30 November 2006

MacNumpty Awards: Comical Ali award

Jack 'If you want independence, you'll neglect our schools and hospitals' McConnell

Considering that nearly everything uttered by the Labour Party in the last few months has been a rant about the joys of the Union, you'd think he'd shut up before accusing anyone else of obsessing about the Constitution.

Alex 'We're going to win Dunfermline & West Fife' Salmond

The SNP were on course for a stunning victory in the Dunfermline & West Fife By-Election, according to Alex Salmond. They came third. If I start betting on the horses, I'll avoid his tips, I think.

Nicol 'I can be First Minister after the Election' Stephen

Firstly, the LibDems, are third in every recent poll, and on current figures are unlikely to the largest party in either the Parliament or the Executive. Secondly, even McConnell has charisma when compared with Nicol Stephen.

Mary 'I'm not a Tory - honest!' Scanlon

Scanlon did everything she could to hide the fact that she was a Tory during the Moray By-Election, despite having been a Tory Regional MSP since 1999. She even produced letters supporting her from independent councillors, which they didn't write, and sent them to people who they didn't represent. Oops.

Tommy 'MI5, the SSP and Rupert Murdoch are working together against me' Sheridan

Where to start? OK, so the editorial team at The Sun doesn't like him. I don't think Murdoch's even heard of him. Maybe MI5 are trying to subvert him, who knows? And yes, the SSP do seem to have a grudge against him. But all three of them? Together? In a pact? I've heard of 'my enemy's enemy is my friend', but come on!

MacNumpty Awards: Worst Performance

Malcolm Chisholm MSP

Leaving aside Edinburgh's rejection of stock transfer last year, Chisholm has presided over rejections of Labour's key housing policy in Stirling, Renfrewshire and Highland. His pleas for Council tenants to hand over control of their houses to an Association have a smack of desperation about them and you get the feeling that no one's listening anymore.

Annabell Goldie MSP

I suspect that Tories are considering that David McLetchie wasn't such a bad leader after all, even if he did fiddle his taxi expenses. Goldie is a good 'Don't rock the boat'-type leader, but with the election looming, rock the boat is exactly what she needs to do. She's making absolutely no impact and the Tories seem less relevant than ever to Scottish politics.

Colin Fox MSP

Colin Fox is here simply for his poor handling of the Tommy Sheridan saga. He seemed to sit back and do nothing while his Party descended into two rival camps, divided over support for his predecessor. Then, come the trial, he decided to follow the lead of Rosie Kane, Carolyn Leckie and Frances Curran, and attempt to stick the boot in to Sheridan. They picked the losing side, and he opened himself up to a challenge for his job from Tommy. There followed a series of interviews which made him sound like a man on the edge and the only reason he held onto his post is Tommy Sheridan's decision to form his own party. And take most of the SSP's activists with him.

Linda Gorn

The LibDems were in the Moray By-Election to win, apparently. To help convince us that this was the case, they did an unofficial poll (of which we know only their topline figures) which had them within 3% of Richard Lochhead. Then they decided to quote lines from the Northern Scot which seemed to show the paper declaring Gorn as the likely winner. Except, the paper never said that: it was quoting local LibDem figures, and the LibDem declaration that the paper had endorsed them simply antagonised the Northern Scot, who immediately sided against the Gorn campaign. And where did the Gorn come in the final result? A distant third.

Mike Russell

I had to think long and hard about this one, but decided that his decision to publish Grasping the Thistle when he did wasn't his wisest move. It was supposed to be a piece of radical thinking; it would have handed the Tories a boost if they'd capitalised on it better. Russell is supposed to be one of Scotland's premier intellectuals, and the work at first glance appeared to contain a good deal of independent thought, potentially embarrassing to the SNP in advance of the election. Except it had been edited by Alex Salmond, and Russell, an SNP candidate next year, was only too happy to cave in. He lost a lot of credibility with his Leadership bid in 2004, but he's lost even more now.

