East Central Scotland
Highlands & Islands
Mid Scotland & Fife
North East Scotland
West Central Scotland
Well, the figures are done. We have an idea of how people may have voted had the Boundary Commission's revised proposals been in law by May 2007.
In reverse order:
Margo MacDonald would have been re-elected.
The Greens would have two MSPs on my figures.
The LibDems would stay level on 16: they would lose one in South Scotland but gain one in Lothian.
The Tories would go up by one seat to 18: they would stay level everywhere but North East Scotland, where the extra seat would fall in their favour.
Labour would stay on 46: they would gain one in East Central Scotland and the Highlands & Islands as a result of the re-arrangement of constituencies. However, they would lose a seat in Glasgow as a result of one constituency being eliminated, and a seat in West Central Scotland due to Barrhead being taken out of Eastwood.
You'll notice two things: I have the Tories gaining a seat, Labour, the LibDems, Greens and Margo staying where they are and I haven't mentioned the SNP. I think you know where I'm going here. The re-arrangement of constituencies costs them a seat in East Central but wins the party an extra List seat in West Central. In Lothian, however, I project that 324 LibDem votes in Edinburgh Central and 224 Labour List votes will conspire to cost the SNP a Regional seat. That sees the Party defending a notional 46 seats, not 47 as actually happened.
Can you imagine if this had actually been the case?
46-46. Bloody hell.
The words 'ferrets' and 'sack' spring to mind.
27 May 2009