Leadership Saturday: It's not easy being Green

Roughly twelve months ago, I forecast the likely departure of Robin Harper from the joint Convenership of the Greens, either in 2008 or 2009. I then backed this up a few weeks ago, when I argued that his departure had to take place this year. In an interview to the Herald, Robin Harper has confirmed that this will in fact be the case.

Patrick Harvie is the only logical choice, and any challenger would be strictly cosmetic: Steve Burgess is an Edinburgh Councillor like the other Co-Convener Alison Johnstone, so is not an option; Danny Alderslowe, Stuart Clay and Kieran Wild are Glasgow Councillors but as such would be overshadowed by Patrick Harvie; Martin Bartos was the Greens' standard-bearer in Glasgow Kelvin but again, would be overshadowed by Harvie. Former MSPs Chris Ballance, Mark Ballard and Mark Ruskell are former MSPs, and the loss of MSP status is most likely what led to Shiona Baird stepping down as Co-Convener last year.

But the key of Harper's exit was the call made for a single leader, a decision just taken by the Green Party of England & Wales. Now, leaving aside the fact that Alison Johnstone's apparently subterranean profile and Patrick Harvie's status as an MSP would combine to make him a de facto single Leader, it makes sense. Indeed, it makes greater sense for the Scottish Greens to go this way than it does for their colleagues South of the Border: given that the Greens managed to stay in Holyrood when other smaller parties didn't shows they have staying power and some potential. It's not inconceivable that there could at some stage be Greens in a Coalition at some point in the future, or at the very least that the Greens could bounce back an restore their status as a recognised Parliamentary group with a spot at FMQs. So it makes sense to have a single, recognisable figure at the helm. How can two Leaders be Deputy First Minister, for instance? ASWaS makes a good case for change.

But will the Scottish Greens go for it?

The Sack Race

With two Opposition parties' Leaders gone, tongues are being placed firmly in cheeks as discussions about Annabel Goldie's future begin. However, it's a mark of how well she's done that the lines are in jest: no one, save the rather unsurprising figure of Brian Monteith, is seriously suggesting that her time is up. Contrast that with eighteen months ago, when the Scottish Tories were perceived as limping towards the finish line, and Goldie would be gone almost immediately after the election. The Tories did OK - not great, but OK - and Goldie has exerted a large amount of influence in Session 3 of the Scottish Parliament. She'd be mad to go.

Besides, there's a more obvious target if you know where to look. I am looking at Robin Harper, Co-Convener of the Greens. Let me begin by asking: when was the last time you spotted Robin Harper anywhere? By contrast, haven't you noticed how often it's Patrick Harvie speaking for the Party? That's the first sign that Harper's foot is slowly coming off the pedals.

Secondly, remember who the other Co-Convener is: Alison Johnstone, Green Councillor in Edinburgh. That's an Edinburgh City Councillor and MSP for the Lothians. See the problem there? I know I do. An all-Edinburgh Leadership strikes me as being unsustainable and something has to give. No, Johnstone's ascent marks what I believe is a phased transition: the first step of Harper's withdrawl.

Shiona Baird had to go first - there's no doubt about that and her main asset was her Membership of the Scottish Parliament. When she lost that, her position was untenable, particularly when there were Green Councillors in Scotland's two largest cities who could take her place. But why did the Party go East - where Robin Harper is - rather than West - balancing the party in geography as well as in gender?

The answer is the concluding phase of Harper's departure: Patrick Harvie is the obvious choice to succeed Harper. Where is Harvie based? Glasgow. So electing a Glaswegian woman to the joint Convenership in 2007, then having her be joined by a Glaswegian man a little while later would concentrate power in Glasgow, and on the basis of a longer term than the current Edinburgh concentration will now provide. No, it was impossible to elect a Glasgow Councillor in 2007, when the Glasgow MSP is on the way in. It is, on the other hand, logical to turn to an Edinburgh Councillor, when the Edinburgh MSP is on his way out. In short, Johnstone in means Harper out, and Harvie in.

