04 April 2007

If this is right, I ought to do the Lottery this weekend...

Back when I looked at a possible route to Independence, and the key political events in the intervening period, I suggested that the split between the Scottish Tories and the UK Party would form a part of that, happening after the UK General Election.

Turns out, it might happen sooner than that: Mr. Eugenides has picked up this story from Conservative Home, in which he quotes an upcoming report from Fraser Nelson, suggesting that the initiative is going to come from David Cameron.

Given the Mundell Memo, the phrase 'In the old days, children like you were left to perish on windswept crags' springs to mind!

But should it? Well, given that the MSPs and Candidates will be the same, probably. That said, the relation between this new party and its rivals could be fascinating: the Tories are presently isolated, with no one listening to them, as their own film all but admits!

The new group might be able to reach out, and the SNP wouldn't have any rules against associating with it. Now, the new group might yet go down the hardcore Unionist route yet, and if it didn't, this would still doubtless come too late to affect the Coalition negotiations after the election (thus also ruling out SNP/Con deals at the Council level). But they would surely have a little more leverage in future negotiations, and it might, just might, give them the chance to start afresh, and have a little more influence in Scottish politics.

This is worth watching.

EDIT: Ewan is watching it as well.

3 comments:

Jeff said...

Yep, a very fine effort mate. When I read this story my first thoughts were how the heck did that MacNumpty person see that coming. Hindsight is 20/20 but calling such events in advance is indeed fine work.

Not to take the wind completely out of your sails, but to follow the analogy through, playing the lottery this week would result in you matching six numbers in about 7 weeks time ;)

Will said...

Well, this has been floated every couple of years or so, so I reckon it's always been a question of 'when' rather than 'if'.

And don't rain on my parade! :D

fitaloon's other half said...

I think that the Conservatives have been the surprise of the campaign so far. It is great to see some of the leftie political commentators giving her some well earned grudging respect.
The SNP missed a trick a while back by not being more open to working with the conservatives if as I suspect the SNP become the largest party in Holyrood.
I am not suggesting that they should have gone into coalition but a bit more groundwork over the previous parliament which would have enabled them to work on an issue by issue basis would have been a good start.
There is always the Libdems for coalition partner, but that would mean Aberdeen being consigned to another parliament without any sign of the much needed bypass?