EuroCountdown: Cyprus

MEPs now: 6
MEPs in June: 6

2004 results

Dimokratikós Sinayermós (Democratic Party) - 94,355 (28.2%) - 2 seats
Anorthotikó Kómma Ergazómenou Laoú (Progressive Party of Working People) - 93,212 (27.9%) - 2 seats
Dimokratikó Kómma (Democratic Party) - 57,121 (17.1%) - 1 seat
For Europe - 36,112 (10.8%) - 1 seat

Prediction

I would expect AKEL (European United Left/Nordic Green Left) to top the poll this time, having won the 2006 Legislative Elections and the 2008 Presidential Election, and making strong progress on re-unification talks with Northern Cyprus, thanks to the Trade Union links that President Christofias has built with his Turkish Cypriot counterpart, Mehmet Ali Talat. However, For Europe was a splinter group from DISY (EPP), and a number of members have returned to the fold, but some have in fact gone off to form a new party, the European Party (ALDE).

I suspect that the Democratic Party (ALDE) vote will hold steady, so it's the For Europe seat that's up for grabs, and I'd favour the European Party to get it.

The Movement for Social Democracy took 9% in the Legislative Elections, and could benefit from the shifting sands in the ex-For Europe camp, but my guess is that their vote will be heavily squeezed by AKEL.

Basically (and this is down to the paucity of seats more than anything), there will be minimal change in Cyprus, and what does come will be a result of For Europe disbanding, and the formation of the European Party, depriving the EPP of an additional seat, which will favour the ALDE.