MacNumpty Awards: Best Performance

Mohammed Sarwar MP

Sarwar on this list for his work in helping to bring the three youths involved in the Kriss Donald murder to justice, and for his mediation in the Molly Campbell affair. The old adage is that it's not what you know, but who you know, and this year, Sarwar has used his contacts in Pakistan to help people in two very grim situations.

Angus MacNeil MP

He may only have been in the House of Commons since May last year, but MacNeil's impact has been immense. He's the one who has lifted the lid on the 'cash for Honours' scandal and not only could his actions damage the credibility of both Labour and the Tories, but they could end up leading to a reform of rules on party political funding. A place in history after just 18 months. Impressive.

Willie Rennie MP

During the Dunfermline & West Fife By-Election, the Liberal Democrats were facing meltdown. Charles Kennedy had been hounded out of the LibDem leadership despite his popularity with the public, and the candidates to replace him were hardly setting the heather alight. In fact, the only reason the party got any press at all was because the papers gleefully outed Simon Hughes and uncovered Mark Oaten's rent boy scandal. And in spite of all that, LibDem Rennie won the By-Election.

The Conservative group on South Ayrshire Council

They get a nomination for becoming the first Tory group to gain full control of a local Council in Scotland since the new Councils were elected. A combination of lucky circumstances - the collapse of the Labour leadership - and good timing - making their move to replace both the Council Leader and Provost while they had the clear numerical advantage - shows a political sharpness that seems to have been lacking in the Scottish Tory Party recently.

Independence First

The Holyrood Public Petitions Committee might have poured cold water on their bid for an independence referendum, but this group seems more organised and prominent than previous pro-independence umbrella organisations. Their march on 30 September shows potential, and the fact that they got speakers from the SNP, SSP, Greens and Solidarity shows that they're being taken seriously. We're going to hear more from them, I suspect.

Nominations ready

Well, folks, I'm off to France on Sunday morning, so now's as good a time as any to unveil the nominations for the MacNumpty awards. I'll also be putting these on the Our Scotland Forum in the Featured Blogs section along with a poll for people to vote on their choice for each of the categories. So if you want a say in the outcome, then now's the time to register with the forum!

Anyway, the categories are:

Best Performance
Worst Performance
The 'Comical Ali' award for Most Ludicrous Statement of the year

Nominations coming up!

29 November 2006

Is Canavan about to go back to Labour?

According to the Herald, the answer may be yes, despite his promise that he wouldn't re-join the Labour Party while Tony Blair was its Leader (though, in fairness, he won't be the Leader for much longer). Labour's selected candidate, Dennis Goldie, has been pressured into standing aside for the Council elections, and with the Executive supporting Canavan's calls for a St. Andrew's Day holiday, there are signs that the MSP for Falkirk West may return to the fold. However, the paper also reports rumours that Canavan may stand down, and take a leading role in Glasgow's bid for the 2014 Commonwealth Games.

This would be the ideal solution for Labour. Canavan's return to the party may not affect Labour's overall total number of seats after the Election, but it may make the difference between in terms of how many seats (if any) Labour pick up on the Central Scotland Regional vote. A Canavan victory in Labour could prevent one of the Party's List candidates of getting a seat, so rather than getting an independent Canavan who is sympathetic to Labour on some issues, plus a (probably) reliable, loyal Labour MSP on the List, you get a nominally Labour MSP for Falkirk West who has what the leadership will view as a dangerous tendency towards independent thought plus an extra Regional MSP from another Party.

However, this is not without risks. Firstly, Labour would have to find a completely new candidate in time for the Election, unless they reverse their decision to ask Dennis Goldie to step aside. Either way, the SNP's candidate is Michael Matheson, who is already a Regional MSP. This could give him a higher profile than any Labour replacement for Canavan. Also, there's no guarantee that those who had switched to Canavan in the first place would vote for a Labour A.N. Other candidate should Canavan's name not be on the ballot paper.