Then there's the timing? Does it really have to be this year? Yes, it does. We are entering an active phase in Scottish politics: 2009 is the year of the European election; 2010 the Westminster election (and maybe the Referendum); 2011 is the year of the next Holyrood Elections and 2012 appears to be when the local Elections will be held. Now is the time to go: before the cycle starts and just before the point in the cycle about which, to be blunt (and I apologise to MEPs who may be reading), the fewest people care. The Autumn Conference is the best time to depart for Robin Harper.

Which is why he's next to go.

The Sunday Mish-Mash

A few notables here: Margaret Mitchell looks on course to be re-elected in Central Scotland, barring a major disaster for the Tories. The same goes for Bill Aitken in Glasgow, but there's a wider concern here: only four out of a possible ten candidates have gone forward for ranking. What happened to the other six? I mean, I know that they were largely paper candidates anyway (even Aitken's presence on the Constituency Vote would probably be to make up the numbers), and that even a #2 Candidate is only needed in the event that Bill Aitken drops, but come on! It's hardly inspiring to the electorate of anywhere when the UK's main opposition party, and third largest party in Holyrood, not to mention possible kingmakers, can muster only four Regional candidates!

Anyway, Mary Scanlon looks set for a return to Holyrood following her unsuccessful gamble in Moray while Jamie McGrigor should be on his way back. Dave Petrie, though, is doomed: he musters a paltry 5th place on the List and has to fight the Western Isles, a Lab-SNP marginal. David McLetchie looks fairly strong in first place (and he has his Constituency anyway) and Gavin Brown's second place should see him enter Holyrood - this could make the battle in Edinburgh South in 2011 a lot more interesting... or perhaps even in the next Westminster Election if Brown decides to follow David Mundell, so far the only Conservative to successfully transfer from Holyrood to Westminster via a Scottish Constituency.

Murdo Fraser looks likely to come back, and Liz Smith might well be another new face, replacing Brian Monteith who was forced out of the Party. Ted Brocklebank takes third, so if the status quo holds up, he'll be fine. 'Leadership Challenger' Peter Lyburn (!) comes fifth, so he'll sink without trace after the Election. The three Tory MSPs in the North East take the Top 3 places there, so it's no change.

The South is an interesting list: firstly, Murray Tosh returns to the region after a four-year flirtation with the West, but he only takes 4th spot, behind John Lamont. Under normal circumstances, he would have a fair shout at winning Dumfries, but the Tories haven't been doing enough to look like winning key marginals. Alex Fergusson hasn't gone forward for ranking, with is risky considering his 99-vote majority, and John Scott should return to Holyrood as MSP for Ayr anyway, so I'd hazard that Derek Brownlee (2nd) will definitely return after replacing David Mundell in 2005. Lamont's entry is contingent on the Tories winning no more than two constituencies, while Tosh needs Alex Fergusson to lose. In the West, Annabel Goldie takes #1 spot, followed by famous racist comedian Jackson Carlaw, who isn't her biggest fan.

Meanwhile, speaking of Murray Tosh, any hopes he may have of being Presiding Officer could be dealt a blow: Robin Harper is being tipped to win the position by Scotland on Sunday, who the suggest that the outcome of the Election will be so tight that none of the larger parties will want to lose a Member to a politically-neutral position. Also, with current Deputies Trish Godman and Murray Tosh facing uncertainty in their re-election bids, George Reid stepping down, and a general lack of other notable names, Harper seems like a good bet.

Finally, the good people at Scottish Political News have discovered this neat little tool. I'm sticking it straight into News and Resources.

