Leadership. Now the police have come for Sheridan.

The SSP must no doubt feel vindicated tonight. But can they ever turn that smug sense fo self-satisfaction at events (which they're entitled to) into actual success? Will we ever see SSP MSPs again? Can SSP Parliamentary candidates hold on to their deposits?

And what of Solidarity? If Sheridan goes down, can the party survive?

It seems the story of the Left in Scotland, which I thought had ended - or at least ceased to be significant - will in fact be carrying on into 2008.

PS Anyone looking for an excellent, detailed tracking of the saga as it unfolded should check out Scott's archive over at Love and Garbage.

Is "Solidarity" in breach of the Trades Descriptions Act?

We now know that Tommy Sheridan is pretty much certain to quit the SSP and set up a new group called "Solidarity". We also know that quite a few activists and SSP Branches are going with him, including the SWP and the CWI (as expected). The most important defection though is Rosemary Byrne's. This gives Solidarity two MSPs, and leaves the SSP with four. You need five MSPs to be given a seat on the Parliamentary Bureau and a slot at FMQs. Neither of them have this, so Tommy has just made both groups significantly weaker. Nor is either group likely to join the group of Independents as long as Brian Monteith is in it. Now, you can't really blame them for this, but it seems a strange position to take when Campbell Martin (who launched recently a broadside at the SNP for being too right-wing) is comfortable enough within the group.

If you want a wager, here's my tip: within Holyrood, it'll be Solidarity who are isolated (though they'll take most of the SSP activists and voters with them over the next few weeks and months), and the SSP will be making doe-eyes at Campbell Martin just to keep them at 5 MSPs. If he has any sense, he'll ignore them: they need him more than he needs them, and while he has nothing to lose or gain right now whatever he does, he'd probably do better next May as an Independent than as an SSP candidate.

In other news, Tory activists in Mid Scotland and Fife have suggested to Party members that the wisest course of action would be to de-select all of the Party's MSPs. This hasn't a chance of succeeding (though a couple might find themselves in the wilderness, as Keith Harding and Lyndsey McIntosh did last time around), but it is slightly embarrassing for Annabel Goldie to have this row played out in public. If they go back to internecine warfare (and it's been ages since they've had enough people to do that), then they can wave goodbye to any prospects of progress next year.

Has Tommy pressed the self-destruct button?

The Herald suggests that he has, with rumours abounding that Tommy Sheridan is to abandon his leadership bid and set up a new party. He's citing the fact that even if he were to win, the United Left faction would constantly try and undermine him. United Left are saying that he knows he can't win. A couple of weeks ago, I would have accepted Tommy Sheridan's reasoning, but events have led me to question that: after all, in the last week or so, we've gone from Tommy standing as long as an overwhelming number of branches support him, to Tommy maybe quitting from politics, to Tommy possibly setting up a splinter party.

So what can we draw from that? Well, the most obvious conclusion is that the levels of support that Tommy Sheridan thought were there for him simply aren't. Secondly, we can actually take the basic premise of his interpretation at face value (even if it isn't the real reason for his move): the SSP has now descended into two rival factions that can't stand each other. Victory for one means the other will seek open civil war, and a stalemate (Sheridan as National Convener, but a United Left Executive), would see the Party grind to a halt. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Sheridan is gambling that regardless of his position within the SSP, he is more popular than his soon-to-be-ex-comrades among the general public, and thinks that in an open contest, he can defeat them. He's probably right, but as I've said time and again, that will leave only a combined total of one for the SSP and the Sheridan Popular Front. And there are no prizes for guessing who that one will be.

A clutch of Sheridans

(Or perhaps the collective noun is a Soviet?)

Anyway, we start with the non-SSP Sheridan, by the name of Jim, who is the Labour MP for Paisley and Renfrewshire North, and until yesterday was the Parliamentary Private Secretary at the Ministry of Defence. He has, however, quit, citing opposition to Blair's policy on the crisis in the Middle East. In contrast to his recently defamed namesake, Jim Sheridan is (or was) a Blair loyalist, always available for a rent-a-quote about how the Tories/LibDems/SNP/Keep Clackmannanshire Smiling Party (if it existed, he would criticise them) are terrible and will take us back to the dark days. He's now one of the many angry ex-senior Party members on the Backbenches, and he's got an axe to grind. However, in terms of resignations, this doesn't rank up there with Robin Cook's, but Sheridan's previous loyalty to the PM will mean that this is a blow: it's clear proof that Blair is losing the few friends he has left. It's doubtful that this will be the last resignation either.

Now we move on to Tommy, who has backers in Orkney, but might not have them in Glasgow: Rosie Kane is threatening that the Glasgow SSP could move Sheridan down to third or lower on their regional list (first place goes to a man in the Glasgow SSP, second place to a woman). Frankly, I suspect that this is just hot air from Rosie Kane, who must surely realise that the bulk of grass-roots members have so far taken Sheridan's side, and she's simply trying to make life difficult for him while she still can. However, if it turns out that she's right, then it'll totally derail Sheridan's convenership bid (which is her real priority), and probably force him to follow in the footsteps of Dennis Canavan and Margo MacDonald.

