Holyrood Opinion Poll

The Sunday Herald carries details of a YouGov poll carried out for the SNP, which shows something of a honeymoon period for the new Government. On the Constituency Vote, the SNP take 38%, to Labour's 31%, the Tories' 14% and the LibDems' 12%. The Regional Vote puts the SNP on 33%, Labour on 28%, the Tories on 14%, the LibDems on 10%, the Greens on 7%, the SSP on 5% and Solidarity on 1%.

By my reckoning, the SNP would stay on 47 seats, with Labour losing 4 (42 seats), the Tories taking 17 seats (their total in the Election just gone), the LibDems losing 4 (to 12 seats). The Greens would gain 6 (8 seats), and the SSP would return to Holyrood with 2 seats.

So what does this mean in terms of who's in and out? In Central, the SNP would take Airdrie & Shotts, Cumbernauld & Kilsyth, East Kilbride and Falkirk East from Labour, so it would be goodbye to Andy Kerr. The LibDem's Hugh O'Donnell lose his seat as well. Pauline McNeill would lose Glasgow Kelvin to the SNP, and that would clear the way for an SSP MSP on the Glasgow List. The LibDems would actually lose Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross and even Ross, Skye & Inverness West to the SNP, but they'd gain a Highland List seat, along with the Greens. The SNP would gain Linlithgow and Midlothian, but Labour would pick up Edinburgh South, but the LibDems would pick up a Lothian Regional seat, and the Greens would win a second seat there. Labour would win back Dunfermline West, but the LibDems would gain a Regional Seat to compensate, and Labour would lose a further seat to the Greens. Aberdeen Central would go the way of the SNP, along with Aberdeen South, Nicol Stephen's Constituency. Labour and the Greens would pick up the SNP's Regional seats. The SNP would win Galloway and Upper Nithsdale, and Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale, with the Tories gaining an extra Regional Seat, and the Greens returning to the South. While in the West, the SNP would gain Dumbarton, clearing a space on the List for a Green.