Of course, we've been here before: Canavan was about to re-join the Labour Party years ago before he changed his mind. Labour could find themselves with Canavan still in the race, still as an indpendent and with no candidate to challenge him available unless they parachute someone in quickly. In that case, they'll be lucky to retain the 3rd Place they took in 2003.

22 November 2006

Chisholm defeated again

The tenants of Highland Council have rejected stock transfer in a referendum. This is the fourth defeat for the Executive's key housing policy, and all defeats have come over the past 12 months. As the Executive's Minister in charge of this policy the last two years, Malcolm Chisholm has a lot to answer for.

Logically, there are now three options:

1. A change in policy. Any U-turn now would show just how desperate the Labour Party was. If this were to happen, it would most likely end up as a part of the Labour Manifesto next year. If they stick with it, it'll cost them seats, and the most prominent casualty could be the new Education Minister Hugh Henry.

2. A change in presentation. Labour's efforts to sell the policy are failing, possibly because they focus on the bad things that might happen if people vote No. If the policy is that good, why can't they talk about the good things that could happen if people vote Yes?

3. A change in personnel. Jack McConnell has missed two oppportunities to sack Malcolm Chisholm, time is running out, and if Chisholm were going to go of his own accord, you'd have expected him to go after the Renfreshire defeat. However, a campaign is still going on in Inverclyde. That must surely be the nail in Chisholm's political coffin. However, Chisholm might get a stay of execution until the election. Even if McConnell is re-elected as First Minister, Chisholm may find that he loses his place in the Cabinet. Unfortunately, the damage is now too severe to sack him now: the policy is in tatters and replacing Chisholm won't make anyone support it. Continuing with the policy (or the current campaign style) will simply end the career of another Minister. No one will want Chisholm's job if it's seen as supping from the poisoned chalice: so if McConnell goes down this road he has to ditch the policy as well.

That is why the First Minister will take none of the options. He will stick with the policy, at least until the Election. If there are any more votes coming up after Inverclyde, the same old horror stories about houses falling apart under continued Council ownsership will be trotted out. And Malcolm Chisholm will be sent to the schemes, like a lamb to the slaughter. His reward will be a much reduced majority and dismissal from the frontbench, regardless of whether Labour is in Government or Opposition come May.

18 November 2006

In defence of Blogs

Like many bloggers, I'm concerned at what Matthew Taylor, Tony Blair's outgoing strategy adviser, had to say about blogs, and how he believes they're harming the political process. Here's the part I'm most concerned about:

"The internet has immense potential but we face a real problem if the main way in which that potential expresses itself is through allowing citizens to participate in a shrill discourse of demands.

"If you look at the way in which citizens are using technology and the way that is growing up, there are worrying signs that that is the case.

"What is the big breakthrough, in terms of politics, on the web in the last few years? It's basically blogs which are, generally speaking, hostile and, generally speaking, basically see their job as every day exposing how venal, stupid, mendacious politicians are.

He's having a go at three things: what bloggers are saying (i.e. 'this is what we want our Government to do'), how they're saying it (shrill discourse, apparently), and why they're saying it (to expose politicians as corrupt liars).

Firstly, what we're saying: well, our list of demands, apparently. People have been petitioning their politicians for generations. The difference is, that they went through formal channels and what happened next was largely up to whoever received the petition, whereas now, a blogger can suggest that it's time X was done, and other users can respond, allowing a widespread debate about what government policy should be to take place. Personally, I thought this was part of the democratic process (the people ask for X, the politicians provide X or get voted out), and that's what Labour's 'Big Conversation' was meant to be about. Of course, we now know that that was really about us proles paying tribute to the Dear Leader. But in any case, Matthew Taylor seems to be criticising people for wanting to speak out about the issues that concern them. On this, he is wrong.

