With my post on the how Brown should play his relationship with the Unions raising some anonymous eyebrows, it might be worth bearing in mind that the TUC has voted to take "co-ordinated industrial action" against the Government, in protest at its current pay offer to public sector workers. Perhaps the confrontation scenario, which one poster felt was unlkely on the grounds that it would hand an election to the Tories, may be coming true after all. More at the BBC.

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Yes, folks, Conference season is upon us once again and as is traditional, we kick off with the TUC. (By the way, I'm hoping to be blogging from the SNP Conference in Aviemore next month, if I can get a good connection at the hotel)

Anyway, this is as good a time as any to think about Brown's relationship with the Unions. Many Trade Unionists have seen Brown as the antidote to Blair: Blair was a necessary evil, perhaps even a Trojan Horse, to make Labour acceptable to Middle England, and to secure a Labour Government; Brown was the one who would deliver real Labour policies. That was the expectation. What they got was a Prime Minister who has praised Margaret Thatcher (reviled by the Unions) for being a conviction politician, and brought in Tories as his advisors.

Remember that in 2005, UNISON launched a poster campaign, attacking the Tories and lampooning their own publicity ('Are you thinking what we're thinking?' was met with 'What are the Tories thinking?!'). If I were in UNISON, I know what I'd be asking: I'd be asking why so much time and effort was spent fighting the Tories and backing a third Labour term, only for a Labour PM to seek advice from Tories and pay homage to Thatcher.

So Brown does not (or at least, should not) start off with the best of relationships with the Unions. Where does he go from here?

Can he turn up the heat?

In the short term, yes. This will leave the Tories without a leg to stand on and generate positive headlines in the right-wing press. However, beyond that, it makes a full-on confrontation in the form of widespread industrial action very likely, and this will kill his Governmnet, just as the Winter of Discontent damaged Callaghan (though the devolution fiasco landed the fatal blow), and Heath's 'Who Governs Britain?' election to face down the miners generated the answer, "Not Edward Heath!" When the strikes bite, the press will turn, and the Tories will go on a very successful attack.

Can he pursue a niggly relationship with them, as now?

Possibly. It keeps his right flank solid, and in England, there is no credible left-wing alternative at the moment, with the exception of apathy. The LibDems are only leftist in some parts of the country (such as Manchester) and the total lack of impact by the Leadership rules them out of tempting people into their camp. Respect, meanwhile, requires large Muslim populations (and even then, they have to be completely disaffected with Labour, and completely unwilling to go in any other direction, neither of which is assured) and the person of George Galloway to thrive. Scotland is a different story: a LAbour that antagonises the Unions will lose leftist voters (though not key Union people themselves, who are too strongly associated with Labour to defect easily) hand over fist to the SNP. In a potential situation where every seat will matter, with the possibility of a Hung Parliament looming large, and with the West Lothian question hanging over politics like a cloud ready to unleash a torrential downpour, more SNP MPs would be Brown's worst nightmare. And with more SNP members in prominent local positions, it would be Wendy Alexander's worst nightmare as well.

Can he give the Unions everything they want?

Yes, but only if he wants to lose Middle England completely, hand over to David Cameron at the next election and see Labour reduced to a rump 'core vote', as the Tories have been in recent years.

Can he give them a little of what they want, but not everything?

Politically, this would be the worst option. If Brown gives an inch, the right will scream that he's kowtowing to the Unions. Only a handful will pick this up at first, but then, only a handful of Union members will be happy: they won't want to go part of the way towards their goals; they will want to reach them. Was the introduction of a minimum wage enough? Of course not: they want it to be higher. Is passing anti-discrimination law enough? Of course not: they (quite sensibly) want it to be enforced. Beyond employment law, did devolution kill the SNP stone dead, as George Robertson predicted? Definitely not!

With every demand that Brown agrees to, another one will come in its place. And with every demand Brown agrees to, the more people on the right of Labour's support will switch back to the Tories, and the more bitter the battle will become when the demands reach such a level that he has to dismiss them. He will face questions from the Right as to why he has drawn the line in the sand at that point and no sooner. He will face questions from the Left as to why he was willing to go as far as he had done, but no further. He will enter into a major row with the Unions, and perhaps the same industrial action as if he had gone into battle with them from Day One, but without the initial goodwill of the Right.

The bottom line

In short, Brown's options all carry risks: the 'niggle' option is possibly the safest for Brown, as he will be hit by the SNP, but strikes by the Unions would be impossible to justify, and he would cut off an obvious Tory line of attack that he is in thrall to the Unions who prop up Labour.

Brown likes to talk about being a 'British' politican. Here's his chance to prove it: can he battle the Tories, and win on their turf, at the expense of losing some ground to the SNP? If not, it shows that Scotland and Scottish politics is still his main focus, perhaps undermining a taunt that can be (and has been) levelled at him by the SNP (that he's sold out Scotland for his place in Downing Street), but giving fuel to the Tory taunt that he's a Scot running England, while the SNP run his own country.

And that opens up a whole new can of worms on the other kind of Union.