FMQs

The first FMQs of 2006, and a relatively interesting session. Nicola Sturgeon led on the scandal in England, where registered sex offenders have been found working with children. She was anxious to know whether or not this was possible in Scotland. Her approach was sensible: it was consensual and constructive, asking why it was that the Sex Offenders' Register had some 3,000 names on it, but only 56 (it's now 63) people were expressly banned from working with children. Jack McConnell responded carefully and earnestly (so credit is due to him): he pointed out that it was theoretically possible (though it would depend on employers being lax) that sex offenders could end up working with children, and that the Executive would implement some of the Bichard Report's recommendations (the Report following the Soham murders in Cambridgeshire). He pointed out that the list of people who are expressly barred was only established recently and was not retrospective. He informed the Chamber that the law would have to be amended if it was felt that it needed to be made retrospective. Unfortunately, he didn't say he was going to do that.

Annabel Goldie led on the collapse of a murder case in Edinburgh: she wanted an inquiry. McConnell thought that the Lord Advocate should look into things, but stopped short of the inquiry wanted by the Tories.

Robin Harper, however, lobbed a hand grenade into proceedings, which was quite impressive considering how much he stuttered at the start. His opening gambit was to ask the First Minister what his contribution to sustainability was. McConnell was slightly stunned by this, but then announced that he shows leadership within the Executive on issues such as the environment, citing recycling as an example of where progress has been made. He went on to announce that he recycles his rubbish. (Well, actually he said, "I do my bit every week." This could be anything, really.)

At this point, McConnell must have been congratulating himself for getting out of what was a tight spot. What he didn't realise was that he'd walked right into Harper's trap, who used his last supplementary to refer to the Scottish Executive Environmental Performance Annual Report, which showed that Executive Business car mileage has increased by 65% in the past year, and a decision had been taken to drop quietly their target of car mileage reduction. The FM was completely thrown, and had to admit that he hadn't read the report. He also tried to make the Greens look like nerds for having read it themselves. It didn't work.

FMQs

Well, I don't know about you, but I need a stiff drink after this week's instalment. Nicola Sturgeon led with financing for local councils, citing a Finance Committee report that suggests that councils will have to increase Council Tax by up to 6.6% if they aren't allowed to keep any efficiency savings that they make. Jack McConnell denied that the Finance Committee said this (they didn't say it exactly, but the figure 6.6% is used in Paragraph 86 of the Report as the rise if no furhter savings are made, and it points out that the savings that are going to be made won't be efficiency savings as they'll lead to a cut in services, so McConnell wasn't on sure ground here), then said that even if they did, they're wrong. More Nat-bashing ensued. Wendy Alexander (Lab, Paisley North and a member of the Finance Committee) stepped in, but forgot that as this was First Minister's Questions, you have to ask a question, thus incurring the wrath of George Reid.

Annabel Goldie asked why people are killing each other more under Labour. McConnell looked like he wanted to add another figure to that statistic at that moment, but decided instead to point out that when the Tories tried to end automatic early release for prisoners, it was cack-handed electioneering, whereas when his Executive gets around to it, it won't be. The facts that this was a promise in the Labour 2003 Manifesto, there's less than 18 months to the next election and it hasn't been done yet were clearly lost on him.

Colin Fox decided to ask an urgent question to gloat about the decision of Edinburgh Council's tenants not to have their housing stock transferred to a Housing Association. McConnell said that the decision was tragic (i.e. the people of Edinburgh are wrong - way to endear yourself to them before an election, Jack!), and blamed Fox for lying to them about the consequences of stock transfer (i.e. the people of Edinburgh are mugs - fantastic, Jack!). He then claimed he was a Socialist. Personally, I'm not sure that Jack would recognise Socialism if it came up and nutted him, but the First Minister never lets pesky things like the facts get in the way of a good rant.

Then it was Robin Harper's turn. Harper is more easy to listen to then his colleague Shiona Baird, but he does have a tendency to stumble his way thorugh a question. This week he stumbled his way through rendition, with a rather halting question about whether or not the First Minister would co-operate with the Council of Europe's call for an investigation into it. McConnell gave an equally halting answer about how he can't order the police or the Lord Advocate to issue the necessary search warrant.