Secondly, how we're saying it. OK, you won't find stirring political rhetoric, or 'literary salon'-style discourse, but it's a discussion, an open one, involving the people. You have a body of citizens talking about politics. That is in itself a good thing, however it's carried out. But if he's concerned about shrill tones from the people, what about from the politicians? And if you're worried about shrill tones on a blog? What about in real life? Remember, according to Tony Blair, if you want an inquiry on why UK troops went to war in Iraq, or a rethink on future strategy there, you want the insurgents to win. According to Jack McConnell, if you think the Scottish Parliament needs more powers, you're obsessing with the Constitution at the expense of schools and hospitals. That's not great discourse either, in fact it's an attempt to suppress debate on the issue at hand. The fact is, Mr. Taylor, the standard of political discourse from our politicians is low already, and has been for some time. The difference is that now it involves the general public.

Thirdly, our mission to expose politicians as lying crooks. Well, ever since the Profumo affair, the media have collectively ended their deferential approach to politicians and taken a more robust line. Do we want to expose every politician as corrupt liars? No, we want to expose the corrupt liars as corrupt liars. We don't expect perfection or sainthood from our representatives, but we have some basic standards. We would like it if politicians didn't take liberties with their expense accounts (we are paying for them, after all). We think that there are better criteria for Honours than giving (or loaning) large amounts of cash to a political party. We aren't pleased when a government plucks reasons to go to war out of thin air. I don't see these standards as unreasonable, and I think I have a right to complain publicly when they aren't met.

We shouldn't fear blogs, we should be excited by them. For the first time outside the newspaper letters page (and even that is subject to editorial control), the people have a medium to present their opinions to a wide audience, and to discuss ideas with people from across (and outside) the country. Now we are all journalists. We are all commentators. We all have access. That's a good thing. And for Mr. Taylor to complain that we aren't saying the right things, in the right way, with the right intentions is supreme arrogance. Mr. Taylor is wrong.

And, Mr. Taylor, if those ideas, showing as they do such contempt for the people and their opinions, have governed the political strategy you've offered Tony Blair in recent years, no wonder Labour is viewed as arrogant in power, and no wonder this third term Labour government was formed with less electoral support than any UK government since 1832. Let us hope you do a better job at the Royal Society for the Encouragement of the Arts.

Marriage of inconvenience

The Coalition is facing one of its periodic difficulties at the moment, thanks to two rows. The first concerns Karen Whitefield's Bill to prevent large stores from opening on Christmas or New Year's Day: Labour backbenchers are supporting the Bill, where the LibDems are cooler towards the idea. The Executive are trying to compromise, by suggesting that trading be banned only on Christmas Day and not New Year's Day. Labour backbenchers are threatening to revolt against any such plan.

The more serious tensions, however, come over the differing parties' plans for the Local Elections' ballot paper next May: Labour want candidates to be grouped by party. Other parties, including the LibDems, see this as a ploy to help ensure that First Preference votes for one candidate from a party transfer more to other candidates from the same party. Seeing as it's Labour who are more likely to have multiple candidates in Council wards, this is more likely to benefit them. You can see why the other parties smell a rat. However, the situation is so serious that Labour is now courting the Conservative MSPs for support. I don't see them getting it, unless the Tories have completely taken leave of their sens... never mind.