Finally, there's Gail, who insiders are tipping to make a bid for election herself (though she's probably more likely to appear on Richard and Judy than on any ballot paper). However, she could well find herself second on the List at this rate, defeating Rosie Kane. Perhaps the Sheridans are on the verge of becoming a Socialist version of the Ewings?

Fox on the run?

The SSP's Orkney Branch has been the first to nominate (or at least, announce that they've nominated) Tommy Sheridan for the post of National Convener at the Autumn Conference.

Meanwhile, Colin Fox's line is still that the Party should judge him on his record (which isn't all that good, frankly, as I've said before). I saw his interview on Newsnight Scotland last night, and I think the strain (well, it might just be Tommy Sheridan's press offensive, but Fox seemed on the defensive) might be getting to him, judging by his comments about having "stood up to Tommy".

It would be interesting to see how many psychiatrists were watching that interview. And perhaps more interesting to see if any of them have offered Fox their services this morning.

Sheridan victory

As I'm sure most of you will be aware by now, Tommy Sheridan has won his defammation action against the News of the World (though they are going to appeal the decision), but as you might not know, STV have reported that he will be challenging Colin Fox for the Convenership this Autumn.

Of course, he'll win. And his supporters will win elections for all the key positions in the SSP, so don't be surprised if the Party has a new Treasurer, Secretary and Policy Co-ordinator by the end of the year. The problem is, where next for his MSPs?

Carolyn Leckie, his opponents' main cheerleader and founder of the United Left group within the SSP, has said that she's prepared to go to court and defend herself against perjury charges. Given that the jury chose not to believe her, she's in trouble, and that's before you consider her re-election prospects.

Rosie Kane was part of the attack on Sheridan. Unfortunately for her, the Glasgow SSP delayed their List selection until the end of these court proceedings, so she may have a rough ride internally, let alone at the Ballot Box. Her one saving grace that might keep her #2 position is the fact that she does still appear to have allies following this fiasco: the sheer number of key Party figures who testified against Sheridan might save her.

Colin Fox is doomed: he effectively sided against Sheridan during this affair, and has had a poor run as National Convener. He now looks set to lose that post, and deprived of the 'prominence' that should bring him (though let's face it, he was never that prominent), he's pretty likely to lose his MSP status in May.

Rosemary Byrne backed Sheridan, but she may still get caught in the crossfire: she won the last available List seat in 2003, and only a small drop in votes will see her lose that. That leaves Frances Curran, who was the quietest of the three SSP MSPs in United Left. I haven't got much to say about her, other than the fact that, like the others, she's in trouble.

And beyond Holyrood, there's the wider Party to think about. A major fault-line has been exposed in a Party that was always based on a series of disparate groups, few of whom actually got on with each other in the first place. It was only the personality of Tommy Sheridan that kept them together, but he's now in the unhappy position of having very public enemies. So while the trial may have ended, the internecine warfare has, I suspect, only just begun, and it will leave a nasty taste in the mouth of the left-wing electorate, who might decide instead to vote Green, SNP (in places), or even for Arthur Scargill's Socialist Labour Party as an alternative (if it's still going). Nor is there really anything to stop George Galloway's Respect Party sweeping in to fill the vacuum, should the SSP collapse.

Which means that by next May, we could well be back to seeing Tommy Sheridan ploughing a lone furrow.

The Best of the Rest

Tory Deputy Leader Murdo Fraser has failed in his bid to be selected for Perth, where his Party came close to beating Roseanna Cunningham of the SNP in 2003. However, Brian Monteith's suspension and resignation from the Party has created a vacancy in Stirling, where the Tory maverick had initially been selected as the candidate. As regular readers will be aware, Ian Davidson will not be the candidate in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (and is, I assume, frantically searching another constituency), while positioning has begun in Edinburgh Pentlands, where former Leader David McLetchie is likely to stand down.

LibDem MSP Donald Gorrie is standing down, and his likely replacement at the head of the List in Central Scotland is his assistant, Hugh O'Donnell. Jim Wallace's former special adviser Liam McArthur will be fighting his ex-boss's seat, while the Party is sharpening its knives in Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber. Lobbyist Craig Harrow is the likely candidate, and the LibDems reckon they have a good chance of unseating Fergus Ewing of the SNP following their recent victory in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey in the Westminster Election. Further, East Dunbartonshire Council Leader John Morrison has ruled himself out of the running for Strathkelvin and Bearsden. The LibDems' victory in East Dunbartonshire last May makes this seat another mouth-watering prospect for the Party, although the Jean Turner factor could well upset the balance of power here once again.

And finally, the SSP have delayed their selection process for the Glasgow List pending Tommy Sheridan's libel action. However, there are reports of in-fighting, which may jeopardise his #1 ranking, which he enjoyed in 1999 and 2003. This could end up going to the Party's other MSP in the city Rosie Kane, who was #2 on the List in 2003.