Wendy Alexander

The Herald claim an exclusive today, with the appointment of Wendy Alexander at Convener of the Finance Committee, replacing Des McNulty who has re-joined the Junior Ministerial team. On the one hand, Labour have one of their few real heavyweights at Holyrood in a sufficiently prominent position to assist with the attack on the SNP from now until May, something which Alexander will have no qualms about doing. On the other hand, Alexander is not Jack McConnell's most natural friend, and this position also gives her the power to criticise the Executive: although the Coalition has a majority on each of the Committees, they do not always give Ministers an easy ride, so Tom McCabe and George Lyon will now face one of Holyrood's smartest members in the chair. For me, the question is: does Alexander want to return to the frontbenches? If so, the next question is: does she sense, and want to take, the opportunity that she missed in November 2001, and pitch for the Labour Leadership? If the answer is yes, she'll probably show goodwill to McConnell for now and and concentrate her fire on the Opposition. If the answer is no, then she has nothing to lose (except, of course, her seat, which is reasonably safe), allowing her to pick the Executive's financial plans to pieces and make the First Minister's life a living hell from now until the Election. Well, she could do, but she won't. Finance is an important Committee to have the Convenership of. Labour have had it since 1999, and they always have people they trust in charge of it. She'll toe the line.

Petition

There'll be an update of news items that caught my eye a little later, but for now, I direct your attention to the following petition, as created by Tim Ireland of Bloggerheads fame.

We the undersigned petition the Prime Minister to stand on his head and juggle ice-cream.

I urge you to sign it. You have until 16 August to do so.

16 November 2006

Ask me no questions...

When is it acceptable to hold a referendum?

1. When your Party is divided on an issue, and you feel it is the best way of settling an argument without causing a damaging split. (cf. Labour's Common Market referendum, 1975)

2. When you're going along with a promise which you're theoretically committed to, but aren't all that enthusiastic about, and you want to try and slow things sown or stop them from happening in the first place. (cf. Labour's Devolution referendum, 1979)

3. When it's in your manifesto, you correctly assume that it's a policy people want, but you don't want to turn it into an election issue. (cf. Labour's Devolution referendum, 1997)

4. When you want something even though the people probably don't, but you're taking pelters for not offering a referendum and you risk losing seats to the Tories and UKIP. (cf. Labour's proposed referendum on the EU Constitution, which has not aken place and is not likely to do so)

When is it not acceptable to hold a referendum?

When the subject is independence, and it's the supporters of independence who want a referendum.

1,300 people have signed a petition calling for a referendum on independence, but the Scottish Parliament's Public Petitions Committee have opted simply to acknowledge receipt of it and leave it alone.

Jackie Baillie (Lab, Dumbarton) argues that a smaller percentage of voters supported pro-independence parties in 2003 than in 1999. Well, the SNP vote did go down, but the SSP, Greens and some independents all found their votes go up. While the 1999 Parliament had a number of pro-independence MSPs in the mid-to-high 30s, the 2003 had (and still has) a number in the low-to-mid 40s. That is an increase, not a decrease.

Michael McMahon (Lab, Hamilton North & Bellshill), the Committee's Convener, points out that we already know the Executive's position on independence and a referendum, so there's little point in asking a question to which we know the answer. He has a point, but to paraphrase Canon Kenyon Wright, the Executive might say, "We say no, and we are the state," but the petitions signatories argue, "We say yes, and we are the people." McMahon also says that people will make their views known in the Election.

Well, what we know of people's views right now is that a plurality of people surveyed by YouGov support independence, while 51% of those asked by ICM support it as well. We also know that the SNP are doing rather well in the polls. We also know that the Labour, LibDems and Tories say, "We think that people don't want independence, but we oppose any attempts to ask them."

Here's a final question, and I want readers to consider the answer: if the SNP wanted to go straight to independence without a referendum, do you think that the Unionist parties still wouldn't want the question put to the people, or would they be asking what the SNP are afraid of, and why the don't think a referendum is necessary?

Answers, as they say, on a postcard.

14 November 2006

Oops

Turns out McConnell's going with Deputy Justice Minister Hugh Henry. Problem is, the SNP have their eyes on Paisley South as well, so either McConnell's gambling on this boosting Henry's profile and helping him keep his seat, or he's going to look ridiculous come May. I know which one I'd pick.

In any case, McConnell is now looking for a new Deputy Justice Minister.

Peter Peacock resigns

The headline is pretty much self-explanatory: Peter Peacock has resigned as Education Minister, following symptoms comparable to those of a mild stroke. It seems that his decision is based not only on current health problems, but also on fears that his job will only make them worse as time goes on.

Talk is of course moving on to his replacement, and there is speculation that this might be an opportunity for a wider reshuffle which would involve clearing out the deadwood. Regular readers of this blog will understand that by deadwood, I mean a certain Communities Minister. Mark reckons that the Deputy Health Minister Lewis MacDonald will get the job. As to the wider reshuffle: I don't think that's going to happen, as 1) McConnell has had ample time and opportunity to dump Chisholm and has not done so; 2) firing Chisholm on the back of Peacock's health problems would be somewhat craven, even for the First Minister; and 3) McConnell would then have to find two replacements rather than one.

Regarding the Lewis MacDonald speculation, Mark writes:

MacDonald is currently MSP for Aberdeen Central which is an SNP target seat - if confirmed it would suggest Labour are worried as it would be seen as a move to boost his profile and take him away from a controversial portfolio where he has been responsible for trying to manage the dental crisis in Scotland.
This is perfectly possible, but I reckon that McConnell might not want to risk the embarrassment of losing a Minister in a key portfolio at the election - to lose Iain Gray in 2003 was bad luck, but to lose an Education Minister in 2007 would be careless. The way I see it, the FM has two options. Firstly, he could go for the uncontroversial, safe pair of hands approach. This would put Culture Minister Patricia Ferguson in prime position for the job, and then perhaps put MacDonald in there (a Ministerial portfolio to boost his profile, but not such a major one as to cause embarrassment if he loses his seat). Secondly, he could use this time to put a Natbasher General in a key position. In which case, step forward, Allan Wilson.

08 November 2006

John Home Robertson

According to the Herald, John Home Robertson plans on standing down from the Scottish Parliament. Many observers, including those within his own party, suspect that this is linked to the embarrassing revelation that he's renting a flat owned by his son at the taxpayers' expense. Senior party figures say it's to give the Party ample time to choose a successor. This is rubbish. If he wanted to give them that time, he'd have announced his intention last year, to give the local Party time to choose a candidate and raise their profile. That can't happen now, so I'd say it's the flat, and the claims that he was 'not expected to fight the election' look fairly weak.

The former MP is being linked with a return to Westminster, in the House of Lords. Again, Labour sources say this is to avoid suggestions of a fix, but 1) he's become an embarrassment to the Party and this is a good way of quietly getting rid of him; 2) the Flatgate-stand down-Lords chain of events stinks to high heaven; 3) if he were standing down for honest reasons he'd have gone earlier, and the announcement of a peerage would pass without comment or incident; and 4) if you haven't done something, you aren't the first to raise it by saying that you haven't done it. By denying a fix before it's even suggested, Labour have if anything increased the possibility that it is in fact a fix.

Of course, there's a wider point here: the possibility of a wave of Scottish peers has been raised on the Our Scotland Forum, in what is being viewed as an echo of 1707. If this is true, then it suggests that the parties are trying everything to enhance feelings of Britishness in Scotland to try and hold off the SNP attack. It won't work: firstly, few people would be able to recognise members of the Lords if they walked around with a neon sign over their head saying 'I'm a member of the House of Lords!'; secondly, those that care about the Lords are usually the ones who want to see the chamber abolished, so they won't warm to this announcement; and thirdly, the only reason the House still exists in its current form is because the House of Commons hasn't decided what should replace it.

Incidentally, Iain Gray has been linked with the seat. Like he's been linked with every vacancy since 2003. While Gordon Brown might like to see him in - he's Douglas Alexander's special adviser - I don't think it's going to happen; Gray's best shot would have been Edinburgh East & Musselburgh, and that particular ship may have sailed.

(By the way, I'm adding a new category to the awards: Daftest Political Statement of the Year. Submissions welcome.)